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Topic: In other news ...

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14882 on: March 23, 2022, 08:38:05 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 23, 2022, 08:27:36 PM
with the housing market, it's simple supply and demand. there is literally no supply meanwhile there is huge demand in places like Texas and Sun Belt as people are fleeing California and the Midwest and Northeast in record numbers.

And I'd say we're kind of in a recession right now and still recovering from COVID, forced shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, 40-year record inflation- and the home prices still surging.

Housing market being hot right now is for completely different reasons which caused the crash in 2008. People aren't getting phony loans, the system isn't being rigged like last go 'round. People are paying straight cash homie, private equity is more involved than ever in purchasing single-family homes as well, and if people are taking out loans to purchase homes they're putting size-able amounts down- banks aren't just lending to anybody with a first and last name and pumping out garbage loans.
Yeah, and the market is RED-F$^#&@G-HOT here in California where people are supposedly fleeing too...

It's easy to say "it's different this time"--those are the scariest damn words of any asset bubble in existence. It's the point where smart money flees. 

It's not different this time. The root causes of the next crash won't be the same as the last one--but people can't afford these homes that they're buying... At least not if interest rates spike (and nobody can buy homes) or a recession hits and people need to sell their homes to people that can't buy them because of interest rates. 
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14883 on: March 23, 2022, 08:40:52 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 23, 2022, 07:23:19 PM
No, it didn't, it was 1981, Reagan was President.  I had started my job in June 1980 renting an apartment and found a condo we liked a year later and applied for that loan.

Times were quite unpleasant, stagflation, doubt dip recession, uncertainty about our future, it wasn't good.

We muddled through.  I actually got the condo, got a different loan from the developer.
Our gas shortage was under the Carter Admin as was most of the recession

They actually had gas rationing 

Within two years after Regan came in taxes were lowered and things got back to normal

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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14884 on: March 23, 2022, 10:19:04 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2022, 08:38:05 PM
Yeah, and the market is RED-F$^#&@G-HOT here in California where people are supposedly fleeing too...

It's easy to say "it's different this time"--those are the scariest damn words of any asset bubble in existence. It's the point where smart money flees.

It's not different this time. The root causes of the next crash won't be the same as the last one--but people can't afford these homes that they're buying... At least not if interest rates spike (and nobody can buy homes) or a recession hits and people need to sell their homes to people that can't buy them because of interest rates.
And then I strike. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14885 on: March 23, 2022, 10:22:53 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 23, 2022, 07:44:37 PM
oh man this is so true lmao....you can also add US mess up - they wind up on cable news


https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1506738826806444040?s=20&t=LtOUnB2HtUFYkSMfVvOZZg
That outcome for the Russians tends to produce decidedly mediocre to bad militaries. In part because "royal mess ups" tend to not stay in that category, but expand to, "mildly threaten the position of their superior due to competency."
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14886 on: March 24, 2022, 08:22:55 AM »
The outcome for most/many dictatorships is a poor military, Hitler was very prone to firing his best generals, or having them killed.  Bismark handled this aspect well but the German/Prussian army was simply better.  Kings have often feared their top commanders so, in part, they made them dukes and whatnot, or they were dukes, so they could temper their ambitions knowing the top slot was heriditary.  Napoleon's generals had often been sergeants before.  Some were good.

I think Russian leaders tend to feel insecure in their position and are more paranoid than most.  Even paranoids have enemies.
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14887 on: March 24, 2022, 08:31:49 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 23, 2022, 08:40:52 PM
Our gas shortage was under the Carter Admin as was most of the recession

They actually had gas rationing

Within two years after Regan came in taxes were lowered and things got back to normal


This is how I remembered it too. Took a few years to clean up after the peanut farmer. Still waiting for someone to have the nuts to abolish the Fed department of education.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14888 on: March 24, 2022, 08:35:16 AM »
The first two years under Reagan were not "fun", folks forget that.  You can of course claim it took him two years to clean up the mess, fine, but I distinctly recall how bad things were.  I was new in my job and many of my peers in school lost theirs over that period in the recessions.  I was glad I had signed on to a fairly stable company.

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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14889 on: March 24, 2022, 08:49:03 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on March 24, 2022, 08:35:16 AM
The first two years under Reagan were not "fun", folks forget that.  You can of course claim it took him two years to clean up the mess, fine, but I distinctly recall how bad things were.  I was new in my job and many of my peers in school lost theirs over that period in the recessions.  I was glad I had signed on to a fairly stable company.


Yep, and then 1983 came and interest rates started coming down - FAST - and inflation and unemployment came down. Housing sales from 83 on were in boom category.

It's probably gonna take more than 2 years to clean up the mess we have now, which has taken a little over a year to create - so far.
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14890 on: March 24, 2022, 08:57:14 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2022, 08:38:05 PM
Yeah, and the market is RED-F$^#&@G-HOT here in California where people are supposedly fleeing too...

It's easy to say "it's different this time"--those are the scariest damn words of any asset bubble in existence. It's the point where smart money flees.

It's not different this time. The root causes of the next crash won't be the same as the last one--but people can't afford these homes that they're buying... At least not if interest rates spike (and nobody can buy homes) or a recession hits and people need to sell their homes to people that can't buy them because of interest rates.
that's the $64,000 question. how high will interest rates wind up rising? 
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14891 on: March 24, 2022, 09:03:09 AM »
My prognosis is stagflation, high interest rates, negative or very low growth in GDP.  The Fed will be late to the trigger and make it worse, they already are.

We've had negative real interest rates for a decade now.  It's a big incentive to borrow and invest.  The recovery from 2008-9 was still on the slow side, but it did last a long time.  GDP growth rates were at a modest level even under Trump.  I think we're about to pay for all that, it could get bad.

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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14892 on: March 24, 2022, 09:49:44 AM »
Congress has often delegated authorities to the Executive Branch, including the ability to "wage war", as the President is Commander in Chief, and has authority to order the military to do this and that.  The War Powers Act was meant to constrain, and legalize, those authorities, 90 days etc.

Today there often is not time to respond to a military crisis by getting Congress to act.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14893 on: March 24, 2022, 10:41:44 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on March 23, 2022, 10:19:04 PM
And then I strike.
That's my hope. If I'd have had the financial ability to keep my house when I got divorced in 2016, I'd be sitting on a good $600K+ of equity right now. I could sell and buy a house for cash next door to 94 and not even worry about a mortgage. 

Instead, I sold, and once getting my finances in order post-divorce, the market went thermonuclear and now I can't justify getting into it, despite the fact that I'm in a MUCH better financial position to buy. 

Right now prices are insane because there's very little supply. People who own don't want to sell (especially here in CA) and reset their property taxes due to Prop 13. Selling a house they've got $600K in equity for $900K, to buy a slightly better house for $1.2M, might be something they can afford on the mortgage rate. But to see their property taxes triple makes it a much harder thing to justify. 

But if you hit a tipping point... A recession, high interest rates, or both, there might suddenly be a glut of supply because people need to sell, and prices shoot down. 

Affordability is, and always was, the key. I don't see the current market as affordable if we hit ANY tipping point...
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14894 on: March 24, 2022, 11:23:52 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 23, 2022, 08:38:05 PM
Yeah, and the market is RED-F$^#&@G-HOT here in California where people are supposedly fleeing too...
Seen any Florida plates in California lately?

I see a TON of the latter here.
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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14895 on: March 24, 2022, 11:26:00 AM »
‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, according to this analyst

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-housing-market-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-substantial-downshift-home-sales-may-drop-25-by-the-end-of-summer-according-to-this-analyst-11647884229
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