| Bret Bielema makes his first appearance in Camp Randall since a 21-14 overtime loss to Ohio State on November 17, 2012. Bielema capped that season by winning Wisconsin's third consecutive Big Ten title, a program first, and to date, Bucky's last Big Ten title. Paul Chryst has now coached the exact same number of games in Madison as Bielema did, and is 67-25, compared to 68-24 for Bielema. So he has essentially had the same amount of overall success, although the conference titles have eluded him. In fairness, one title was a shared title, in the pre-CCG era; one was during Ohio State's one down year between Tressell and Meyer, and the last was when Wisconsin got to go the the CCG despite finishing third in the division, due to Ohio State and Penn State's penalties, and got to play a relatively mediocre 4 loss Nebraska team. Chryst has reached the CCG three times, just hasn't won it, but also hasn't gotten to face a team like 2012 Nebraska. None of that matters. What does matter is just how good Wisconsin's defense is. Ohio State is going to torch a lot of defenses, but the fact that they put up 52 on Wisconsin, 45 in the first three quarters, is fairly concerning. The Buckeyes have had an elite offense ever since Urban Meyer arrived in 2012, and yet those 45 points through 3 quarters is more than they've allowed in a full game against Ohio State during that time, save for the one Big Ten Championship Game. They had never even allowed more than 38 otherwise. It wasn't even C.J. Stroud and his elite group of wideouts that did it, the Buckeyes churned them on the ground. As much of a talent as TreVeyon Henderson is, Chase Brown is quietly perhaps the best college back in the conference. Even in Illinois' loss at Indiana, Brown gained 199 yards on 5.5 ypc, and Illinois outgained the Hoosiers by nearly 100 yards, but turned the ball over 4 times, including 3 fumbles (none of which were Brown's). Wisconsin's running game got things a little bit going last week, although the overall stats are slightly tainted by a meaningless 75 yard touchdown run once Wisconsin was down 40 late. But the Illini have been quite stout against the run. While the Badgers are not the ground game machine they usually are, I still think they are far better than anything Illinois has seen. Illinois' upset win in 2019 is the only time since 2007 that Illinois has stayed within single digits, let alone won, but this also might be Illinois' best team since then too, so the opportunity is there. Both of those games were in Champaign. Illinois hasn't won in Madison since 2002, and while they can do it, they need to play a clean game, and capitalize on the chances Wisconsin gives them. Problem is Wisconsin is top 10 in the nation in takeaways, and Illinois is in the bottom 10 in giveaways. Illinois might outgain Wisconsin, but they won't win. |
