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Iowa State's Game 1 ended in lightening, in the 1st Qtr. after they took a 7-0 lead over S. Dakota State.

Iowa defeated the projected MAC Champ, NIU, 33-7.

Iowa looked good on defense. As usual, Iowa has kinks on offense. The passing game did  not develop. The running game kicked into gear in the 2nd half against NIU. The offensive line seemed to have performed well despite two OL starters being suspended.

I would say Iowa looks strong. But, Iowa State is probably good with a 6th year QB, and they were off to a good start when lightening struck. Thoughts and commentary . . .

¡El Ásico! has returned!  Last year was pretty fun, and I have a hard time seeing this year's rendition topping it, or even coming close to it. 

As always, it comes down to whoever controls the trenches.  Iowa gets Jackson and Wirfs back, so that will only help an already-solid line.  The defense did an outstanding job containing NIU, but I think it's a pretty fair assumption that ISU has a more potent offense than NIU's so the back seven can't be caught out of position... they got away with it a few times on Saturday.

Iowa had a pretty good game on the ground, so my guess is that ISU is expecting this and will try to make Iowa beat them through the air.  That's not to say that I don't think Iowa won't have success on the ground, especially in the second half.  Over the past 15-ish years, most of ISU's wins in the series are because they hang around and hang around some more, but for whatever reason Iowa just couldn't put the game out of reach and it would come back and bite them.  Iowa can ill-afford another slow first half, optimally they'll want to put ISU in a hole early and force them to throw and make mistakes, and to control the clock.

Iowa no longer enjoys the significant talent advantage it had a generation ago, ISU is actually beginning to out-recruit Iowa.  This is a dangerous and well-coached team.  For those who wager on CFB games, my advice is to stay away from this one.  Iowa is about a 3.5 point favorite, and since Kinnick usually has a bigger HFA than most venues, that seems to imply that if the game were played on a neutral field, ISU may actually be favored.

Both my heart and my head say Iowa wins, mostly because they have the better defense and can therefore do a better job of controlling the clock, but if the ISU QB gets hot, look out (and they have a strong RB of their own - but they haven't officially played anyone yet, and it's a tall order having their OL go up against a very stout defensive line that did a good job of getting in the backfield).  Iowa has a huge advantage in that they already played a game, but ISU may also have an advantage in that they have no game film for Iowa to study.  If I had to name a score, I'd take Iowa 26-21 or something like that.

Marc Morehouse report that RB Ivory Kelly-Martin and LB Kristian Welch not going to play today due to injury. RB should be fine. LB worries me. 

Well at least we got one W

As always, it comes down to whoever controls the trenches.

Iowa had a pretty good game on the ground, so my guess is that ISU is expecting this and will try to make Iowa beat them through the air.  T

Both my heart and my head say Iowa wins, mostly because they have the better defense and can therefore do a better job of controlling the clock, but if the ISU QB gets hot, look out (and they have a strong RB of their own - but they haven't officially played anyone yet, and it's a tall order having their OL go up against a very stout defensive line that did a good job of getting in the backfield).  Iowa has a huge advantage in that they already played a game,... If I had to name a score, I'd take Iowa 26-21 or something like that.

Your analysis was good until that last sentence where either you didn't give the defenses sufficient credit, or the offenses were overrated. Your prediction and mine would have been similar.
This game could have gone either way until about the last 8-minutes. A couple things seemed to have changed things for Iowa's inept offense coming down the stretch. (1) Iowa threw the ball down field in the 3rd Qtr. forcing the opponent to back up in coverage; it seemed to open things up a smidgen for running backs, and for the short passing game. (2) the offensive line seems to have worn down Iowa State's defense a little by the 4th Qtr.
Occasionally Nate Stanley needs to look in front of him and if he has the potential for a 15-20 yard ground gainer, he needs to take it. He gives defenses an extra coverage person by presenting no running threat and they give him 20-yadrs free pasture to run in and he won't take it. It not only hurts his running game, an extra coverage person hurts his passing game.