Penn State survived their first legitimate test of the year, and the most promising thing for Indiana last weekend was not their easy win over Georgia Southern, but Virginia going on the road and handling Boise State, making that Hoosier over Hoos win look a lot more impressive. True freshman Morgan Ellison, who was a late flip away from the MAC looked like an absolute steal in running wild last week. But a struggling Georgia Southern triple option rushing attack was finally able to get its legs against Indiana, which is troubling with the best running back in the country looming. Yes, there is the fluky factor, but Georgia Southern hadn't been running on anyone else, last in the Sun Belt in rushing, and they picked up 242 yards on 54 carries against Indiana. They rank dead last in the Big Ten in run defense, and that is a recipe for disaster. Perhaps because Michigan's defense is getting all the headlines, or because when you think Penn State, you think Barkley, but the Nittany Lion defense is suddenly back too. Franklin won it with offense last year, but the Penn State defense might be the most improved unit in the conference. They aren't going to completely smother you like Michigan will, but they'll bend, not break, and force a bunch of turnovers. They've forced a conference leading 10. When you take arguably the most talented team in the conference then add the intangible of best turnover differential, that's the type of thing championships are made from. Indiana's games have been all about ball security. They are 13th in the Big Ten in turnovers created with just 3, but 4th in turnovers, with just 4 themselves. They are one of only 4 schools in the FBS with no interceptions created, and the only team in the conference with fewer than 2. For them to have any chance in this one, that will have to change. But with the best running back in the nation going up against the worst run defense in the Big Ten, I see no reason for McSorley to take any unnecessary risks through the air.
PENN STATE 37, INDIANA 21
