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Seems to me like everyone is losing their minds over a nothing burger here- and all this DA has done is hand the Trump campaign a gift on a silver platter for '24. His lead over DeSantis- his #1 contender for the '24 GOP primary has literally exploded since the indictment news came out.

Are you sure that this isn't the whole point?

If you look at the fundamentals, 2024 looks like a longshot for the Dems. Biden was never all that popular to begin with and is ancient, inflation is at rates not seen since I was in diapers, and the economy appears to be headed into recession. 

Given the above, Biden would likely be WAY behind the "generic Republican". Trump, however, changes things to Biden's considerable benefit in the general election, he is less popular and older. 

What I am saying is this, if I were setting betting lines for the 2024 election:

• Biden v Trump, I think Biden is at least a push.
• Biden v DeSantis (or basically any other Republican not named Trump), I'd install the Republican as a significant favorite. 

so...this whole Trump indictment thing....anyone want to take a stab at it without getting political?

from what I can gather it's a nothing burger from an overzealous Manhattan DA trying to make a name for himself. as the saying goes...a Manhattan DA could get grand jury could indict a ham sandwich. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets thrown out of court- and if it does go to trial I'll be shocked if he doesn't beat it.

From what I've read/understand...the case has statute of limitations issues- statute of limitations is 4 or 5 years- can't quite remember- this alleged crime took place 7 years ago. Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in NY state and the falsification of records would have to be related to some sort of fraud or other crime committed. Sounds like this DA is trying to shoe-horn the charge into a felony by claiming the pornstar hush money payment violated federal campaign-finance law- which is a federal crime which means this NY state DA has no jurisdiction.

The feds looked at the pornstar hush money case and said there was nothing there- and decided not to charge. The feds tried to bring a different but somewhat similar case against former Senator John Edwards- and he was acquitted. They would have to prove any hush money payments were made solely for the sake of the campaign- and Trump could easily argue they were made to protect his family and marriage. John Edwards actually used campaign funds to pay off his mistress- and he successfully argued in court he paid off his mistress to save his marriage- not for the sole purpose of saving his campaign. Trump could argue the same- and Trump used his own money- not campaign funds.

BTW the FEC found in their investigations that Hillary Clinton and her campaign violated federal campaign-finance law over that whole funding of the bullshit bogus Steele dossier- and she was ordered to pay an $8,000 fine and the DNC was ordered to pay a $120,000 fine. Just sayin'.

Seems to me like everyone is losing their minds over a nothing burger here- and all this DA has done is hand the Trump campaign a gift on a silver platter for '24. His lead over DeSantis- his #1 contender for the '24 GOP primary has literally exploded since the indictment news came out.

This case was always nothing but hot air- the potential case in Georgia was far more serious and legit- and that may be in trouble now imo. When he swats this one away- it'll really look like a political persecution if another state tries to charge him. NY Dems have handed this guy a gift with this charge. He's going to get off easily and this whole thing will just make him even more popular imo.

A few thoughts:
First, Biden won New York County (ie Manhattan) by 87-12 over Trump. Four years earlier Clinton carried New York County 87-10 over Trump. So Trump supporters make up roughly one in eight or ten people in the jury pool.

A randomly selected group of 12 New York County voters is probably made up of something like:

• 3-4 people who think Trump is guilty without even knowing the charge or the evidence and don't care what the charge or evidence look like.
• 3-4 people who are decidedly NOT Trump supporters but are at least somewhat open to the evidence.
• 3-4 people who are still NOT Trump supporters but respect the system enough that they aren't going to convict unless the DA actually proves his case beyond a reasonable doubt (although even here, thr definition of "reasonable" is probably impacted by the political dislike for the guy).
• 0-2 people who are Trump supporters of some variety which could be anywhere from "He's not guilty no matter what" (mirrors of the top group) to "let's see the evidence" (mirrors of group three).

This presents a massive problem for Trump's legal team. They can't use preemptive challenges to knock out political opponents because there will be too many of them. However, the DA very much can use preemptive challenges to probably eliminate at least most Trump supporters.

The case, as I understand it (through leaks and whatnot so take with a grain of salt) is very similar to the case that John Edwards beat. However, I think Trump's legal defense is better for two reasons:

• Trump used his own money (indirectly). In Edwards' case a political supporter paid off the mother of Edwards' child.
• Trump had a public persona BEFORE entering politics so he has a more plausible argument that the payoff was to protect the Trump public persona/image as opposed to the Trump campaign. Edwards didn't or at least not to the extent that Trump did so that argument was weaker when Edwards made it and it was successful for Edwards.

Brief explanation:
In both the Trump (as I understand it) and Edwards' cases a woman was paid what was effectively hush money. Neither campaign reported this as a campaign expense. That is the alleged campaign finance violation. Expenditures made on behalf OF THE CAMPAIGN must be reported.

Edwards successfully argued that the payment was to not upset his wife rather than to not derail his campaign.

the large cities are not 100% dem

the Rep dont have to get more harvesting votes just enough to lower the dem % a few points

every rep vote harvested is one more then they would have gotten

near proof of an election tampering issue?

I'm pretty sure there is "voter fraud" in every election that is at least state wide.  Some of it could be "technical" violations or unintended, like taking someone's absentee ballot to drop it off when it's against the rules to do so (the person is not a relative, whatever).  Some of it is intentional, ballot harvesting, but I think that is meant to impact some local election likely to be decided by a few votes.  The logistics of setting up a major voter harvesting operation "under the radar" strikes me as nearly impossible.

But that doesn't mean some folks don't "raid" old folks homes to collect absentee ballots.  But to do this to garner 10,000 of them or more seems impracticable.

I also doubt many "illegals" vote because their main objective is to stay off the radar.  I've read some folks registered inadvertently when they are green card types or students when they get a DL because they didn't understand the rules.  

Death by pterodactyl is a bigger problem than voter fraud and in the miniscule number of actual examples of it, it's almost always republicans.
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The disparity between the time spent on this and it's actual importance is astronomical.  FFS

Yeah, especially all three of those republicans in Chicago.

They give Chicago a very bad name, those 3 assholes.

Yeah, especially all three of those republicans in Chicago.

They give Chicago a very bad name, those 3 assholes.

yeah, don't want to get into a R vs. D thing- but I don't think it's a coincidence at all that the fastest growing states in the country are Florida, Texas, and South Carolina and the ones with the greatest population declines are New York, Illinois, and California.

Seems to me like any place that is super majority controlled by Dems turns into a literal shithole and fast. Just look at Detroit. Talk about corruption and decay. Most of the decaying, dying, shithole rat infested crime infested cities in the US are....super majority Dem controlled. Shocker. Not.