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Topic: How do you know what you think you know?

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #224 on: March 13, 2025, 07:37:21 AM »


But I drank plenty of pineapple juice so she was still cool with it.

We hear you loud and clear. :111:




Honestbuckeye

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #225 on: March 16, 2025, 09:54:30 AM »
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

MikeDeTiger

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #226 on: March 19, 2025, 09:38:22 AM »
Can y'all move your discussions of water management to the politics thread, or the weather climate & environment thread, or literally anywhere else?

I think Mike had intended this to be a bit of a philosophical thread, and while it might drift here or there, sniping at each other about damn dams is not really the idea here.

I missed a bunch of pages last week.  Is it worth my time to catch up or not?  

utee94

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #227 on: March 19, 2025, 10:24:42 AM »
With this crew jibber jabbering?  Definitely not worth your time. :)


MikeDeTiger

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #228 on: March 20, 2025, 05:01:18 PM »
I've finally got my quick list of principles I think are reasonable written down in a vaguely organized fashion.  The formatting doesn't translate here so I'll have to type it all out again, sans some of the nice formatting.  Oh well.  This was a good exercise that forced me to articulate some things that were happening on auto-pilot without much direct consideration, and to re-examine some other things that needed to be factored in.  But overall, this is more or less how I've been operating for a long time.  You'll see in spots this leans into the political/news sphere because that's what I was thinking of when I started the thread, but I think this can be adapted to other areas. 

Next, I'm going to try to deliberately refer back to this in the future and periodically rate myself on my own standards.  I think overall, I probably give myself a C+ or B- thus far, as far as committing myself to something "I know."  Not bad, could be better. 

_________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ __


  • Is your opinion falsifiable?  Do you know what that principle means, and if so, what's your standard of falsifiability?  What would you need to see, or what facts taken in context would make you say "What I thought is wrong?"  Is there a valid and reliable way to test your belief?  (Validity and reliability are two of the most important metrics in statistical analysis, and I think there's carry-over in this area.)  If so, have you done it? 
  • Do multiple sources report a fact?  (obvious, no explanation needed)
  • Do you at least spot-check primary sources?  If so, did the news report's claim hold up?  For history stuff, this could be original letters, ancient "primary" history accounts, or other primary documents.  For legal stories it could be reviewing court cases or executive orders.  (I'm lucky....my years as a landman taught me to read lawyer-speak pretty well without being a lawyer).  If a particular source has proven, over time and over multiple spot-checks, to have accurately relayed what they claim from other, primary sources, you're justified in loosening up on your skepticism of that source.  i.e., there are people whose word I take a lot more readily now, without "doing my own research," more than I once would've, because they hardly ever miss, that I can tell. 
  • Have you sought to develop critical thinking skills?  Are you good at philosophy, logical thinking, and spotting logical fallacies?  Do you interrogate a story as it's being told to you?  (skepticism)

That was more or less for ingesting facts.  Moving on to listening to opinions(podcasts, reports, opinion articles, news shows, etc.)

  • Do you read or listen to sources that have opposing viewpoints to your own?
  • When considering others' opinions, does it have good explanatory scope and good explanatory power? (two common tools for historians.)  Explanatory scope = explains all the facts, explanatory power = explains the facts well
  • Does the speaker or a person being interviewed have a vested interest?  Are they pushing a book?  Are they suddenly making the rounds on all the news shows and podcasts and starting to act like a celebrity?  Are they finding ways to stay in the spotlight?  Or are they staying low-key and not trying to make a career out of being a public opinion person?  (this is in no way conclusive, bear in mind, it's just one tool in the toolbox.  If a person sounds credible but then I start seeing them everywhere and seeming to profit off their hot takes, I get suspicious.  If a person is interviewed who comes off like they're just pleading to get their story out there, I'm inclined to view it more favorably.)
  • Eye-witnesses are good evidence, but know what makes a good eye-witness.  (Sorry, the further explanation for that is way longer than I'm ever going to type out.)  i.e., I frequently listen to a podcast where the guy often discusses the Russia-Ukraine war.  His academic training is Russo-European history, he's traveled extensively all around the globe and particularly that area, and has spent an enormous amount of time in Ukraine dealing with their government when he adopted his now-daughter from the Ukrainian orphanage system, and written books about all of it.  So for example, when he comments on the Russia-Ukraine war, I'm reasonably justified in weighting what he says heavier than some desk anchor who's never been anywhere and may know nothing for themselves first-hand.  It's not a free pass, I'm just saying, I am likely to be less skeptical (until enough time has passed and he shows to be reliable). 
  • Does a person have people on their show with different viewpoints?  It's hard to trust someone who only ever has people on who agree with them.  It's better, and more telling, when someone has on opposition and will spar with them and both of them let it all out there.  BUT: bear in mind controlled opposition is always a possibility. 
  • Does a person ever say anything good about politicians they don't like?  Or anything bad about politicians they do like?  Chances are very slim that a person thinking for themself has no agreements or disagreements with someone else--that would be strange and statistically unlikely.  If that happens, I'm inclined to regard them as shills or an antagonist for the sake of antagonizing. 
  • Do they ever admit they were wrong when something they've said has been widely and publicly shown to be false?  You can't imagine how many people I've weeded out with this one.  If they can't or won't do this, they're not honestly trying to inform you.  They're hacks. 
  • Do they act like experts in all matters?  Do they ever say "I don't know a lot about that?"  Chances are uber-slim a person is really an expert in everything they talk about. 


_________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ _


Anyway.....like I say, B+/C- there, I think.  Room for improvement. 

I wish I could say that finding info and good opinions to consider is easy and could just point to one person or web page and say "Them.  They're good."  In reality I find I have to gather info from a lot of different places.  A lot of times I don't have the time and I should probably tread more carefully when that's the case.  I do have some go-to people these days, but it's not for everything....it's more like "this person has been reliable with X, this other newspaper has been reliable with Y..." etc. 

The end.  Close 'er down. 




« Last Edit: March 20, 2025, 05:13:29 PM by MikeDeTiger »

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #229 on: March 20, 2025, 05:40:21 PM »
Excellent work BTW. I'd highlight two things:


Do multiple sources report a fact?  (obvious, no explanation needed)

This is something you have to be VERY careful with. If one source reports a fact and then multiple sources report what that source reported--which is AMAZINGLY common in the modern internet age--then you still truly only have one source.

Quote
1. Does a person have people on their show with different viewpoints?  It's hard to trust someone who only ever has people on who agree with them.  It's better, and more telling, when someone has on opposition and will spar with them and both of them let it all out there.  BUT: bear in mind controlled opposition is always a possibility.
2. Does a person ever say anything good about politicians they don't like?  Or anything bad about politicians they do like?  Chances are very slim that a person thinking for themself has no agreements or disagreements with someone else--that would be strange and statistically unlikely.  If that happens, I'm inclined to regard them as shills or an antagonist for the sake of antagonizing.

I think this is important. I really enjoy Real Time with Bill Maher. For two reasons... First, I basically know he's biased, but he's going to own that bias. So I trust he says what he truly thinks. Second, he's more interested in debate than proselytizing, so he'll bring on ANYONE even if they disagree with him. And of course he'll poke at them, but he won't shout over them like someone like Hannity... (Full disclosure; I haven't listened to Hannity in ages.)

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #230 on: March 20, 2025, 11:13:36 PM »
Excellent work BTW. I'd highlight two things:

This is something you have to be VERY careful with. If one source reports a fact and then multiple sources report what that source reported--which is AMAZINGLY common in the modern internet age--then you still truly only have one source.

This used to be very carefully avoided, but being first became more valued/important that making sure you're right.  Sigh.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #231 on: March 31, 2025, 01:02:28 PM »
Good one from Existential Comics on utilitarianism. 

And a good reason why utilitarianism is an incomplete philosophy, that potentially makes it incompatible with human nature. 

If the sadist's enjoyment of hurting someone exceeds the victim's displeasure at being hurt, does that make hurting them justifiable? I would certainly [and strongly!] argue no. 


MikeDeTiger

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #232 on: March 31, 2025, 01:59:58 PM »
There's that, and then there's the chaos theory aspect of it.  Utilitarianism says, in a nutshell, we should do whatever leads to the best outcome in the long run.  Assume for a moment we could agree on "best outcome"--which as you and this cartoon point out is not a given--it still has a major flaw.  Philosophically and empirically, there's a ton of evidence that we are not in a good position to know what will lead to the best possible outcome over time.  We can make some reasonable predictions on a few things in the short term.  But we even get a lot of that wrong.  Extend the time period, we're basically worthless as prognosticators in the face of the butterfly effect. 

Utilitarianism has faced some withering critiques for those very reasons, and imo, hasn't really withstood them well.  Not a great basis for a system of ethics.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #233 on: March 31, 2025, 04:41:36 PM »
BTW this is long-winded and doesn't really address your point, Mike. So I'm going to post it, because there's some good stuff in it, but understand that it's disjointed...

---------------------

Yes, and it brings in the question of whether we do what's best today, or whether we're also trying to satisfy the long run. And if we're trying to satisfy the long run, how much weight do we place future generations in relation to satisfying our own today. 

I've mentioned a book several times, The Ministry for the Future, by Kim Stanley Robinson. He's a hard sci-fi writer probably most well known for his Red Mars series, which is superb. This book is more of a near-future look at a world where climate change is increasingly spiraling out of control. No "spoilers", but essentially a governing body (within the UN IIRC?) called the Ministry for the Future is established which exists to advocate for the future 7 generations of the world. And as such, it obviously puts them at odds with short-term thinking institutions--which is what most governments, businesses, and people, are primarily concerned with. The book gets into some left-wing politics here or there, so if you're turned off by that, don't read it. But if you can stomach it and get through, it's a very interesting, very well-written, and believable book. 

I bring it up because as I said previously, in the absence of a belief in a supreme being who will tell us what ethics we should follow, we're stuck figuring it out on our own. 

For me, that's why I said an ethical system for humanity has to be consistent with two things:


  • Works in accordance with human nature.
  • Promotes a stable and prosperous society. 

This means that it will need to encourage the good things in human nature, while discouraging the bad. But that we need to be thinking of the future of the society. 

For example, I'm a proponent of free market capitalism. Is it perfect? No. Does it have warts? Yes. But overall it has been the driving force that has lifted the world out of subsistence-level poverty, created new technologies that have extended human lives, made us more healthy and nourished, given us endless ability to explore our interests rather than toiling on a farm from dawn 'til dusk, etc. 


The reason it does all that? Because it harnesses the best of human greed and competition, a key aspect of human nature. Free market capitalism is an endless innovation engine where everyone is trying to get one up on everyone else. That sounds rapacious and horrific, but economic advance is driven by productivity--getting more out for equal or less put in. That productivity growth is exactly WHY we're not toiling in fields from dawn 'til dusk, and why we can feed 8B people on this planet. And if we want to take care of future generations, we have to keep that engine going. Because just as our ancestors in 1850, 175 years ago, could not even conceive of the life that we have available today, we can't probably conceive of how much better things will be in 2200 if we keep innovating. 

There are some, however, who look at life and say "you know what, it's good enough--we need to distribute it more fairly". And to an extent we do; one of the other parts of human nature is our empathy, our generosity, and our desire not to see others suffer. Free market capitalism doesn't have an answer for those who can't produce, other than "starve, or hope for charity". And as someone who benefits greatly from my productive ability, but with a son with severe autism who won't ever be able to produce, it puts this into stark relief. 

So when I look at systems, socialism doesn't work because it neuters that greed and competition, and therefore neuters the engine of innovation. This has been proven basically everywhere it's been tried. The purest form of libertarianism (anarcho-capitalism) IMHO likewise doesn't work because it neglects the human desire not to watch those around us suffer terribly, and neglecting those who cannot flourish in such a society is inhumane. Thankfully [I think], pure anarcho-capitalism hasn't been tried in the modern world. 

So when we get into systems of government, we're invariably trying to find the right balance between the two. The "get as much good as you can, and help those who can't do it as much as you can, but without either killing the golden goose or shunting innovation so much that we're leaving our grandkids a much poorer world than they could have" dividing line is unknown, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. 

Healthcare can be a good example. I found the "World Index of Healthcare Innovation", and the US had a score of 4th overall in developed nations. However, we're dragged down by cost and sustainability. But where we excel is the Science & Technology section. We're 1st there with a score of 75.14, and there's only one other nation over 50 (Denmark at 52.63). So we lead the pack by a VERY wide margin:


Quote
[color=var(--blue)]Science & Technology[/color]

The U.S. also ranked first in Science & Technology. Indeed, the margin between the U.S. and second-place Denmark was by far the highest recorded in any dimension of the Index, driving America’s overall ranking. The U.S. ranked first in the number of new drugs & medical devices gaining regulatory approval; first by a wide margin in Nobel prizes in chemistry or medicine per capita; and second in scientific impact as measured by citations. The U.S. also ranked fourth in R&D expenditures per capita. This leadership in scientific impact directly translates into treatments that are developed by nearby pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, especially around hubs such as Boston and the San Francisco Bay Area.

For all the warts of our healthcare system (and there are many, which I'm not going to get into), we're the nation driving more of the health care advances that our kids and grandkids will thank us for in the future.

We don't have a fully free market health care system, and we don't have a fully universal system. The political push is to make our system more universal, but we can point out that the innovation engine is probably partially funded by our NON universal system where the profit motive is stronger. The question of finding that balance line is important. If the balance line of universal healthcare materially restricts the innovation engine, we're hurting our kids. If the balance line of free market healthcare is causing unnecessary suffering of the people living today, then we're hurting them today. 


MrNubbz

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #234 on: March 31, 2025, 06:08:06 PM »
Good one from Existential Comics on utilitarianism.

And a good reason why utilitarianism is an incomplete philosophy, that potentially makes it incompatible with human nature.

If the sadist's enjoyment of hurting someone exceeds the victim's displeasure at being hurt, does that make hurting them justifiable? I would certainly [and strongly!] argue no.
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Gigem

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #235 on: March 31, 2025, 06:14:46 PM »
Good post BRAD. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #236 on: March 31, 2025, 07:15:27 PM »
There's that, and then there's the chaos theory aspect of it.  Utilitarianism says, in a nutshell, we should do whatever leads to the best outcome in the long run.  Assume for a moment we could agree on "best outcome"--which as you and this cartoon point out is not a given--it still has a major flaw.  Philosophically and empirically, there's a ton of evidence that we are not in a good position to know what will lead to the best possible outcome over time.  We can make some reasonable predictions on a few things in the short term.  But we even get a lot of that wrong.  Extend the time period, we're basically worthless as prognosticators in the face of the butterfly effect. 

Utilitarianism has faced some withering critiques for those very reasons, and imo, hasn't really withstood them well.  Not a great basis for a system of ethics. 
BTW IMHO per the bold, there's a ton of evidence that we are not in a good position to know what will lead to the best outcome NOW. 

Again, this potentially gets back to the question of free markets vs central planning. The simplest way to say it is that the free market is also a truth-discovering machine. Supply and demand sets prices, prices and costs determine profits and loss, and they they ultimately lead to a situation of water finding its level over time. I think this is often strawmanned into the "efficient market hypothesis", which is further strawmanned into the idea that markets are never wrong. Which is completely, well, wrong. The difference is that markets being wrong is usually a sort of self-correcting problem unless acted upon by outside forces allowing them to STAY wrong. 

I work with many brilliant people. We're in an industry where there are only three producers of our product in the entire world. It's an industry dominated by several VERY large and very stable companies as our customers. Companies with market caps 100x our own. We work hard on demand planning 6, 8, 10 quarters out, trying to triangulate the best possible information we can to ensure that we have the right supply for market demand. And then COVID happened, which threw EVERYTHING out of whack. It led to a year+ of over-buying, followed by a 6-quarter market trough of massive demand loss that people in the company say they haven't seen for 30+ years. Lots of losses, lots of layoffs, and it was a generally depressing time. Thankfully we're past it now--and I kept my job. 

But what I can say about that? Not a goddamned person exists in Washington DC that could/would have handled it better. And likely would have done worse, because they would have been all about alleviating temporary pain rather than doing the hard stuff that's necessary to adjust to market reality. 

It's why I say that law is an emergent phenomenon. Politicians typically don't "make" law. They lick their finger, hold their finger up in the air, see which way the wind is blowing, and then codify that while taking credit for it. 

You talk about utilitarianism being a problem because "we" are not in a position to be able to decide what's actually utilitarian, and I agree with you. Central planning doesn't work for the economy, and it doesn't work for utilitarianism, because no politician can actually know enough information to direct either with confidence--not that it impairs their confidence. But politics is, if nothing else, a reflection of the zeitgeist. Not a member of Congress exists who knows more about data storage than I do, and I'm but a mid-level cog in my machine. And there are a million people like me in a million other industries who know more about what they do than anyone in Congress. So, at best they can play in the margins and follow the wind where it blows, because they sure as shit can't change the weather. 

MikeDeTiger

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Re: How do you know what you think you know?
« Reply #237 on: April 01, 2025, 10:08:15 AM »
Well, that's where we get lobbyists, I suppose.  At least one type of them.  People who know more about something than anyone in Congress hire other people to go convince Congress to do what they think ought to be done. 

Which, really, is just the beginning stages of central planning.  I guess the thing to do is for Congress to let the smart guys duke it out in a free market and not for the smart guys to try to make rules based on their expertise. 

 

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