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Topic: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?

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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #168 on: August 07, 2023, 10:47:01 AM »
Way upthread @Mdot21 and @bayareabadger directed us to a link that displayed a rank order of average viewers per game from 2015-2019. My school, Ohio State, was #1 followed by Bama then Michigan. Also note that Ohio State averaged just over 1M more viewers per game than Michigan.

It would be easy (and fun) for me to simply say "tOSU is #1, rah rah, we rule, you suck." Unfortunately, I think that misses an important point. Viewership is going to be swayed by how good a team is, particularly whether or not that team is in the NC conversation. To wit, Ohio State:
2015:

  • Defending National Champions, preseason #1.
  • Maintained #1 until November 8 when they dropped to #2, passed by Clemson.
  • Lost to MSU on 11/21 and dropped to #8 in the 11/22 poll. Even at #8, however, the Buckeyes were still very much in the NC race because MSU already had a league loss so had they lost to PSU, tOSU would have gone to Indy to face Iowa with a CFP berth likely on the line.
  • Climbed to #6, dropped to #7, beat #8 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl and finished #4.
2016:
  • Defending Fiesta Bowl Champions and #4 in prior final poll, preseason #6.
  • Climbed to #4 without playing a game (#3 OU and #5 LSU lost early).
  • Climbed to #2 before losing to PSU on 10/22.
  • Climbed back to #2 a few weeks later when #2 Michigan (Iowa), #3 Clemson (Pitt), and #4 Washington (USC) all lost.
  • Remained #2 into the CFP.
  • Finished #6 after getting blanked in CFP.
2017:
  • #6 in prior final poll, started #2.
  • Dropped to #8 and eventually #11 after an early loss to Oklahoma.
  • Climbed steadily to as high as #3.
  • Lost badly to Iowa on 11/4 and dropped to #11. They were, however, still realistically in the NC conversation as evidenced by the end-of-year moves when there was some controversy over 11-1 non-Champion Bama getting the final CFP slot over 11-2 B1G Champion tOSU.
  • Settled at #5, beat #8 USC in the Cotton Bowl and finished #5.
2018:
  • #5 in preseason poll as Defending Cotton Bowl Champions and #5 in prior final poll.
  • Climbed to #2.
  • Lost badly at Purdue and dropped to #11.
  • Climbed to #5 and could have made CFP with a bit of help here or there.
  • Beat #9 Washington in the RoseBowl and finished #3.
2019:
  • #5 in preseason poll as Defending RoseBowl Champions and #3 in prior final poll.
  • Went 12-0 in regular season and won B1GCG to enter CFP as #2.
  • Lost CFP semi-final and finished #3.

The Buckeyes were realistically in the NC race for every game from 2015-2019 except:
  • A #7/8 Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame
  • A #5/8 Cotton Bowl against USC
  • A #5/9 RoseBowl against Washington


Compare Michigan:
2015:
  • No votes in prior final poll (finished 5-7), received votes in preseason poll.
  • Lost their opener to Utah.
  • Climbed to #12 before losing to MSU ON 10/17 and were effectively out of the NC picture from then on.
  • Lost badly to tOSU, beat #19 Florida in the Citrus Bowl and finished #12
2016:
  • Preseason #7, climbed to #2.
  • Lost to Iowa on 11/12 but only dropped to #4.
  • Entered THE GAME as #3 and lost to #2 tOSU thus missing the B1GCG and CFP.
  • Lost as #6 to #10 FSU in the Orange Bowl and finished #10.
2017:
  • Preseason #11.
  • Climbed to #7.
  • Dropped to #17 after losing to MSU on 10/7.
  • Dropped another two spots after needing OT to beat Indiana on 10/14.
  • Dropped out of the poll and NC picture completely after getting blown out by PSU on 10/21.
  • Climbed to #19 before losing to Wisconsin on 11/18.
  • Lost to tOSU then lost Outback Bowl to USCe and finished unranked.
2018:
  • Preseason #14.
  • Lost opener to Notre Dame and dropped to #21.
  • Won 10 straight and climbed to #4.
  • Entered THE GAME at #4 and lost badly to #10 tOSU to fall to #8.
  • Lost badly to #10 Florida in the Peach Bowl and finished #14.
2019:
  • Preseason #7.
  • Dropped to #10 after needing OT to beat Army.
  • Lost badly to Wisconsin on 9/21 and dropped to #20.
  • Climbed to #16 then lost to PSU on 10/19 and dropped to #19. At this point, with two B1G losses, they were effectively out of the NC picture.
  • Climbed to #10 before losing badly to tOSU on 11/30 and dropping to #17.
  • Lost Citrus Bowl to #9 Bama badly and finished #18.


My point here isn't to recount tOSU's successes and Michigan's struggles from 2015-2019 (that was fun though).

My point is actually more complimentary to what we tOSU fans call TSUN, The School Up North. They had 1M less viewers per game than tOSU from 2015-2019 but Ohio State was a NC Contender for nearly that entire time while Michigan was some of the time but they also spent some time unranked and spent large portions of the 2015, 2017, and 2019 seasons completely out of the NC picture.

Agree with all of this.  I was going to say something similar (but a lot shorter ;) ). 

I think it also says something that my favorite school has been absolutely awful for almost 1.5 decades, and is still in the Top 10 for viewership.  THAT is an example of the helmetosity that we all talk about-- deserved or not, it leaves a lasting impression on fans.


Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #169 on: August 07, 2023, 10:48:58 AM »
Way upthread @Mdot21 and @bayareabadger directed us to a link that displayed a rank order of average viewers per game from 2015-2019. My school, Ohio State, was #1 followed by Bama then Michigan. Also note that Ohio State averaged just over 1M more viewers per game than Michigan.

It would be easy (and fun) for me to simply say "tOSU is #1, rah rah, we rule, you suck." Unfortunately, I think that misses an important point. Viewership is going to be swayed by how good a team is, particularly whether or not that team is in the NC conversation. To wit, Ohio State:
2015:

  • Defending National Champions, preseason #1.
  • Maintained #1 until November 8 when they dropped to #2, passed by Clemson.
  • Lost to MSU on 11/21 and dropped to #8 in the 11/22 poll. Even at #8, however, the Buckeyes were still very much in the NC race because MSU already had a league loss so had they lost to PSU, tOSU would have gone to Indy to face Iowa with a CFP berth likely on the line.
  • Climbed to #6, dropped to #7, beat #8 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl and finished #4.
2016:
  • Defending Fiesta Bowl Champions and #4 in prior final poll, preseason #6.
  • Climbed to #4 without playing a game (#3 OU and #5 LSU lost early).
  • Climbed to #2 before losing to PSU on 10/22.
  • Climbed back to #2 a few weeks later when #2 Michigan (Iowa), #3 Clemson (Pitt), and #4 Washington (USC) all lost.
  • Remained #2 into the CFP.
  • Finished #6 after getting blanked in CFP.
2017:
  • #6 in prior final poll, started #2.
  • Dropped to #8 and eventually #11 after an early loss to Oklahoma.
  • Climbed steadily to as high as #3.
  • Lost badly to Iowa on 11/4 and dropped to #11. They were, however, still realistically in the NC conversation as evidenced by the end-of-year moves when there was some controversy over 11-1 non-Champion Bama getting the final CFP slot over 11-2 B1G Champion tOSU.
  • Settled at #5, beat #8 USC in the Cotton Bowl and finished #5.
2018:
  • #5 in preseason poll as Defending Cotton Bowl Champions and #5 in prior final poll.
  • Climbed to #2.
  • Lost badly at Purdue and dropped to #11.
  • Climbed to #5 and could have made CFP with a bit of help here or there.
  • Beat #9 Washington in the RoseBowl and finished #3.
2019:
  • #5 in preseason poll as Defending RoseBowl Champions and #3 in prior final poll.
  • Went 12-0 in regular season and won B1GCG to enter CFP as #2.
  • Lost CFP semi-final and finished #3.

The Buckeyes were realistically in the NC race for every game from 2015-2019 except:
  • A #7/8 Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame
  • A #5/8 Cotton Bowl against USC
  • A #5/9 RoseBowl against Washington


Compare Michigan:
2015:
  • No votes in prior final poll (finished 5-7), received votes in preseason poll.
  • Lost their opener to Utah.
  • Climbed to #12 before losing to MSU ON 10/17 and were effectively out of the NC picture from then on.
  • Lost badly to tOSU, beat #19 Florida in the Citrus Bowl and finished #12
2016:
  • Preseason #7, climbed to #2.
  • Lost to Iowa on 11/12 but only dropped to #4.
  • Entered THE GAME as #3 and lost to #2 tOSU thus missing the B1GCG and CFP.
  • Lost as #6 to #10 FSU in the Orange Bowl and finished #10.
2017:
  • Preseason #11.
  • Climbed to #7.
  • Dropped to #17 after losing to MSU on 10/7.
  • Dropped another two spots after needing OT to beat Indiana on 10/14.
  • Dropped out of the poll and NC picture completely after getting blown out by PSU on 10/21.
  • Climbed to #19 before losing to Wisconsin on 11/18.
  • Lost to tOSU then lost Outback Bowl to USCe and finished unranked.
2018:
  • Preseason #14.
  • Lost opener to Notre Dame and dropped to #21.
  • Won 10 straight and climbed to #4.
  • Entered THE GAME at #4 and lost badly to #10 tOSU to fall to #8.
  • Lost badly to #10 Florida in the Peach Bowl and finished #14.
2019:
  • Preseason #7.
  • Dropped to #10 after needing OT to beat Army.
  • Lost badly to Wisconsin on 9/21 and dropped to #20.
  • Climbed to #16 then lost to PSU on 10/19 and dropped to #19. At this point, with two B1G losses, they were effectively out of the NC picture.
  • Climbed to #10 before losing badly to tOSU on 11/30 and dropping to #17.
  • Lost Citrus Bowl to #9 Bama badly and finished #18.


My point here isn't to recount tOSU's successes and Michigan's struggles from 2015-2019 (that was fun though).

My point is actually more complimentary to what we tOSU fans call TSUN, The School Up North. They had 1M less viewers per game than tOSU from 2015-2019 but Ohio State was a NC Contender for nearly that entire time while Michigan was some of the time but they also spent some time unranked and spent large portions of the 2015, 2017, and 2019 seasons completely out of the NC picture.
yep. call it the fair weather fan effect. when you're really good- you're gonna get more eye balls. also....more people going to watch you just because they hate you and want to see you lose. I've watched Bama games before just to root against them. Not gonna lie. also: going to get more betting action when you're really good- and you're going to get more bettors laying money on your team and therefore watching more of your games.

my guess is Michigan's viewership has gone up in 2021 and 2022 because: they been winning the B1G and making the playoff. 

FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #170 on: August 07, 2023, 10:50:14 AM »
ND get's some "I hope they lose" viewers 
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Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #171 on: August 07, 2023, 10:51:32 AM »
ND get's some "I hope they lose" viewers
there is no doubt about that. I watched the last half of the Marshall game laughing at those catholic freaks with joy the entire time.

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #172 on: August 07, 2023, 10:57:39 AM »
there is no doubt Ohio St and Michigan both have massive fan bases that stretch the nation. their regular season match up was the only regular season college football game to make the list of the top 100 most watched tv programs in the US. The other 4 college games in the top 100 most watched tv programs were playoff/bowls; UGA-OSU semis, Michigan-TCU semis, UGA-BAMA title game (from the 2021 season but played in calendar year 2022), and OSU-Utah Rose Bowl (same situation as UGA-BAMA). 

So to recap....OSU involved in 3 of the most watched CFB in all of tv and Michigan involved in 2. That's why the B1G tv contract is so fkn fat. They have the big brands that bring the eye balls. Which is why if I had to guess they probably want ND desperately. Only team out there to potentially grab that brings eye balls at super high clip. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #173 on: August 07, 2023, 11:11:36 AM »
Agree with all of this.  I was going to say something similar (but a lot shorter ;) ). 

I think it also says something that my favorite school has been absolutely awful for almost 1.5 decades, and is still in the Top 10 for viewership.  THAT is an example of the helmetosity that we all talk about-- deserved or not, it leaves a lasting impression on fans.
yep. call it the fair weather fan effect. when you're really good- you're gonna get more eye balls. also....more people going to watch you just because they hate you and want to see you lose. I've watched Bama games before just to root against them. Not gonna lie. also: going to get more betting action when you're really good- and you're going to get more bettors laying money on your team and therefore watching more of your games.

my guess is Michigan's viewership has gone up in 2021 and 2022 because: they been winning the B1G and making the playoff.
So when looking at these numbers we need to make some kind of mental "how good were they relative to their normal" adjustment. I agree with @utee94 , Texas being top-10 here despite not being very good is impressive.  I think @Mdot21 has part of it when he calls it the fair weather fan effect but there is more than that.  As he went on to state, the extra viewers when you are really good are not just fair weather fans, they are also anti-fans and just general CFB fans.  If I have no dog in either fight, I'm going to watch a top-5 matchup over a top-10 matchup and a top-10 matchup over a game between unranked teams.  

A great example is the bowl games played by tOSU and Michigan at the end of the 2017 season.  Neither team made the CFP.  Ohio State was barely out at #5 while Michigan was completely out.  Michigan lost to USCe in a completely inconsequential Outback Bowl between two unranked teams.  Ohio State beat the USC in a Cotton Bowl between #5 tOSU and #8 USC.  We don't need to look it up to confidently assume that a LOT more people watched tOSU/USC in the Cotton Bowl than M/USCe in the Outback Bowl but that doesn't "prove" that tOSU has more viewers than M because we also need to adjust for the facts that:
  • USC has more viewers than USCe,
  • The Cotton Bowl has more viewers than the Outback Bowl, and
  • #5 vs #8 is almost always going to out-draw nr vs nr.  

I don't think there is enough information here to confidently say that tOSU has more viewers than M.  However, there are some adjustments that obviously need to be made.  For example:
  • Clemson was #9 from 2015-2019 with 2.67M viewers per game.  I actually think that is pretty weak when you consider that 2015-2019 is pretty clearly the best five-year stretch in Clemson Football history.  
  • Oregon was #26 from 2015-2019 with 1.34M viewers per game.  That is also pretty weak considering how good Oregon was relative to their normal over that stretch.  
That brings me to my underlying point.  We quite simply bought high with respect to Oregon.  

Temp430

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #174 on: August 07, 2023, 11:18:37 AM »




Stanford has won the NACDA Director's Cup 26 times since it was started in 1993-94.  I would call Stanford an athletic powerhouse that should be welcomed into the Big Ten.
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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #175 on: August 07, 2023, 11:24:19 AM »
That brings me to my underlying point.  We quite simply bought high with respect to Oregon. 

Yup, for sure.

I won't say it "boggles my mind" because I understand what the B1G was trying to do here, it just seems like a really unnecessary stretch.  I've been almost as candid with my opinion of how poorly Oregon fits the B1G, as MDot has.  Like many others around here, I thought expansion to the SE made a lot more sense than further consolidation out west, for the B1G's future plans.

So my question is, why NOW for Oregon?  Why not wait a bit and digest the UCLA/USC addition and see how things shake out.  All I can think of is that:

A) The B1G powers that be don't think they're going to be able to spring any of the ACC schools any time soon and
B) They were worried that if they didn't snag Oregon and Washington now, those two schools would get locked into another GOR with the PAC and their window for any expansion at all, would close.

I guess.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #176 on: August 07, 2023, 11:37:56 AM »
Yup, for sure.

I won't say it "boggles my mind" because I understand what the B1G was trying to do here, it just seems like a really unnecessary stretch.  I've been almost as candid with my opinion of how poorly Oregon fits the B1G, as MDot has.  Like many others around here, I thought expansion to the SE made a lot more sense than further consolidation out west, for the B1G's future plans.

So my question is, why NOW for Oregon?  Why not wait a bit and digest the UCLA/USC addition and see how things shake out.  All I can think of is that:

A) The B1G powers that be don't think they're going to be able to spring any of the ACC schools any time soon and
B) They were worried that if they didn't snag Oregon and Washington now, those two schools would get locked into another GOR with the PAC and their window for any expansion at all, would close.

I guess.
I think it was a colossal mistake based on shortsightedness.  I referred to is as "buying high" borrowing that term from the financial world because IMHO, it is perfectly analogous.  Oregon athletics have been VERY good lately but that is largely because of the financial and other support of one VERY wealthy alum who happens to be 80+ years old.  Phil Knight isn't going to live forever and there is no guarantee that Oregon's athletics will continue to perform at their recent level without his backing.  

That wouldn't be so bad if Oregon was from a more populous (and preferably more CFB-interested) state where we'd at least get a slew of CFB fans but they aren't.  Oregon is the #27th most populous state and we all know that CFB isn't as big on the Pacific Coast as it is in the midwest and SE.  

All of that wouldn't be so bad if Oregon had great academics but they don't.  First I should state that I have no idea what Oregon's undergrad academics look like and I don't care.  When we B1G types talk academics we are talking about research because there is where the money is.  Oregon's research is worse than Notre Dame's.  

We we added a school from a fairly low-population state that has dubious long-term athletic prospects and terrible academics.  WTF?  

I completely agree with @Temp430 , see above.  Stanford has a LONG history of solid athletics.  They are also REALLY good academically, and they are in the Bay Area which it would be nice to have a toehold in even though those folks generally aren't much into CFB.  

It should have been Stanford and Washington.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #177 on: August 07, 2023, 12:07:33 PM »
That wouldn't be so bad if Oregon was from a more populous (and preferably more CFB-interested) state where we'd at least get a slew of CFB fans but they aren't.  Oregon is the #27th most populous state and we all know that CFB isn't as big on the Pacific Coast as it is in the midwest and SE. 
I do think Oregon is a more CFB-friendly situation than either California or Washington. USC/UCLA was a lot bigger in SoCal before the Rams came back and the Chargers moved north. UW football is IMHO by FAR second fiddle to the Seahawks. But Oregon doesn't have an NFL team. So there is a little bit less competition for eyeballs/attention. 

The question, IMHO, is whether they can sustain the "brand" that they built on the back of Phil Knight's money when that flow stops. I noticed that when you look at that CFB fandom by zip code web site that we all used to talk about, here in SoCal, Oregon was typically the #3 school behind USC/UCLA in almost every listed zip code. Their brand is strong. 

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #178 on: August 07, 2023, 12:08:54 PM »
I think it was a colossal mistake based on shortsightedness.  I referred to is as "buying high" borrowing that term from the financial world because IMHO, it is perfectly analogous.  Oregon athletics have been VERY good lately but that is largely because of the financial and other support of one VERY wealthy alum who happens to be 80+ years old.  Phil Knight isn't going to live forever and there is no guarantee that Oregon's athletics will continue to perform at their recent level without his backing. 

That wouldn't be so bad if Oregon was from a more populous (and preferably more CFB-interested) state where we'd at least get a slew of CFB fans but they aren't.  Oregon is the #27th most populous state and we all know that CFB isn't as big on the Pacific Coast as it is in the midwest and SE. 

All of that wouldn't be so bad if Oregon had great academics but they don't.  First I should state that I have no idea what Oregon's undergrad academics look like and I don't care.  When we B1G types talk academics we are talking about research because there is where the money is.  Oregon's research is worse than Notre Dame's. 

We we added a school from a fairly low-population state that has dubious long-term athletic prospects and terrible academics.  WTF? 

I completely agree with @Temp430 , see above.  Stanford has a LONG history of solid athletics.  They are also REALLY good academically, and they are in the Bay Area which it would be nice to have a toehold in even though those folks generally aren't much into CFB. 

It should have been Stanford and Washington. 
10000000%

847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #179 on: August 07, 2023, 01:23:16 PM »
It should have been Stanford and Washington. 
No doubt. The B1G really f'd this up.

I was in LA all weekend and the people there could not believe Oregon got it. The USC people are NOT happy with this.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #180 on: August 07, 2023, 01:25:38 PM »
If you ranked B1G members in terms of VALUE to the conference, where would Oregon rank?  At the bottom?  In the middle?

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #181 on: August 07, 2023, 01:37:49 PM »
If you ranked B1G members in terms of VALUE to the conference, where would Oregon rank?  At the bottom?  In the middle?
Near the top in the MWC.
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