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Topic: FIRE HARBAUGH

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bayareabadger

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #126 on: November 03, 2021, 01:42:51 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 03, 2021, 01:27:07 PM
Yes. Someone who already wants their coach fired:

"He's never won against a coach of Irish heritage in the state New Jersey when it's raining but above 65 degrees, in a night game! Coach John Q. Random, a division rival, is 5-0 in those games! Fire his worthless ass!"

Yep.

The logic of firing might be pretty sound. He can’t field teams better than the best rival. He’s not holding serve vs the next rival. He isn’t winning bowls, which impacts mood. And he doesn’t have that team as a clear No. 2 in the conference of division.

If you feel that ices him, even after 10-2, fine. They can play roulette and see if someone else can get them to the last one.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #127 on: November 03, 2021, 01:45:27 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 01, 2021, 05:39:35 PM
Georgia did it and it worked out pretty OK for them.

This line of thinking is a fallacy. You fire the guy if he's clearly not up to par and you go through the interview process and find a coach.
Georgia is in VASTLY better recruiting territory than Michigan.  

My view is that the relative strength of your local/regional recruiting base basically sets a baseline for coaches.  If you are Florida/Miami/Georgia/Texas/Ohio State you have LOTS of high-end recruits in your area and any competent coach should be able to average at least something like .700.  Thus, if you are one of those schools and your guy is consistently going .700 then you don't have all that much risk in firing him.  

Conversely, Michigan, Tennessee, and Nebraska simply do NOT enjoy that luxury.  Michigan has a decent number of recruits but WAY less than Ohio and the Wolverines have in-state competition from the Spartans.  Thus, I do not think that Michigan/Tennessee/Nebraska can just hire any random competent coach and go .700.  That makes firing a .700 coach MUCH more risky.  Harbaugh is 56-23 at Michigan (.709).  I'm not sure how much better they could do, but I am ABSOLUTELY certain that they could do a LOT worse.  


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medinabuckeye1

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #128 on: November 03, 2021, 01:47:21 PM »
The thing that all this talk about losses to ranked teams, terrible records against ranked teams on the road, etc ignores is Harbaugh's greatest strength.  His Michigan teams have EXTREMELY few significant upsets.  Excluding the odd pandemic year of 2020, here are all 19 of Harbuagh's losses at Michigan by final AP ranking of opponent:
  • #3, 2015 tOSU
  • #3, 2019 tOSU
  • #4, 2015 tOSU
  • #5, 2017 tOSU
  • #5, 2018 ND
  • #5 (currently), 2021 MSU
  • #6, 2015 MSU
  • #6, 2016 tOSU
  • #7, 2017 UW
  • #7, 2018 UF
  • #8, 2016 FSU
  • #8, 2017 PSU
  • #8, 2019 Bama
  • #9, 2019 PSU
  • #11, 2019 UW
  • #15, 2017 MSU
  • #17, 2015 Utah
  • RV, 2016 Iowa
  • RV, 2017 USCe

Fourteen of his 19 losses are to teams that finished in the top-10, 17 of the 19 are to teams that finished ranked, and even the two that did NOT finish ranked were close enough that they received votes.  

It is easy to say that this is irrelevant because everybody should beat all of the bad teams that they play but literally nobody does.  Ask Pete Carroll.  Closer to home, ask Urban Meyer.  Within Harbaugh's tenure Urban Meyer had losses to a 2018 Purdue team that finished sub .500 and a 2017 Iowa team that finished just 8-5.  Technically 2017 Iowa was "RV" because they had two votes in the final poll but my point stands.  Harbaugh's accomplishment of basically never losing to a bad team is a legitimate accomplishment that should not be overlooked.  

Yes, Harbaugh is 0-5 against Ohio State and I fully understand your frustration with that.  As someone who was in Jr High, HS, and college during the Cooper era, BELIEVE me, I understand.  That said, Cooper lost to some bad and mediocre Michigan teams.  The five Ohio State teams that Harbaugh has been defeated by finished #3, #3, #4, #5, and #6 in the final rankings.  NOBODY has a very good record against teams that finished in the top-6.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #129 on: November 03, 2021, 01:50:16 PM »
It's all about expectations.  I'm sure Tennessee fans expected a major boost when they got rid of Fulmer.  What really happened was a disaster.  Maybe Heupel is the guy for them, maybe not.  Their fans expect to be "relevant" in the SEC, which means winning the division at least one year in three if not more.

The last won the East in 2007 and the conference in 97-98.  But their teams of late have been mediocre to pretty bad.
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ELA

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #130 on: November 03, 2021, 01:52:45 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 03, 2021, 12:37:57 PM
similar to Solich....

then 2003 goes 9-3 with a 10th win in the bowl game
huge improvement, but fired before the bowl game
I don't remember them playing in any bowl game that year
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #131 on: November 03, 2021, 01:56:20 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 10:11:46 AM
This highlights my issue, you fire your guy and then "discover" you are in desparation mode and have to catch someone near the bottom of any list.
Frankly I don't think it makes THAT big of a difference.  There are plenty of examples of first choices that didn't work out and plan-b and plan-c guys that did.  I think hiring a coach is almost a crapshoot.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #132 on: November 03, 2021, 01:57:51 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 03, 2021, 01:47:21 PM

It is easy to say that this is irrelevant because everybody should beat all of the bad teams that they play but literally nobody does.  Ask Pete Carroll.  Closer to home, ask Urban Meyer.  Within Harbaugh's tenure Urban Meyer had losses to a 2018 Purdue team that finished sub .500 and a 2017 Iowa team that finished just 8-5.  Technically 2017 Iowa was "RV" because they had two votes in the final poll but my point stands.  Harbaugh's accomplishment of basically never losing to a bad team is a legitimate accomplishment that should not be overlooked.

URBZ & Sneaky Pete won NC's and CCG's,that's the rub if I'm an M fan.MSU was ripe for the picking the last two years - RIPE.Their national draw now is fading,Jim's star is fading - but no skin off of my keister - extend his contract
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Cincydawg

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #133 on: November 03, 2021, 02:02:04 PM »
Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC.  If that is the expectation and goal, most coaches are not going to get there, and even those who do get fired in a few years often as not.  If hiring a new guy is close to random, fine, but why expect the FNG to do better than JH?  Or you keep cycling through until a good one shows up?

By then the program has ceded relevancy.
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MrNubbz

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #134 on: November 03, 2021, 02:02:15 PM »
Quote from: ELA on November 03, 2021, 01:52:45 PM
I don't remember them playing in any bowl game that year
Of course you don't they beat MSU in the Alamo Bowl 17-3 that season,had to look it up though.You were yanking our chain weren't you?
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MrNubbz

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #135 on: November 03, 2021, 02:04:17 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 02:02:04 PM
Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC.
“insanity is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results.” - who ever said it
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #136 on: November 03, 2021, 02:04:35 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 03, 2021, 01:56:20 PM
Frankly I don't think it makes THAT big of a difference.  There are plenty of examples of first choices that didn't work out and plan-b and plan-c guys that did.  I think hiring a coach is almost a crapshoot. 
Like Mel Tucker after Luke Fickell said NO. 
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FearlessF

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #137 on: November 03, 2021, 02:05:19 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 03, 2021, 02:02:15 PM
Of course you don't they beat MSU in the Alamo Bowl 17-3 that season,had to look it up though
ELA thanks you for the refresher

I wasn't going to post a thing
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #138 on: November 03, 2021, 02:12:34 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2021, 02:02:04 PM
Most coaching changes don't work out for programs intent on winning the NC.  If that is the expectation and goal, most coaches are not going to get there, and even those who do get fired in a few years often as not.  If hiring a new guy is close to random, fine, but why expect the FNG to do better than JH?  Or you keep cycling through until a good one shows up?

By then the program has ceded relevancy.


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medinabuckeye1

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Re: FIRE HARBAUGH
« Reply #139 on: November 03, 2021, 03:20:17 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 02, 2021, 09:22:32 AM
see Tennessee and Texas.. in great recruiting areas  toss in USC
Since when is Tennessee a great recruiting area?  

My theory on what went wrong for Tennessee is that too many of the nearby schools got good which watered down their recruiting which eroded their talent from elite to average and then they went down the spiral of bad coaching hires (some of which may not actually have been very bad given the situation) and here we are.  

The recruits that Tennessee brought in to win their last NC (1998) were recruited during an era when UNC, USCe, Clemson, Georgia, the Mississippi schools, LSU and even Bama (to an extent) were not as good as they are now.  Tennessee simply can't be elite on in-state talent.  They need a significant number of non-local recruits to keep up but it has gotten MUCH harder to get those non-local recruits because programs in the states surrounding Tennessee have improved dramatically in the last ~25 years.  
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