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Similar to Watt for Wisconsin is Justin Tuck for Notre Dame. Left with a year of eligibility remaining, missed out on the 2005 season. Do the Irish lose in OT against MSU--giving up 44 points--with a pro bowler on their d-line? Does the Bush Push happen?

And how does that team look at the end of the season? Better than the team that Ohio State handled (heh--it was reading comments about that game that brought me here).

First (and to date only) home game my daughter has been to. She was 1 and up way past her bedtime. It ended in a loss, but man, it was a great atmosphere during the comeback (that fell short).

I always wonder if Emmitt had stayed for Spurrier's first year.  His carries might've been down, but his YPC might've gone up, thanks to a wide-open passing threat.  And despite the loss of carries, he'd have caught the ball a lot more and maybe helped his draft stock.  

It just would've been neat to see it.

Now you're just trying to be an ass...but my post says exactly what yours does, so....you failed?  The wide-open passing attack would have given defenses something else to key on besides Emmitt left, Emmitt right, Emmitt up the middle - which is what Florida's offense was before Spurrier.

And yes, that, combined with fewer carries would have very likely increased his YPC, as I already said in my previous post.

so you have an example that you agree with that dispels your "mean" argument

Have I been typing in Chinese?  WTF???  How are you misunderstanding everything so completely?

I'm not sure how else to explain what I'm saying.  Regression to the mean comes with greater sample size, not smaller.  

Similar to Watt for Wisconsin is Justin Tuck for Notre Dame. Left with a year of eligibility remaining, missed out on the 2005 season. Do the Irish lose in OT against MSU--giving up 44 points--with a pro bowler on their d-line? Does the Bush Push happen?

And how does that team look at the end of the season? Better than the team that Ohio State handled (heh--it was reading comments about that game that brought me here).

That Notre Dame team is a hard one to analyze.  First off, if you read the names on the schedule (USC, Michigan, Tennessee, Washington, MSU, Pitt, Syracuse, BYU, Stanford) it sounds like they played a REALLY tough schedule.  They didn't, but it wasn't their fault:
Among ND's opponents that year:

• USC was great, 12-1 with the loss coming in the BCSNCG.  
• Navy was Navy (8-4)
• Michigan was barely over .500 (7-5)
• BYU was .500 (6-6)

Every other pre-bowl opponent was below .500:

• 5-6 Pitt
• 5-6 MSU
• 5-6 Purdue
• 5-6 Tennessee
• 5-6 Stanford
• 2-9 Washington
• 1-10 Syracuse

In an average year scheduling USC, Michigan, Tennessee, Washington, Stanford, MSU, Pitt, Syracuse, BYU would assure you of no worse than one of the toughest SOS's in the country.  In 2005 it just didn't work out that way.  

FWIW:  That 2005 season was the closest we ever came to a complete melt-down during the BCS era.  It is funny because, as it turned out it was probably the easiest decision the BCS ever had but it was VERY close to being a complete mess:

USC barely beat ND in South Bend on the famous "Bush Push" play at the end of regulation.  The play started with USC down 31-28 and 0:07 remaining.  USC had the ball on the ND one second and goal but they had (I think) no timeouts.  If they had been stopped short of the goal line time would have expired and ND would have won 31-28.  

Texas barely beat tOSU in Columbus.  Leading by six (22-16) the Buckeyes had a first down at the Texas 29 yard line with a little over six minutes to go.  They ended up barely missing a 50 yard FG on 4th and 14 from the Texas 33.  The FG was just short from 50 yards out and would have been easily good from four yards closer.  Had Ohio State made the FG to take a two-possession 25-16 lead with just five minutes remaining it is extraordinarily unlikely that Texas could have pulled off a win.  

If you flip those two results then at the end of the 2005 regular season there would have been six one-loss teams from major conferences.  Here they are with their pre-bowl records (in alternate scenario), records against the other five (same), and other high-end games along with who their loss was:

• 11-1 USC, 1-1 beat Oregon by 32 on the road, lost to ND by 3 on the road.  Also beat 10-2 UCLA by almost 50 points.  
• 11-1 Texas, 0-1 lost to Ohio State by ? on the road.  Next best opponent was 9-3 TTech whom they beat by 35.  
• 10-1 PSU, 1-0 beat tOSU by a TD at home.  Lost to 7-5 Michigan on the road.  Next best opponent was 10-3 Wisconsin whom they beat by 21.  
• 10-1 tOSU, 1-1 beat Texas by ? at home, lost to PSU by a TD on the road.  Next best opponent was 7-5 (either Iowa-won by 25, MN-won by 14, NU-won by 41, or M, won by 4).  
• 10-1 ND, 1-0 beat USC by a FG at home.  Next best opponent was 7-5 Michigan at home which they won by a TD.  
• 10-1 Oregon, 0-1 lost to USC by 32 at home.  Next best opponent was 8-4 Cal whom they beat by a TD at home.