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Topic: Federal Debt and Deficit

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #84 on: July 26, 2024, 12:07:56 PM »
Imagine SS had been set up to be privately operated, say Prudential ran the program, and took in FICA taxes and invested in Treasuries.  Would that be any different?
It depends:  In your hypothetical was Prudential REQUIRED to buy non-tradable Treasuries?  If so then no, no different.  If not, then yes, very different.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #85 on: July 26, 2024, 12:18:57 PM »
Yes, if Prudential could only invest in specific Treasuries.

Some insurance plans have to invest in US Treasuries, if not 100%, nearly so.  Pensions of course often have a percentage requirement.

I bought a US Treasury recently.  Will I get my money back?  It's a 3 monther.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #86 on: July 26, 2024, 12:31:25 PM »
Imagine SS had been set up to be privately operated, say Prudential ran the program, and took in FICA taxes and invested in Treasuries.  Would that be any different?
No. 

You're letting the way they defined this color your thinking, CD. Take a step back for a second. 

The money used to generate the SSTF was already spent. Right now all it holds are promises to pay it back. Not dollar bills. Not gold bars. Just promises.

There are only two ways to pay back those promises. Higher taxes on American taxpayers, or higher national debt. 

Yes, it will be paid back. The United States Government honors its promises. But on whose back will those payments come from? Mine, as a current taxpayer, is whose back, and my kids, who are future taxpayers, with the additional debt it's creating. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #87 on: July 26, 2024, 12:34:25 PM »
I still don't get it, but maybe it doesn't matter at all.

I figure if I chose to invest my retirement entirely in Treasuries, I'd get it back when they mature, in cash, or credit to my account on the computer.  That's really all I care about.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #88 on: July 26, 2024, 12:37:14 PM »
I still don't get it, but maybe it doesn't matter at all.

I figure if I chose to invest my retirement entirely in Treasuries, I'd get it back when they mature, in cash, or credit to my account on the computer.  That's really all I care about.
Why invest in Treasuries at all? Why don't you just lend it to your wife to cover her spending, and she can pay you back on whatever date the loans come do? 

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #89 on: July 26, 2024, 12:44:55 PM »
I like to get some interest.  I don't see any difference for me if I invest in T bills or CDs or corporates, aside some a small security angle.  Some annuity or insurance plan that invests my premiums similarly would be the same, to me.

My wife does fine on her own.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #90 on: July 26, 2024, 12:57:47 PM »
I like to get some interest.  I don't see any difference for me if I invest in T bills or CDs or corporates, aside some a small security angle.  Some annuity or insurance plan that invests my premiums similarly would be the same, to me.

My wife does fine on her own.
Oh, I'm not saying you'd loan it to her for free, of course. You deserve some interest.

And I'm sure she does fine on her own, and I'm sure she has excellent credit. That's why she'd be an excellent borrower! But maybe she wants a little extra walking-around money, ya know. 

I mean, the fact that you have shared finances and that you're a single economic unit living under one roof shouldn't make lending to your wife in exchange for interest any different than if you invested in Treasuries, or CD's, or corporate bonds, right?

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #91 on: July 26, 2024, 01:02:20 PM »
I guess I view the SSTF and the Federal government as separate entities, not at all like me and my wife.

Anyway, I'm slow to understand these things.  Thanks for trying.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #92 on: July 26, 2024, 01:10:54 PM »
I guess I view the SSTF and the Federal government as separate entities, not at all like me and my wife.

Anyway, I'm slow to understand these things.  Thanks for trying.
Exactly. And that's the point. You wouldn't lend your wife money just so she can spend it today, with the promise that she'll pay it back in a few years, because you know you're one shared economic unit and you should make spending decisions together, because you'll eventually have to pay it back together. 

If you invest in Treasuries, you are relying on someone outside your household to pay it back when it comes due. That might be me (higher taxes as an income earner). That might be some insurance company who buys the replacement T-Bill when yours comes due. But ultimately, you're relying on "someone else" to pay it back. 

In this case, the federal government loaned the money to the federal government and now the federal government has to pay back the federal government. And the only way to do that is with new taxes or new debt. Which materially negatively affect Americans, who are the people who fund the federal government. We're all in the same household on this one. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #93 on: July 26, 2024, 03:01:33 PM »
Exactly. And that's the point. You wouldn't lend your wife money just so she can spend it today, with the promise that she'll pay it back in a few years, because you know you're one shared economic unit and you should make spending decisions together, because you'll eventually have to pay it back together.

If you invest in Treasuries, you are relying on someone outside your household to pay it back when it comes due. That might be me (higher taxes as an income earner). That might be some insurance company who buys the replacement T-Bill when yours comes due. But ultimately, you're relying on "someone else" to pay it back.

In this case, the federal government loaned the money to the federal government and now the federal government has to pay back the federal government. And the only way to do that is with new taxes or new debt. Which materially negatively affect Americans, who are the people who fund the federal government. We're all in the same household on this one.
This is the key distinction and, as an accountant, I should have thought of this explanation earlier.  

@Cincydawg when you get annual reports from the companies you own stock in the Financial Statements (FS) are usually "Consolidated Financial Statements" because most of the large companies are conglomerations of multiple subsidiaries.  

We accountants do combining worksheets but it is NOT as simple as adding up the lines.  Some things are, but inter-subsidiary transactions are eliminated from the consolidated FS because when viewing the whole thing, there is no transaction there.  

Example:
Back when GE owned a whole bunch of stuff lets say that GE Finance had $120 Million in cash and GE Aerospace had $10 Million in cash.  When GE's accountants created the Consolidated Financial Statements for GE, they would list that as $130 Million in cash because the two just get added together.  Now lets say that GE Aerospace needs money so GE Finance loans $100 Million to GE Aerospace.  Now:
GE Finance
  • $20 Million in Cash
  • $100 Million in Loan Receivable Asset (the $100 Million that they loaned to GE Aerospace)
GE Aerospace
  • $110 Million in Cash
  • $100 Million in Loan Payable Liability (the $100 Million that they borrowed by GE Finance)
GE's Consolidated Financial Statements would show:
  • $130 Million in Cash
  • NOTHING for the loan because when you view GE as a complete unit (including GE Finance and GE Aerospace) there is NO loan receivable nor payable.  

Much simpler example:
If Brad's wife pays $150/mo for electric but the electric bill is only $100/mo, at the end of the year she has overpaid by $600 so Brad owes $600 to Brad's wife.  For simplicity lets say that the two of them have no other assets and no other liabilities.  If I did individual FS for the two of them:
  • Brad's wife has a $600 asset of "Brad Bonds" and a net worth of $600.  
  • Brad has a $600 liability of Brad Bonds and a net worth of -$600.  
Then if I did a combined FS for Brad AND his wife it would be a blank sheet of paper.  They have NOTHING and owe NOTHING.  

It is the same thing here.  The Federal Government is ONE entity made up of a whole bunch of components but when you create a consolidated FS, it is only ONE entity.  The T-bills held by the various trust funds are neither assets nor liabilities.  They get eliminated because they are inter-subsidiary.  

I hope that makes more sense.  


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #94 on: July 26, 2024, 03:09:18 PM »
Anyway, I'm slow to understand these things.  Thanks for trying.
Hey, with enough work I got you to understand the EV battery charging speed thing :57:

Pretty sure @medinabuckeye1 and I can get you through this one. 

And if not, hopefully at least some OTHER folks here have not had their eyes glaze over and we get through to them, which is still a positive. 

utee94

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #95 on: July 26, 2024, 03:16:18 PM »
Ah yes, the long and torturous EV charging at speed discussion. I remember it well. :)

bayareabadger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #96 on: July 26, 2024, 03:53:15 PM »
Ah yes, the long and torturous EV charging at speed discussion. I remember it well. :)
I didn't read this, but a few months back a buddy got a cheap EV for a trip and was not informed of all that rigamarole. It was ... a problem. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #97 on: July 26, 2024, 03:59:37 PM »
What if when SS was started, they by law could only invest in AAA corporate bonds?  Would that change anything?

 

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