By upsets, I mean when a 14 point dog ends up winning. Of course, we're talking about emotional 20 year olds, that is a factor.
Another thing I see is the battle of inches, one team ends up making 9 yards in a series and punts, the opponent then manages 10 and keeps the drive alive, it's statistically almost a random event. Speaking of randomness, turnovers of course, and special teams, a FG sneaks inside the upright, or doinks off it. Then there are missed assignments, of course better teams would do it less often, but they happen, and can randomly pile up against you. A pass gets dropped, another is barely tipped, a receiver keeps a foot in bounds, or doesn't, a referee calls a phantom holding penalty ...
A 14 point dog in CFB wins about 12% of the time, that's of course one time in eight. This is statistically like a coin flip coming up heads 3 times in a row, really not that surprising put that way.
Imagine your team is elite, and will be a 14 point favorite in all 12 games, you are likely to lose at least one.
