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Topic: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

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Gigem

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #252 on: August 05, 2024, 07:36:47 AM »
I’ve mentioned this in other threads. I started with a pension and 401k. They stopped the pension for me last year. Now, it will only accrue, not grow. They did increase what they match in our 401k. Problem is that they only recently started to match 401 to what you made on overtime and bonuses. My pay had far exceeded my salary due to OT every year I’ve been with the company, sometimes by double. 

Yes, I worked a lot of hours. 

Now that I’m salary I missed that window. So I get screwed both ways. 

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #253 on: August 05, 2024, 07:45:36 AM »
Another bad day on Wall Street according to the futures.


Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #254 on: August 05, 2024, 07:52:34 AM »
Before I retired, I interviewed about five "money managers".  One claimed his wife worked where I did and he understood their retirement plan (which is unusual).  He didn't  have a clue.  Another one had no clue either, which I found remarkable in a city as smallish as Cincinnati with some major corporations on board.  I finally found one I liked.  My direct contact had worked with the huge bank that "administers" our retirement plan.  When I went to get my money out and into an IRA self administered, they mailed me about 80 pages of tripe.  (They first wanted to charge me $86 to mail the stuff "express".)  I met with my manager dude, and he started throwing out pages and pages of the crap they mailed me.  He said a normal person gets all this and starts to read through it all, and gets tired and puts it off.  Every day they delay is another $$$$ for the huge bank.  He got it down to four pages, which were where I had to sign.  He filled out the "transfer to" parts (to my IRA with Schwab).  It worked, but then, because I retired after a part year of "benefits", I got another tranche and we repeated the process.  It was worth the 0.9% I was paying them to sift through the BS.

So, then I watched how they invested, and asked a LOT of questions.  My contact person liked questions and was patient with me explaining this and that.  After three years, I told him I got it and could manage myself, thanks a ton.

As an employee, I was locked into their plan of course with few options, as soon as I retired, I got out of all that company stock I was saddled with, good thing too.

847badgerfan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #255 on: August 05, 2024, 09:35:08 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/japan-stocks-fall-sharply-after-weak-u-s-jobs-data-yen-strengthening-3903689f?st=jxuthqq82kr5d3l&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/japan-stocks-fall-sharply-after-weak-u-s-jobs-data-yen-strengthening-3903689f?st=jxuthqq82kr5d3l&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #256 on: August 05, 2024, 09:40:03 AM »
I couldn't logon to my account just now, heavy traffic I suppose.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #257 on: August 05, 2024, 09:50:13 AM »
Couldn’t agree with this more. I don’t think most people grasp the reality of the underlying giant red flags of the mess to come. Jobs reports consistently revised downward the following months, with bulk of the jobs coming in healthcare and government jobs. insurance costs skyrocketing because of the lag at properly assessing inflation, avg auto loan up over $700, property taxes escalating in so many places.

what has kept everything afloat has been the ease to access credit. Many consumers staying afloat by accessing more and more credit with creditors approving everything under the sun. As the reality starts to hit, companies will tighten budgets, unemployment will rise and credit markets will tighten. Call it gloom and doom. I call it looking at the data and seeing the inevitable on its way.
The credit issue is ominous in several ways;
  • People with lots of debt are more likely to cut spending when they feel a recession coming. This, of course, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. 
  • In a recession, people with a lot of debt will continue reduced spending in order to pay down debt longer. This can contribute to a recession being both longer and deeper than otherwise. 


Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #258 on: August 05, 2024, 09:50:18 AM »
Recession: What is the Sahm rule and why is everyone talking about it (cnbc.com)

Global stock markets are in the grip of a deepening rout, prompting investors to turn to one of the most historically accurate indicators to determine whether the U.S. economy is in recession.
The so-called “Sahm rule” has observed without fail that the initial phase of a recession has started when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is at least a half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low.

The time-tested indicator, which is widely recognized for its simplicity and ability to quickly reflect the onset of a recession, was named after economist Claudia Sahm when it was first introduced as part of a policy proposal in 2019.
A weaker-than-expected July jobs report on Friday officially triggered the Sahm rule. The data led investors to worry that the Federal Reserve may be behind the curve in cutting interest rates to fend off a recession.
The rule’s inventor, however, is not convinced.
“We are not in a recession now — contrary the historical signal from the Sahm rule — but the momentum is in that direction,” Sahm told CNBC by email on Friday. “A recession is not inevitable and there is substantial scope to reduce interest rates.”



medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #259 on: August 05, 2024, 09:56:46 AM »
My IRA topped a mark, a round number, I never thought I would see just last week, and I mentioned to the wife I should sell it all and put the money into CDs and be done with it.  Of course, I didn't.
One thing your Financial Advisor *SHOULD* tell you is to consider the horizon on your investments. 

What I mean is this:
Upthread @MaximumSam mentioned having a kids college fund for a kid about to start college. That I probably would want in T-bills or CD's (cash equivalents) because all of it is needed within 4-6 years so there isn't enough time to ride out a stock market drop.

An IRA, 401k, or other retirement account is different. Even if you are already withdrawing from it, your horizon is still almost always longer than 4-6 years. Your horizon is your remaining lifespan or yours AND your wife's. Even if you are 80+ your actuarial lifespan is probably more than 4-6 years.

847badgerfan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #260 on: August 05, 2024, 10:02:07 AM »
The FED really screwed up by holding the rate in its last meeting.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #261 on: August 05, 2024, 10:19:23 AM »
My wife's pension is the equivalent of having about $2.5 million in a shoebox (today), not gaining any interest and no COLA attached to it. So, I don't really know what it's "worth" in 20 years.

The good news is it's fully funded (actually 125 percent) so Baxter Healthcare has done a nice job.

About 3 years after she started, they stopped pensions. Not a lot of people on the program anymore.
Some days I wouldn't wish my headaches on anyone but . . .

Rental property is a great inflation hedge that you might want to consider. I'll explain the reason:
Say you buy a duplex for $350,000. Typically you put 25% ($87,500) down and borrow 75% ($262,500). At today's rates (30 fixed, 7.54%) your monthly payment is ~$1,850. 

Now say you rent the units for $1,700/mo each. That is $3,400 in monthly rent but figure 95% occupancy (roughly one moth vacant every two years per unit) so your average monthly gross is ~$3,230. Your mortgage payment of $1,850 chews up the bulk of that (57%) leaving you with ~$1,400/mo for insurance, taxes, repairs, etc. You'll roughly break even.

Breaking even may not sound enticing but the break-even is a cash measurement. There are two other benefits:
  • You are building equity. As you pay down the loan you have greater equity each month.
  • You'll show a tax loss. At the beginning almost your entire mortgage payment will be deductible interest rather than non-deductible principal. Your taxable income is Cashflow+Principal-Depreciation so you'll show a big tax loss.
Here is where inflation comes in and why rental property is a great inflation hedge:

Suppose prices double. 
  • Rents double from $1,700/mo to $3,400/mo so your average gross is now $6,460.
  • Insurance, taxes, repairs, etc double from $1,400 to $2,800 leaving $3,660.
  • The mortgage payment DOES NOT change and is still $1,850 leaving $1,810 in positive monthly cashflow.
  • Additionally, the value of the property doubles but the mortgage balance remains unchanged so you now owe $262,500 on a $700,000 property and have $437,500 in equity. This is a 500% increase. Even after adjusting for the 100% inflation you've still made 250%.


Honestbuckeye

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #262 on: August 05, 2024, 10:20:48 AM »
The FED really screwed up by holding the rate in its last meeting.
I don’t blame them.  

you got to pay the piper for what has been going on.   You can’t print and spend money forever and not have consequences.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

847badgerfan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #263 on: August 05, 2024, 10:24:51 AM »
I don’t blame them. 

you got to pay the piper for what has been going on.  You can’t print and spend money forever and not have consequences. 
I agree, of course. Some of the bleeding needs to stop.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #264 on: August 05, 2024, 10:39:33 AM »
Rental property is a great inflation hedge that you might want to consider. I'll explain the reason:

I also look at it as one of the few ways that ordinary people can use other peoples' money (OPM) to build their own wealth. 

You need a certain floor to get there, but once you have the foot in the door, you use the bank's money to buy the property and then use your tenant's money to pay off the mortgage. Even if you're only break-even from an annual cash flow perspective, you're the one who ends up with the expensive asset (property) at the end of the process. Even if you start out mildly below break-even, rising rents in most places will ensure that after a few short years, you're break even or even cash flow positive. As long as you have the cushion to cover it, it's still fine to start below break even. 

They say that real estate is a poor asset compared to inflation in general. However, if you're using OPM to buy it, that's not a bad thing. You can use OPM to buy real estate. You can't [easily] use OPM to invest in the stock market. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #265 on: August 05, 2024, 11:04:28 AM »
I also look at it as one of the few ways that ordinary people can use other peoples' money (OPM) to build their own wealth.

You need a certain floor to get there, but once you have the foot in the door, you use the bank's money to buy the property and then use your tenant's money to pay off the mortgage. Even if you're only break-even from an annual cash flow perspective, you're the one who ends up with the expensive asset (property) at the end of the process. Even if you start out mildly below break-even, rising rents in most places will ensure that after a few short years, you're break even or even cash flow positive. As long as you have the cushion to cover it, it's still fine to start below break even.

They say that real estate is a poor asset compared to inflation in general. However, if you're using OPM to buy it, that's not a bad thing. You can use OPM to buy real estate. You can't [easily] use OPM to invest in the stock market.
Exactly!

Here is a more detailed 10-year example of of the example I used for @847badgerfan above.  Here I have assumed 7.2% annual inflation which roughly halves the value of money in 10 years (rule of 72):


By the time you reach year 10 you are making almost $19k/yr in cash but only paying tax on $14k due to depreciation and your equity is up by $386k on an investment of just $87,500.  

Sensitivity analysis, what if there was no inflation?

It is still not a terrible investment.  You are losing a small amount of money per year but you are EASILY making that back in tax savings by showing a tax loss every year.  Over the 10 years with no inflation you lose $1,516 but take a tax loss of $62.5k and pay the loan down by $34.5k.  At this point you could re-finance and either:
  • Take your $34,462.84 back out of the property in cash, or
  • Knock your payment down so you'd start making money.  

Sensitivity analysis, what if inflation is 10% instead of 7.2%?

Now at the 10-year mark you've made almost $128k in cash and only paid tax on about half of it due to depreciation.  The value of your property has also increased to over $900k and your $228k remaining mortgage is just 25% of that so you can borrow an additional $453k if you want to.  

 

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