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Topic: In other news ...

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ELA

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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5153 on: April 23, 2021, 12:47:48 AM »
some folks are just plain idiots
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MrNubbz

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5154 on: April 23, 2021, 08:57:47 AM »
I detest Vegas in general.

I could maybe get on with hanging in a sportsbook on a fall Saturday watching a bunch of games with some money on several of them... But only with a group like is on this board lol...

Beyond that, I have absolutely no use for Vegas.
Same-same never been to vegas though but that's how I would do it.Sports wagering the odds are best - it's the vig that gets pissy.Saw a few pages back of Black Jack discussion.Years ago I watched the Docu - "Bringing Down the House" (based on the book) of the M.I.T Black Jack team.The professor that compiled and directed those teams based his formula on a UCLAs Math Professor formula findings from the '60s,worth the watch or the read.

 There was also a series I think it was Breaking Vegas or sum such about all sorts of cheaters.One was absolutely brilliant some dude took casino coins to a metalurgist who was able to somehow duplicate tokens for the machines.He used the exact composite metal make up and used computers to duplicate the exact outline of the coins and had the total down to the weight also.But every night money and coins are counted out and the House Dicks found something interesting - they were ending up with more casino coins than they had inventoried.For a couple of months this guy won because after payouts he had no investment sans the cost of creating the coins.And the casino(s) count were still showing more coins  than previously inventoried

Eventually they caught the guy with cameras.He was playing a 50.00 coin machine - when one of his coins got hung up he just walked away instead of flagging down help.That tipped his hand,the average gambler would want to be reimbursed.There were all sorts of clever stories like that.I miss the old HISTORY Channel
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 09:04:07 AM by MrNubbz »
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MrNubbz

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5155 on: April 23, 2021, 09:18:17 AM »
Must have not done anything about it. I have never in my career ever had a first time mistake by a client get stuck paying a penalty. More often than not I get it cancelled but always reduced. Now the interest on what is owed is another story.
 after going round and round with an IRS rep on the phone,they stuck to their guns I owed them.And since it was my oversight - though an honest one,prolly left w/o recourse.Since they put Big Al away I'm sure they'd have no problem calling my bluff
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5156 on: April 23, 2021, 09:45:16 AM »
Same-same never been to vegas though but that's how I would do it.Sports wagering the odds are best - it's the vig that gets pissy.Saw a few pages back of Black Jack discussion.
Yeah, sports betting is just like poker -- a skill game with a high variance due to inherent luck. 

It's also like poker in that the house doesn't care who wins. In sports betting the goal is simply to have 50/50 betting on each side of a wager, and in poker it's just to have action going. Sports betting it's the vig where the house makes its money, poker it's the rake. 

The problem with sports betting, though, is that you can't make money with a 1-2% advantage, because you need to win 55%+ of your bets to beat the vig. Which means the skill isn't in betting every game and hoping that you can win >55%, it's in identifying where the spread or O/U is significantly wrong and that you can figure that out with >55% certainty. 

Way back in 2006 I spent an entire season tracking picks on my old blog. I picked every Big Ten game--minus Purdue because I couldn't separate emotions--which is to say I *picked* Purdue but didn't count it to my season stats because I knew I couldn't be objective... I also would look around at the national scene and pick games where I thought there was something particularly interesting about the matchup or the line. 

Over the course of a season, I would pick 8-10 games per week, and I finished the year with a 62.5% record against the spread. Which I was, and am, pretty proud of.

The problem was that when I did the math, if I had been betting $100/game, over 3+ months of work my entire winnings for the year would have been ~$1K. Based on the number of hours of analysis, the risk, etc, I thought to myself "this is a grind--it's just not worth it."

MrNubbz

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5157 on: April 23, 2021, 10:15:41 AM »
Ya I used every measurable out there to beat the spread consistently even contrarian play - going against the public.It's still a rare breed of cat that can turn a profit - though it does happen.I use to look up % of day games/nite games won/lost,home/away,turf/grass,common opponents,injuries,you name it - just a grind and facting in that pay out - it has to be an ardent hobby - which it was for me for about 10-11 seasons
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5158 on: April 23, 2021, 10:29:20 AM »
I need to bone up on my sports gambling theory. Never got into it before, but I also didn't live near a Nevada resort town with several mega-casinos. 

I did watch a you tube video about how to rig the system for comped rooms, and it worked. I get 4 free nights every month. 

I don't do any gambling at all when I am there though, beyond the bare minimum that it takes in order to keep the freebies flowing. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5159 on: April 23, 2021, 11:01:25 AM »
A tactic I've done "for fun" is bet every dog in bowl season.  It seems to work.  The teams are generally closer in talent than The Public tends to think, and Name Teams get a boost which is not merited, usually.


utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5160 on: April 23, 2021, 11:03:34 AM »
A tactic I've done "for fun" is bet every dog in bowl season.  It seems to work.  The teams are generally closer in talent than The Public tends to think, and Name Teams get a boost which is not merited, usually.


No no, that's not it at all.  It's always a case of the name team just not wanting to be there.

FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5161 on: April 23, 2021, 11:10:47 AM »
the SEC is loaded with "name" teams
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5162 on: April 23, 2021, 11:11:33 AM »
No no, that's not it at all.  It's always a case of the name team just not wanting to be there.
especially if they are playing Texas
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utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5163 on: April 23, 2021, 11:12:36 AM »
especially if they are playing Texas
Yup.  Texas isn't a name team, so there's no reason anyone would ever get more "UP" to play the Horns than, say... Duke or Wake Forest.

FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5164 on: April 23, 2021, 11:13:11 AM »
especially if they are playing Texas
or Oklahomo
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #5165 on: April 23, 2021, 11:16:08 AM »
or Oklahomo
Nah, teams beat the okies in bowl games all the time.  Losing bowl games is kinda their thing.

 

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