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Topic: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

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Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #294 on: August 06, 2024, 05:45:17 PM »
The Koch bros are small potatoes compared to Blackrock.

FearlessF

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #295 on: August 06, 2024, 10:00:31 PM »
well, whoever the big taters are
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #296 on: August 07, 2024, 07:04:19 AM »
I'm actually surprised this type of down - up - down fluctuation doesn't happen MUCH more often
The market is so huge it's very difficult to influence a major part of it in this way.  One factor is all the algorithms "traders" use that fire buys and sells in microseconds.  This is one reason the market can react as it did the past couple of days, major downs usually, not so often ups without news.  There supposedly are circuit breakers now after the day crash of 1987.  
And of course, once a major player starts selling some specific stock, the price inherently drops quickly, and they may end up selling on the way down, and then buying on the way back up becomes a zero sum game.  There isn't all that much stock available near asking price.  I think manipulation happens, but it's with the algorithms and it's in the fractions of fractions.  

For example, there are "carry trades" where outfits borrow currency from a country with low interest rates and buy a short term bond fund from a country with higher interest rates, the spread may be a percent or two, but it's real money if it works and you can cover the vigs.

FearlessF

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #297 on: August 07, 2024, 07:43:01 AM »
1 or less % is fine, if you have volume
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Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #298 on: August 07, 2024, 07:45:09 AM »
Volume, and turnover rates.  You might be making 0.5% every week.  It adds up.

The odd thing, to me, is that managed funds over time do worse than market averages with very very few exceptions.    Some do well in a year or three and then track back to average.  This is why ETFs have become so popular, along with low fees.  You'd think a managed fund by "professionals" would do better, but largely they do not.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #299 on: August 07, 2024, 08:11:53 AM »
Volume, and turnover rates.  You might be making 0.5% every week.  It adds up.

The odd thing, to me, is that managed funds over time do worse than market averages with very very few exceptions.    Some do well in a year or three and then track back to average.  This is why ETFs have become so popular, along with low fees.  You'd think a managed fund by "professionals" would do better, but largely they do not.
They don't because all those professionals are up against . . .

Other professionals. 

Also, the reason they tend to track back to market is because the managers index the fund after a good year. Example:

Let's say I manage the Medinabuckeye1 fund and in year #1 I beat the S&P by 10%. The safe play for me is to then match the fund's holdings to the S&P and I'll thus match the S&P each year after. However, my year #1 was better so my 5-year and 10-year returns will stay ahead of the benchmark for five and 10 years respectively. 

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #300 on: August 07, 2024, 08:35:38 AM »
The main reason I'd pay some professional one percent is to get one percent extra return, versus buying an ETF and paying a tenth of a percent.

I think I own one mutual fund that is managed because it hold stocks in Europe, for some diversity.

Since I retired and took over my own IRA, I've beaten the market pretty handily over ten years, maybe a couple were even.  But I had some very lucky picks, I know that.

A small "fund" can be heavily influenced by a couple lucky picks, in my case, Apple and Costco, neither of which my previous "pro" wanted to buy.

We don't pay managers of elite sports teams to be average for very long, maybe the White Sox might.

Hawkinole

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #301 on: August 08, 2024, 12:27:06 AM »
We don't pay managers of elite sports teams to be average for very long, maybe the White Sox might.
The White Sox actually have a paid general manager, but I don't know why. They could have paid me $75k and I would gladly outperform him due to my love and affection for the culture of the White Sox, and would have done much better. I knew coming into this season that the new GM hadn't done a thing.

847badgerfan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #302 on: August 08, 2024, 01:50:35 PM »
This is good.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/mortgage-rates-drop-to-15-month-low-e744aa2c?st=pjabbqhrmh8vjt1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/mortgage-rates-drop-to-15-month-low-e744aa2c?st=pjabbqhrmh8vjt1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Hawkinole

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #303 on: August 09, 2024, 12:49:36 AM »
The Fed really must act at its next meeting. The Aug. 8 unemployment claims report was better than expected, so the sky hasn't fallen yet. It is drifting lower. The latest inflation report was -.1% for June, as released July 11. We will get another read, in a few days. 
Locally, gasoline prices are volatile ranging from 3.23, to 3.59 (today) in the past 10-days.
That said, when the Fed's goal is 2% inflation per year, and when the recent inflation #s are < 0%, the Fed must consider today's data, and place less emphasis on a yearly average. I don't blame them too much for waiting, but perhaps there should be monthly meetings, not every six-weeks meetings. A lot can happen in a month.

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #304 on: August 09, 2024, 08:24:12 AM »
They can have emergency meetings if they deem one needed.  I don't think we're there at this point.  The stock market seems to be shaking off the declines and recovering a bit.  (Futures are down slightly at the moment, not enough to be real.)

Oil prices are a decent indicator also, I think, and while they have declined a bit, they also appear to have stabilized and moved up a bit.


Honestbuckeye

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #305 on: August 09, 2024, 03:51:09 PM »
I continue to read about layoffs every day, in so many industries.


Layoffs coming to Stellantis Warren plant as Ram 1500 Classic production ends (detroitnews.com)

Tech giants, media companies downsizing their workforces&nbsp; (businessreport.com)
Tech giants, media companies downsizing their workforces  (businessreport.com)
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #306 on: August 09, 2024, 04:22:29 PM »
I continue to read about layoffs every day, in so many industries.
Layoffs coming to Stellantis Warren plant as Ram 1500 Classic production ends (detroitnews.com)

Tech giants, media companies downsizing their workforces&nbsp; (businessreport.com)
Tech giants, media companies downsizing their workforces  (businessreport.com)
IMHO, this is the key wildcard in the POTUS election this fall.  

As per usual in politics, the key issue is perception not reality.  Does the electorate perceive that we are entering a recession or will they perceive that we are in a recession when they vote?  

One thing that changes the equation is early voting.  20-some years ago nearly everyone voted on election day which this year is Tuesday, November 5.  In Ohio early voting starts four weeks ahead of the date of the election so Tuesday, October 8.  That could be a really big deal that could cut either way.  Suppose that the economy continues to slow down, early voting presumably helps the Democrats because it will be not as bad when voting starts as it is on election day.  OTOH, suppose that the economy starts perking up in mid-to-late September.  In that case early voting would presumably help Republicans because perception typically lags reality so by the time people realize that the slowdown has reversed, a lot of them will have already voted.  

FearlessF

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #307 on: August 09, 2024, 09:02:48 PM »
As per usual in politics, the key issue is perception not reality.  Does the electorate perceive that we are entering a recession or will they perceive that we are in a recession when they vote? 

does the electorate ever deviate from the people's vote?
I understand that they could
and understand Trump may have asked them to deviate 4 years ago
« Last Edit: August 10, 2024, 09:47:51 AM by FearlessF »
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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