Let's imagine the #5 team is really good, it happens. So, they'd have probably a 90% chance of beating #12, and then perhaps a 55% chance of beating #4, and a 50% chance of beating #1/2.
That's about a 20% chance, one in five, IFF that #5 team is really good. I don't think some of those UGA teams were very good.
So, if perchance that #5 team is really good every say 4 years, that boils down to a 5% chance per year.
I presume the #4 seed plays the winner of #5vs12 right?