UC is probably, as noted, about the 30th best team in the country, generally able to beat teams 50 and lower, and competitive with teams like Memphis, but not at all Ohio State (or any elite G5 team). I imagine Penn State is 3 TDs "better" than Memphis if motivation is equivalent (and it may not be).
Talent matters, unless you have a very quirky offense that team's can't adjust to on defense, and in bowl season that matters less. But lesser talented teams often upset "better" teams in bowl games.