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Topic: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #224 on: July 19, 2024, 10:04:21 AM »
Reported inflation NOW is in pretty good shape also.  It's the price jump in the past that still hurts.  And that won't change.

Nearly all the reported economic metrics look solid, UE, current inflation, GDP growth, not so great is median real HH income growth.  Folks have forgotten what inflation was liked in the early Reagan years.
Income is kind of the thing though isn't it?


[color=var(--YLNNHc)]The unemployment rate rose from 7% in 1980 to 11% in 1982, then declined to 5% in 1988. The inflation rate declined from 10% in 1980 to 4% in 1988. Some economists have stated that Reagan's policies were an important part of bringing about the third longest peacetime economic expansion in U.S. history.


Reaganomics - Wikipedia


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Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #225 on: July 19, 2024, 10:17:00 AM »
I view real median HH income as the most important metric out there.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #226 on: July 20, 2024, 12:48:13 AM »
And credit usage.  And savings levels.  And credit performance.  And business investment.    And consumer spending.  And consumer confidence. 
I could go on. 

the basic trends are not good. 
Yep.
Those of us that follow these metrics regularly are worried. 

That said, there is an old joke that most economists have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions so . . .

FearlessF

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #227 on: July 20, 2024, 07:58:03 AM »
or 24 of the last 2
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #228 on: July 20, 2024, 08:05:00 AM »
It seems apparent a lot of Americans think the economy is in bad shape.  No doubt their personal situation influences this more than reported data, and their political leanings will also influence this.  I was curious how folks here view it, most think "OK shape with worrisome signs".

The various signs folks have noted are quite worrisome.  

I have in my past become so worried about the "signs" that I sold off my rather modest stock portfolio, and then watched as the stocks went higher for years.  I was rather lucky in 1998, I had been saving $100 a month for some years as a downpayment on a new van.  It reached the point I could buy a new nicer van, and did.  The old one had reached 155,000 miles.  The market of course turned south about two years later, but I rather liked the new van, it got the same gas mileage, was larger and more powerful by a good measure.

FearlessF

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #229 on: July 20, 2024, 08:31:59 AM »
It seems apparent a lot of Americans think the economy is in bad shape.  No doubt their personal situation influences this more than reported data, and their political leanings will also influence this.  I was curious how folks here view it, most think "OK shape with worrisome signs".

This is constant - doom & gloom - woe is me
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #230 on: August 02, 2024, 10:09:18 AM »
Starting to fray a bit?  More than a bit?

MarqHusker

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #231 on: August 02, 2024, 10:11:38 AM »
Dr. Doom announced he's launching his first ETF.    He must really be bearish now.


Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #232 on: August 02, 2024, 10:16:57 AM »
I make considerable effort to avoid being bearish or bullish, and stick to "The Plan".  It's not easy.

Any time I think about timing a sale, I remind myself it's an amateurish mistake, usually.

MrNubbz

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #233 on: August 02, 2024, 10:20:40 AM »
Negative waves Moriarity,always with the negative waves
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #234 on: August 02, 2024, 10:22:04 AM »

SuperMario

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #235 on: August 02, 2024, 09:04:18 PM »
And credit usage.  And savings levels.  And credit performance.  And business investment.    And consumer spending.  And consumer confidence. 
I could go on. 

the basic trends are not good. 
Couldn’t agree with this more. I don’t think most people grasp the reality of the underlying giant red flags of the mess to come. Jobs reports consistently revised downward the following months, with bulk of the jobs coming in healthcare and government jobs. insurance costs skyrocketing because of the lag at properly assessing inflation, avg auto loan up over $700, property taxes escalating in so many places. 

what has kept everything afloat has been the ease to access credit. Many consumers staying afloat by accessing more and more credit with creditors approving everything under the sun. As the reality starts to hit, companies will tighten budgets, unemployment will rise and credit markets will tighten. Call it gloom and doom. I call it looking at the data and seeing the inevitable on its way.

utee94

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Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #237 on: August 03, 2024, 07:15:59 AM »
Obviously, IF the economy noticeably drops off, the election outcome will be impacted (duh!).

I can't tell if this is the start of a noticeable drop or just a blip.  But a lot of signs are signaling he former.

 

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