That's my hope. If I'd have had the financial ability to keep my house when I got divorced in 2016, I'd be sitting on a good $600K+ of equity right now. I could sell and buy a house for cash next door to 94 and not even worry about a mortgage.
Instead, I sold, and once getting my finances in order post-divorce, the market went thermonuclear and now I can't justify getting into it, despite the fact that I'm in a MUCH better financial position to buy.
Right now prices are insane because there's very little supply. People who own don't want to sell (especially here in CA) and reset their property taxes due to Prop 13. Selling a house they've got $600K in equity for $900K, to buy a slightly better house for $1.2M, might be something they can afford on the mortgage rate. But to see their property taxes triple makes it a much harder thing to justify.
But if you hit a tipping point... A recession, high interest rates, or both, there might suddenly be a glut of supply because people need to sell, and prices shoot down.
Affordability is, and always was, the key. I don't see the current market as affordable if we hit ANY tipping point...
there is literally a record low listings on MLS in Florida. It's
never been this low. It's
crazy. No one wants to sell their house and cash out. You'd think people would cash out and move somewhere else more affordable, but nope. Holding still. There are shit boxes from the 1940s, 50s, 60s, and 70s on the intercostal that people bought 30-40-50 years ago for
nothing that they are still holding on to dear life- when they could sell them for $1.5 to $3 million depending on the neighborhoods/cities- and they are holding still.
No one is selling shit. And believe it or not tons of people here buying stuff are from out of state and paying cash. I know someone who just sold a house for $950k -
cash - and the guy buying it is from PA - and the house should be worth $650k MAX based on the area/city it's in. Doing work on a house on the intercostal that isn't finished and someone from CA offered the homeowner (the house isn't even listed) $5+ million -
CASH - to buy the house as is and finish it. I'm doing work on another house on the intercostal that's nowhere near finished and the homeowner listed it for sale and the buyers are from Canada and paying just under $3 million and are going to change everything and finish it themselves. It's under contract.
There are some
counties in Florida where there are 200 or less single-family homes for sale on the MLS in an
entire county. Another part contributing to crazy high costs here is that there is almost no land left anywhere- everything is buy and tear down- which takes you a month plus just to get a demo permit. And also to build a house in Florida is
not an easy feat, the permits and regulations are among the toughest in the nation. Not like other states where you can get a building permit in a week. Takes 3-4 months minimum, no matter the county or city- and that's if all your shit is on point, together and tight and you hired a good architect. If you hire a shitty architect- could take you a
year or more to get that permit. You're not building shit in under a year here.
Lots of people are predicting it's going to last several more years like this here. But again, every market is different. But hey, if it does crash and you get into buying and flipping, be careful homie. I just read that California is proposing to
triple taxes on home flippers.
