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Topic: In other news ...

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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25354 on: July 20, 2023, 01:08:26 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on July 20, 2023, 12:55:32 PM
Well a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. So- 20 offers over asking price supports a higher appraisal. 
Exactly.

And we're not seeing those kinds of bidding wars as much we were two years ago. Still some, but not as nuts.

How are things on your side, and to your South? Still nuts?
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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25355 on: July 20, 2023, 01:09:42 PM »
20 offers is a good number to suggest the market is OK for at least a few months
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25356 on: July 20, 2023, 01:10:35 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 01:07:49 PM
Maybe so, but it's obviously a risky proposition.  The market could turn south in a hurry, and then spiral into a real mess.  Again.
There is no subprime lending to cause another 2008.

Mass layoffs and a deep recession would cause big problems.

There is no basis for thinking this will happen at this time.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25357 on: July 20, 2023, 01:11:48 PM »
I think these are "forced buyers", they are in a situation where they need a house soon, so they have to outbid everyone else, with very tight inventory.  It's not in my mind a rational market.

Will housing prices go down Atlanta | 11alive.com

Prices may be cooling off a bit now.

[color=var(--global-color-action)]realtor.com has the market essentially flat[/color] from a year ago - with a median listing price of $439,945 and a median sale of $435,000 in May 2022 versus $439,000 and $438,000 in May 2023.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25358 on: July 20, 2023, 01:15:40 PM »
Quote from: GopherRock on July 20, 2023, 12:04:10 PM
Inventory is still very tight here in MSP, especially at the lower sizes and price points.

There also seemed like there was a lot of resistance at $500K. Houses that were actually worth $500K sold at the price, but there were a bunch of pumped-up 350s or 400s that sat on the market for a long, long time.
Here in Mission Viejo, I have a search set up on Zillow.

Constraints are SFH, 3 bd / 2 ba or more, hide 55+ communities, max $1M list price. 

In a town of almost 100,000 people, there is only (1) property listed w/in that criteria. $995K. And it's only 1600 sf. 

(There's actually one more, at $899K, but when you look at the pictures it's not a SFH). 

Don't know what it will take to get a positive inventory shock at this point. It's been like this for a VERY long time. Nothing for sale. 
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25359 on: July 20, 2023, 01:18:20 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 01:10:35 PM
There is no subprime lending to cause another 2008.

Mass layoffs and a deep recession would cause big problems.

There is no basis for thinking this will happen at this time.
All correct.  
if we have a housing problem, it will not be anything like the one in the mid-2000s which was caused by unstable lending practices, speculation, and predatory lending   
None of those things exist now and in fact, I would say quite the opposite. The big problem we have now is lack of inventory and high interest rates so those who would sell are not willing to, leaving those who want to buy out in the cold.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25360 on: July 20, 2023, 01:19:44 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2023, 01:08:26 PM
Exactly.

And we're not seeing those kinds of bidding wars as much we were two years ago. Still some, but not as nuts.

How are things on your side, and to your South? Still nuts?
Price is stabilized for a while, but are now inching back up again mostly due to lack of inventory versus high demand. 40% of the buyers are cash buyers. Most of those are moving here from other states.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25361 on: July 20, 2023, 01:32:40 PM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25362 on: July 20, 2023, 01:36:57 PM »
Our building of 120 units has one on the market right now, which is about typical.  It's 1,000 sf listed for $470 K, it looks reasonably updated on the 14th floor.

The condo market of course is softer than single family.  A new condo building near us opened about a year ago with 1 bdr units starting at $865, the sign now says "$1.2 and up".  It's a high end building, SubZero and Wolff all that stuff.

I of course am a bit slow in catching up with these trends.  We have zero desire to move anywhere else.
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GopherRock

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25363 on: July 20, 2023, 01:44:01 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 20, 2023, 12:50:42 PM
My friend here who is an RE told me a few scary stories, houses getting 20 offers 20% over ask, and he warns the seller it shouldn't appraise that high, and then it does.  So, some fairly modest 60 year old ranch with 1400 sf goes on the market for $300 K and gets bid up and then appraised OK.
Our old house was similar to this. 14 bids, all of which were over what we thought was an aggressive posting price. We didn't take the high bid because they were 20 percent over post with no appraisal gap coverage. As it was, we were both worried sick that our house wouldn't appraise at the sale price.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25364 on: July 20, 2023, 01:48:53 PM »
Rising prices, mortgage rates push monthly payments to all-time high: report | The Hill

A problem could arise when this changes, if it does, "trees don't grow to the sky" etc.  If we hit an economic downturn and unemployment goes up, obviously some won't be able to cover their payments.  IF lending agencies get stuck with foreclosures, suddenly demand has dropped just as new supply appears, and prices start to drop, perhaps spiraling down rather quickly.  The Fed as usual reacts slowly.  Folks find their loans exceed any valuation of their property, some with seconds or credit lines secured by the house could end up getting hammered as well.  Then it all piles on top of each other and we have a bad drop.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25365 on: July 20, 2023, 01:52:52 PM »
Or, you know, if such a high % of the population can't afford to buy or rent a place to live start burning shit down.
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25366 on: July 20, 2023, 02:00:52 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 20, 2023, 01:52:52 PM
Or, you know, if such a high % of the population can't afford to buy or rent a place to live start burning shit down.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #25367 on: July 20, 2023, 02:02:05 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 20, 2023, 01:52:52 PM
Or, you know, if such a high % of the population can't afford to buy or rent a place to live start burning shit down.
What percentage would that be?  What is it today?
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