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Topic: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

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Cincydawg

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2022, 10:50:22 AM »
How often have we had blow outs in the NC game?  Not very, a couple I recall (including the BCS).  Teams are pretty evenly matched usually, and OSU would have been competitive with LSU that year, though LSU would be favored.  Burreaux was just that good.

But one chance in three is pretty decent odds, and that is about a 7 point dog, and a turnover or two, not to mention those close passes that are tipped, or get home, or are dropped, etc.

Most teams will need to make the CFP several times to win an NC, it could be the first time.  Or not.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2022, 11:25:31 AM »
How often have we had blow outs in the NC game?  Not very, a couple I recall (including the BCS).  Teams are pretty evenly matched usually, and OSU would have been competitive with LSU that year, though LSU would be favored.  Burreaux was just that good.

But one chance in three is pretty decent odds, and that is about a 7 point dog, and a turnover or two, not to mention those close passes that are tipped, or get home, or are dropped, etc.

Most teams will need to make the CFP several times to win an NC, it could be the first time.  Or not. 
Blowout is obviously a bit subjective.  I tend to think of it as more than two scores so 17+ points but I make exceptions if a late score or two moves it into or out of that range.  This year's NC was 15 points but I think it is important to note that it was a one score game and the team behind had the ball VERY late in the game.  The Pick-6 made it look a bit more lopsided but it was a competitive game.  

My subjective view of blowouts in the NC in the CFP and BCS eras:
  • 2020:  Bama by 28 over tOSU.  
  • 2019:  LSU by 17 over Clemson.  This one is right on the edge as to whether or not I'd consider it a blowout.  LSU scored the last 14 points to break open a three point game but it wasn't like they scored in the last minute.  LSU made it a 10 point game in the third quarter and a 17 point game early in the fourth quarter and Clemson was unable to cut into that lead.  
  • 2018:  Clemson by 28 over Bama.  Clemson scored the last 30 points but none were in the fourth quarter. 
  • 2014:  Ohio State by 22 over Oregon.  I do NOT think this one should count even though it technically meets my criteria (17+ points) because Ohio State scored a late TD to get there.  
  • 2012:  Bama by 28 over ND.  This was probably the biggest blowout as ND was down 35-0 before they got on the board.  
  • 2011:  Bama by 21 over LSU.  
  • 2007:  LSU over tOSU by 14.  I think this one should count even though it technically does not meet my criteria (17+ points) because Ohio State scored a late TD to get within 14.  OTOH, tOSU's late TD to get back to 14 simply offset a slightly less late TD by LSU that make it a 21 point game so maybe this should not count.  I don't know.  
  • 2006:  Florida over tOSU by 27.  
  • 2004:  USC over OU by 36.  This might even be a worse blowout than the 2012 NCG.  Oklahoma scored the last 9 points after trailing 55-10.  
  • 2001:  Miami, FL over UNL by 23.  IIRC, this wasn't close.  
  • 1999:  FSU over VaTech by 17.  I do NOT think this one should count even though it technically meets my criteria (17+) because FSU actually trailed upon entering the fourth quarter and scored the last 18 points to achieve the 17 point win.  The game was within one score until VERY late.  

In total that is 11 in 24 years which is almost half but that depends on what you think about the italicized ones that are borderline.  


Cincydawg

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2022, 11:50:42 AM »
I'm more literal about blow outs I think, meaning a score like 48-14 is a blowout to me, a score you'd see playing a G5 program.  But it's subjective and you offered a nice summary.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2022, 12:04:16 PM »
I'm more literal about blow outs I think, meaning a score like 48-14 is a blowout to me, a score you'd see playing a G5 program.  But it's subjective and you offered a nice summary.
Honestly the definition to me is more about time than final score.  What I mean is the answer to the question of whether or not a game was a blowout should be answered by considering the following question:
  • At what point was the game "over" for all practical purposes?  

The example I always use is two Ohio State games that I attended at Ohio Stadium.  

In the mid-90's (IIRC) tOSU beat Iowa by 21 points, 56-35.  That sounds reasonably close but the game was anything but.  Ohio State led 56-0 at one point and Iowa just scored five TD's against Ohio State's backups, waterboys, mascots, and cheerleaders.  My point is that the game was never in doubt even though Ohio State won by "only" three TD's.  

The other game was against Penn State around a decade later and the Buckeyes won the game by 22 points.  Now obviously 22>21 so, in theory, the PSU win was "bigger" than the Iowa win but that couldn't be further from the truth.  This particular game was a very close and hard fought game almost until the end.  Late in the game the Buckeyes had a one-score, eight-point lead at 14-6.  The difference in the game was simply goal-line offense/defense.  Each team had scored twice but the Buckeyes had punched in two TD's and held PSU to two FG's resulting in the 14-6 lead.  Late in the game Penn State had the ball and was driving but then threw a pick-6 which made it 21-6.  On their very next possession (it might have been the next play) the Nittany Lions threw ANOTHER pick-6 which led to the final score of 28-6.  

That is why I think time might be the better way to assess this.  The Iowa game was over before halftime.  The Penn State game wasn't over until the first pick-6 deep in the fourth quarter.  

Even 48-14 *MIGHT* not truly be a blowout if the winning team scored three late TD's to break open a reasonably competitive 27-14 game.  


Cincydawg

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2022, 12:08:39 PM »
I agree entirely, a blow out is a game that became noncompetitive a bit after halftime, or before.  And it COULD be a 17 point final differential.

Trickier to enumerate that.


FearlessF

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2022, 01:48:56 PM »
28 points or more

Osborne would start pulling starters with a 4 TD lead in the 2nd half
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2022, 02:05:15 PM »
28 points or more

Osborne would start pulling starters with a 4 TD lead in the 2nd half
What @Cincydawg and I are saying is that it isn't just the final margin.  

If Nebraska is up 56-28 late in the third quarter, pulls their starters, gives up two late TD's by backups, and wins 56-42 that is still a blowout because the game was not in doubt once they got to 56-28.  Conversely, if Nebraska is in a dogfight where the third quarter ends with the Huskers holding a 35-28 lead but then they score three fourth quarter TD's to win 56-28, that game is NOT a blowout because it was in doubt into the fourth quarter.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2022, 03:00:03 PM »
I agree with both, I'd consider 28 points to be a blowout in MOST cases, but late scores that mean little impact that a lot.


Cincydawg

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2022, 03:10:50 PM »
The UM-UGA game felt like a blow out though it finished 34-11.  It was 34-3 late.  I also think there is a difference between 34-3 and 70-39, same MOV, but in the latter case the loser was putting up some numbers and COULD have recovered with a few breaks later in the game.

But yeah, I'd go with 28 point MOV barring special circumstances.

TyphonInc

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #37 on: January 14, 2022, 03:13:22 PM »
Blowout is obviously a bit subjective.  I tend to think of it as more than two scores so 17+ points but I make exceptions if a late score or two moves it into or out of that range.  This year's NC was 15 points but I think it is important to note that it was a one score game and the team behind had the ball VERY late in the game.  The Pick-6 made it look a bit more lopsided but it was a competitive game. 

My subjective view of blowouts in the NC in the CFP and BCS eras:


  • 2012:  Bama by 28 over ND.  This was probably the biggest blowout as ND was down 35-0 before they got on the board. 
  • 2004:  USC over OU by 36.  This might even be a worse blowout than the 2012 NCG.  Oklahoma scored the last 9 points after trailing 55-10. 


In total that is 11 in 24 years which is almost half but that depends on what you think about the italicized ones that are borderline. 

USC over OU was the worse blow out. 

ND moved the ball twice on 'bama (turn over on downs and pick on the 3.) ND stopped 'bama 3 times including one turn over, before the game was so bad I went to bed.

OU scored on the opening possession and then turned a huge turd for the rest of the 1st half. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #38 on: January 14, 2022, 05:40:39 PM »
Yup, I figure usually at least 3 of the teams in the CFP are very very good, and capable of beating you half the time, the other one would need some breaks, maybe could beat you 25% of the time, so the odds are against you no matter how good you are unless you are unusually great.
Florida's been facing this for as long as FSU was good and the SECCG began in '92.  FSU-SECCG-Bowl.  Super fun stuff, good luck winning all 3.  Spurrier never did.  Meyer did once, but none of the FSU teams he faced were like the ones Spurrier faced.  Tough sledding.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #39 on: January 14, 2022, 05:44:00 PM »

(Whispers quietly ... I think OSU could've taken LSU. It would've had to be really feeling it, but Clemson was in that game at points, despite Lawrence being pretty out of sync. Granted, it would've been a shootout for the ages)
Ehhh......OSU got up 16-0 on that Clemson team, so it had everything going for it and all the momentum and still lost AND LSU put up 630 yards on that same team with no turnovers.

I'm doubtful.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #40 on: January 14, 2022, 06:52:45 PM »
Ehhh......OSU got up 16-0 on that Clemson team, so it had everything going for it and all the momentum and still lost AND LSU put up 630 yards on that same team with no turnovers.

I'm doubtful.
I mean...LSU was really good. But OSU was better on the fancystats for a reason - they had a great pass rush and a great back end. No team would have matched up better with LSU that season than OSU. Clemson needed like a million big breaks just to barely squeak by. Certainly, would have been a much better championship game.

FearlessF

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Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #41 on: January 14, 2022, 08:45:27 PM »
What @Cincydawg and I are saying is that it isn't just the final margin. 

If Nebraska is up 56-28 late in the third quarter, pulls their starters, gives up two late TD's by backups, and wins 56-42 that is still a blowout because the game was not in doubt once they got to 56-28.  Conversely, if Nebraska is in a dogfight where the third quarter ends with the Huskers holding a 35-28 lead but then they score three fourth quarter TD's to win 56-28, that game is NOT a blowout because it was in doubt into the fourth quarter. 
agreed
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