Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

A lot of the time, I also hate running. 

But I just signed up for a half marathon. 

Marathon runners are like the people who think Romeo & Juliet was a great love story.  

The alleged first person to run that distance with haste dropped dead.  

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

I would have to understand why pricing has been on that trend. I have some theories, but I'm not close enough to that market to know.

What I do know is this:

Prices can never, long term, decline faster than production costs.

So pricing essentially will be based on the following, long term: cost of inputs + manufacturing/distribution costs + profit.

But there are other things which affect this. There's something known as Wright's Law
Wright's Law which basically states that as volumes increase, costs decrease. This is due to a lot of things, but battery production volumes have increased SIGNIFICANTLY over the last decade. Wright's law may suggest that operational efficiencies, supply chain efficiencies, fixed costs amortization across larger volumes, etc all improved to reach that 10% annual reduction. There could of course be reductions due to technology improvements allowing use of less costly anode metals or other aspects that brought it down as well.

However I would argue that Wright's Law reaches a steady-state or point of diminishing returns once volumes reach certain points, because at some point you've teased out the operational efficiencies and it just comes down to cost of inputs. So at some point battery cost declines might slow if they were driven by things like Wright's Law more than they were driven by inherent improvements in battery chemistry (i.e. storage capacity gains).

Which is a long way of saying that I'm not sure we can predict a solid 10% annual price decline for the next decade just because we saw it in the last decade. The market was going through a rapid volume increase and market maturation period, and eventually all of the low hanging fruit will already be picked.

You’re right about the costs coming down much slower. But, even if they do continue to drop incrementally as I think they will we could still see significant cost decreases over the next decade. 

You’re right about the costs coming down much slower. But, even if they do continue to drop incrementally as I think they will we could still see significant cost decreases over the next decade.

I agree that we could see that. And I think it's a key enabler to the adoption rates of EVs that some people are predicting. I'm not knowledgeable enough on the battery industry to predict it either way myself.

I just wanted to throw out a contrary viewpoint as a discussion point. There are many economic and technology factors affecting the future cost/pricing of batteries. And the battery/BEV industry is in a MUCH different place than it was in 2014. 

I'm in an industry (data storage) that has seen a significant technology upheaval over the past decade (growth of SSDs vs HDDs). And I see a LOT of people making very poor predictions about the future of this industry because they don't understand the fundamental economics and are mistakenly extrapolating trends in one area thinking it will hold in others. 

I see a lot of parallels to the BEV/ICEV industry changes. Based on how many other people I've seen go astray in the area of my own expertise, I am reticent to put a stake in the ground for my own beliefs and throw out these sorts of things to challenge others to think more deeply about their own...

The last time I entered a long race I had women pushing baby strollers passing me by

I was so slow the cops following the race made me get off the road

I was on a pub crawl and think I passed you 🥂

A lot of the time, I also hate running.

But I just signed up for a half marathon.

I don't much care for running, yet I (along with the Mrs.) will be running the Detroit International Half Marathon in October. Not because I love running (I much prefer biking and swimming), but because of the setting. Run over the Ambassador Bridge to Windsor, then along the Windsor waterfront to the tunnel, then through the tunnel back to Detroit.