Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Both teams are coming off a BYE week, so they'll be much healthier than previous weeks.  I don't know if Brian Ferentz used the time to add any new wrinkles, but they could use them.  I'm a little nervous about this one from a Buckeye perspective.  Michigan showed the blueprint to beat them, but the Buckeyes haven't always been patient.  CJ has been a bit loose with the ball, which could be a problem against an opportunistic Iowa team.  I think Ohio State may come in a little clunky and allow Iowa to hang around for a half, before finally pulling away in the late 3rd quarter.

Interesting point.  Since East/West started in 2014, the Buckeyes have made the championship game 6 out of a possible 9 times.  Of those 3 times the Buckeyes didn't make it, Iowa made 2 of them.  Only 2016 featured a game without either Iowa or Ohio State, as Penn State beat Wisconsin.  So with Iowa looking unlikely to make it this year, that bodes well for the Buckeyes' chances to make it back this year.

Iowa will be the best defense by far that Ohio State has faced thus far. However, it will also be the worst offense that their defense has yet to face. So. Yeah. Ohio State by at least 21. Shoot, if Day wanted to just put the thing on cruise control and get to 17 points and then run every down and punt every 4th down he'd win 17-0 or 17-3.

Interesting bit of info I saw on the twitter, Ohio State is only one of 5 teams that have yet to face an AP ranked top 25 (current) in FBS.


https://twitter.com/dennisdoddcbs/status/1581800236162220032?s=20&t=JqoWDOdswIEleDehQx7u4Q

Iowa's defense seems to be getting a lot of credit for holding Michigan to "only" 27 points but I would not consider it up to Iowa's usual standards for defense.  Especially alarming was Michigan's first down run production against Iowa's defensive line. I have not seen a team run on Iowa like that in a while.  This is not a good sign of what's coming against OSU.    I am sure that Phil Parker has challenged his defensive line to do better.

Iowa's defense did seem to be back to its usual self against ILL, practically gift-wrapping it for Iowa's offense who gifted it right back to Illinois.  It's scary how close the Iowa defense was to single-handily winning the ILL all by itself,  as even Iowa special teams had an off-night.  But that was Illinois.  Iowa can sneak in those types of wins against Rutgers and Illinois, not OSU or Michigan.

Iowa's defense seems to be getting a lot of credit for holding Michigan to "only" 27 points but I would not consider it up to Iowa's usual standards for defense.  Especially alarming was Michigan's first down run production against Iowa's defensive line. I have not seen a team run on Iowa like that in a while.  This is not a good sign of what's coming against OSU.    I am sure that Phil Parker has challenged his defensive line to do better.

Iowa's defense did seem to be back to its usual self against ILL, practically gift-wrapping it for Iowa's offense who gifted it right back to Illinois.  It's scary how close the Iowa defense was to single-handily winning the ILL all by itself,  as even Iowa special teams had an off-night.  But that was Illinois.  Iowa can sneak in those types of wins against Rutgers and Illinois, not OSU or Michigan.

Obviously holding Michigan to FG's on two long scoring drives contributed to this and kept the game at least theoretically in reach for most of it but, IMHO, Iowa's defense performed admirably against the Wolverines. They very effectively limited explosive plays. Michigan's longest run was only 20 yards and their longest pass was only 29. Thus, Michigan was forced to work their way down the field and they did for three TD's but they were held to FG's twice and punted four times.

Michigan got 4.1 yards per carry and just ask Penn State how that sounds! The Wolverines got 7.6 per carry against PSU including two back-breaking 60+ yard runs. McCarthy completed 3/4 of his passes against Iowa but for only 6.5 per attempt / 8.6 per completion so it isn't like he was lighting them up with deep bombs.

I think the big question this weekend is whether or not the Buckeyes can run on Iowa as effectively as Michigan did. If the Buckeyes can then I think this game will get ugly because CJ will hit a similar percentage as JJ but for a lot more yards each and if Ohio State is also running effectively the Buckeyes will easily eclipse the 27 points that Michigan scored. If Iowa can make Ohio State one-dimensional by taking away the run then it will probably be a competitive game.

The problem, for me, with SoS is how it ranks schedules for teams who played opponents ranked as follows:

50  40  60  30  70

100 10 25 90 120

An elite team should win all of any of those, but the latter schedule at least has two games they could really lose.  For an elite team, your odds of beating #50 and #100 are not materially different.

Oh I agree.  It is subjective exactly where the cut-off is, but below a certain level it just doesn't matter whether you play #101 or #141.  I think it is best viewed in conjunction with "quality wins".  Computer generated SoS is going to tell you something close to how good a team's average opponent was and that IS important when you are comparing MOV.  MOV over 141 *SHOULD* be better than MOV against 101 but the record should be 1-0 either way.  

I already posted this in the Power Rankings thread but here are Ohio State and Michigan's 13 opponents as ranked by Sagrin with results:

Personally, when I look at it I think from somewhere between MSU and ArSt on down I just look to see if it was a blowout (they all were with the arguable exception of Michigan's 21 point win over #78 Indiana).  The games above there deserve a more serious look.  Here it is with your Bulldogs added in:

Georgia's games against their three best opponents look great.  The 46 point demolition of Oregon is even more impressive than Michigan's game against Penn State.  Georgia's 41 point win against USCe falls right between tOSU's 29 point win over MSU and M's 7 point win over UMD so again, great.  Georgia's 32 point win over Auburn is comparable to tOSU's 29 point win over MSU and better than M's 21 point win over IU so all good.  

Georgia also looks really good as measured against REALLY bad opponents.  They shutout Vanderbilt and Samford 55-0 and 33-0. 

The thing holding Georgia back (to the extent that they are, I mean, they are #1) is that their 4 point win over Mizzou and their 17 point win over Kent (in a game in which they scored late to make it look better than it was) are just NOT championship caliber performances.  Kirby's comments about Mizzou being a tough place to play are coachspeak BS and we all know it.  I'm pretty sure you'd agree with that.  

If we compare tOSU and Georgia based on their games against the best teams they have played, that goes to Georgia hands down as Oregon appears to be better than Notre Dame AND Georgia beat Oregon much more soundly than tOSU beat ND.  

If we compare them based on their MAC opponents, that does not look good for UGA.  Kent was within 10 of Georgia deep in the fourth quarter and Georgia only won by 17 despite scoring a late TD.  Ohio State played a better MAC opponent and dropped 77 on them in a game that was never in doubt and in which the Buckeyes' lead was never less than 42 in the fourth quarter.  

One could definitely argue that Mizzou and Kent were only two games but that is nearly a third of UGA's schedule and that third doesn't look good at all.  I consider Michigan's 21 point win over Indiana to be a weak showing and Kent is a worse team that UGA beat by less points.  Similarly, I consider Michigan's 7 point win over Maryland to be a weak showing and Mizzou is a worse team that UGA beat by less points.  

medina is the stats guru here....just saw something that Ryan Day is 26-1 vs the B1G with the only L last year to Michigan. WOW. 

He's going to get to 27-1. Iowa doesn't have a prayer, and it won't be pretty. Yeah the B1G might not be great, but 27-1 in 28 games is downright insane.