How often have we had blow outs in the NC game? Not very, a couple I recall (including the BCS). Teams are pretty evenly matched usually, and OSU would have been competitive with LSU that year, though LSU would be favored. Burreaux was just that good.
But one chance in three is pretty decent odds, and that is about a 7 point dog, and a turnover or two, not to mention those close passes that are tipped, or get home, or are dropped, etc.
Most teams will need to make the CFP several times to win an NC, it could be the first time. Or not.