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Topic: Establishing an OOC Rivalry

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FearlessF

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #224 on: June 30, 2020, 10:17:00 AM »
that's always the motivation

basketball is now more than 64
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Cincydawg

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #225 on: June 30, 2020, 10:23:39 AM »
There must then be countering reasons we have not gone to a larger playoff scheme.

FearlessF

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #226 on: June 30, 2020, 11:20:02 AM »
players and coaching staffs don't want more games, they influence ADs, which talk to the conference commish

it's the only reason the NFL doesn't play 24 games in a season
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #227 on: June 30, 2020, 04:24:47 PM »
Records of teams favored by 10 or more (00-16):

That is a not insignificant difference.  I get once in seven tries on the road and once in a little better than eight at home.  

Put another way:
  • In 56 games your team plays at home as a 10+ point favorite they will lose roughly 7 so they'll go 49-7.  
  • In 56 games your team plays on the road as a 10+ point favorite they will lose roughly 8 so they'll go 48-8.  


FearlessF

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #228 on: June 30, 2020, 04:31:41 PM »
well, that sucks
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #229 on: June 30, 2020, 04:48:23 PM »
So, in an 8 team playoff where the 1-8 contest is played in 1's home stadium, we might expect an upset one time in eight games played.  If that #8 team often is the leading G5 team, one might expect them to have say a 1 in 6 chance of winning the second round at a "neutral" site, and perhaps the same shot in the NC game.  That is pretty low odds of course, which suggests one reality that they shouldn't play in the playoff in the first place.

Or you might accept those odds, a one chance in 8 x 6 x 6, which would happen eventually of course.

That is 0.35%, one shat in 300.  Do you think a team with one chance in 300 merits that chance?
I think 1-in-8 is extremely generous for the top G5 Champ against the #1 seed.  

For a comparison, look at 2019.  The top G5 Champ was Memphis.  Memphis played Cincinnati twice, both at home and won by 10 and five points.  Backing out HFA, the Tigers were slightly better than the Bearcats.  Neither the Bearcats nor the Tigers played #1 LSU but the Bearcats did play #2 tOSU.  The Bearcats lost 42-0.  They got outgained 508-273 and had 13 first downs compared to tOSU's 31.  It wasn't even that close.  Cincinnati's drives (sequentially):
  • 3 and out for 2 yards when tied 0-0.  
  • 4 plays, 15 yards when down 7-0.  
  • 12 plays, 66 yards, missed FG when down 7-0.  Drive started at the UC 20 and included a 4th and 1 conversion at the 49.  The FG from the 14 was blocked.  
  • 3 and out for 2 yards when down 14-0.  
  • 4 plays, 19 yards when down 21-0.  
  • 4 plays, 19 yards when down 28-0.  
  • 6 plays, 20 yards when down 28-0.  
  • 3 and out for 2 yards when down 28-0.  
  • 5 plays for 53 yards then an INT when down 35-0.  
  • 3 and out for 0 yards when down 42-0.  
  • 11 plays for 79 yards then a fumble when down 42-0.  

Note that almost half of UC's yardage (132 of 273 yards) came starting late in the 3rd quarter trailing by five TD's (then later six) and against tOSU's backups.  

My point is that even the best G5 teams are the kinds of opponents that the top P5 teams schedule for an "off week".  Cincinnati was roughly comparable to Memphis and they looked like a JV squad when they went up against Ohio State.  I'd be shocked if the G5 Champ won one out of eight.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #230 on: June 30, 2020, 04:50:10 PM »
If the motivation is simply more revenue, then why not 16 or 32 or 64?
I keep thinking that eventually the powers that be will figure out that while adding to the playoff pool obviously increases playoff revenue it decreases regular season revenue because it converts regular season CFB games which most fans view as "can't miss, must see" events into something more like regular season CBB games which are more of a "if I am not too busy" viewing item.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #231 on: June 30, 2020, 04:50:22 PM »
A G5 playoff team might well be a 15 point dog on average, we just took ten plus as the dividing line.  One of 8 is based on ten plus of course.

Then the other question surfaces, why even include them?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #232 on: June 30, 2020, 05:08:54 PM »
Back to @CWSooner 's original question:

For me, as a fan of Ohio State, I have zero interest in a 10-year OOC series for two reasons:

First, I really like playing a variety of OOC opponents.  If we locked in with one for a decade we'd lose that variety.  I'd rather play five "helmet" teams twice each than one 10 times.  

Second, there really aren't any good "natural" OOC rivalries for Ohio State.  Some people suggest Cincy but they are nowhere near on Ohio State's level.  If I were tOSU's AD I'd be willing to sign them so something like a 3-and-1 where we play three times in Columbus and once in Cincinnati.  Even there, I'm not really willing to give them a home game, I'd demand that the Cincy game be played at Paul Brown and that tOSU get half of the tickets.  

Most of the border-state teams are in the B1G (Michigan, PSU).  There are three potential logical annual OOC rivals for Ohio State:

  • Notre Dame:  They are in a border state and they are a fellow "helmet" so it would make some sense.  That said, I wouldn't want to support ND's continued quasi non-conference stance by playing them annually and even if I didn't care about that, as I referenced above, I'd rather see the Buckeyes travel to Norman, Austin, Tuscaloosa, Athens, and LA in a ten year period than see them travel to South Bend five times.  
  • West Virginia:  They are P5 (B12 now oddly).  However, they are nowhere near the "Helmet" that Ohio State is.  
  • Kentucky:  They are P5 (SEC).  However, like WVU, they are nowhere near the "Helmet" that Ohio State is.  


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #233 on: June 30, 2020, 05:11:18 PM »
A G5 playoff team might well be a 15 point dog on average, we just took ten plus as the dividing line.  One of 8 is based on ten plus of course.

Then the other question surfaces, why even include them?
To continue living the lie that they have a chance.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #234 on: June 30, 2020, 05:13:57 PM »
what, G5 teams don't play defense?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #235 on: June 30, 2020, 05:17:43 PM »
Putting a G5 team between a big-boy team and the national championship trophy is a poor choice.  It's not the same as the Cinderella G5 champ playing a disappointed Auburn or Baylor in a consolation-prize bowl.  It will mimic the 42-0 OSU-Cinci game in September.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #236 on: June 30, 2020, 05:41:58 PM »
A G5 playoff team might well be a 15 point dog on average, we just took ten plus as the dividing line.  One of 8 is based on ten plus of course.

Then the other question surfaces, why even include them?
I already know @OrangeAfroMan 's answer and to an extent I agree with him.  

His answer will be that any playoff should necessarily consist of the Best _ teams where the _ is replaced by the number of teams.  I get it and I don't totally disagree.  

That said, there are also people who will argue for the "most deserving" as opposed to "best" and there is a strong case for that as well.  One argument that I've heard a lot is that if you aren't the best team in your conference then you can't be the best team in the country.  Same there, I get that argument but I also get that with unbalanced league schedules and HFA the "best" team doesn't always win the conference.  

Going to eight teams with auto-bids for the five P5 Champs and the highest ranked G5 Champ is a hybrid/compromise between "best" and "most deserving".  There are two at-large spots so if Bama loses to Auburn on a weird kick-six they still have a chance (same if Ohio State loses to PSU or MSU).  I would give the HFA to the top-4 league champions so that there was a not insignificant advantage to winning your league.  

More specifically, why include the top G5 Champ when, as I just argued above, they are probably cannon-fodder for the #1 seed.  The major reason is political/legal.  The G5 teams consist of a LOT of schools in a LOT of states and Congress threatened the BCS due to non-inclusion of the G5 teams.  There was potential for a monopoly lawsuit or Congressional intervention.  Throwing the G5 a bone by letting their best team get pasted by the #1 seed every year is better than losing in Court or having Congress after you.  

Another reason is simply to reward the #1 seed.  Hey, if you go undefeated you probably get what is basically a bye in the first round of the CFP.  

I'm not a huge fan of the expanded playoff nor of expanding it again to eight teams but I really like the set-up that I have proposed for the inevitable expansion to eight teams.  For quick review, my proposal is:
  • An eight team CFP.  
  • The 5 P5 Champs and the highest ranked G5 Champ get auto-bids leaving two at-large slots.  
  • The top-4 league champions get the top-4 seeds and host the first round.  
  • I'm undecided on a rule to either avoid rematches or to avoid two teams from the same conference (or both) in the first round*.  

Things I like about it:
  • It preserves as much value in the regular season as possible because there is a HUMONGOUS difference between squeaking in at #7 and being the #1 seed.  Ie, the #7 seed has to travel to one of the best teams in the country while #1 hosts a glorified scrimmage.  
  • Even beyond 1 v 7, there is a significant difference between almost each step.  #1 gets the glorified scrimmage.  #2 usually gets the weakest P5 Champ.  #3 gets either the second weakest P5 Champ or a weaker at-large.  #4 is usually going to get an at-large team that most people think is better than they are.  
  • Winning your conference matters.  Last year's B1GCG is a great example.  In retrospect Ohio State was playing only for jersey color in the 2/3 game.  Had Ohio State lost to Wisconsin they would still have played Clemson in the first round.  Ie, the B1GCG was for basically nothing.  In this proposal Ohio State would have been playing for a relatively easy home game (against Baylor based on 2019 results) instead of a MUCH tougher road game (at Oklahoma based on 2019 results).  Plus, Wisconsin would have had something to play for as well.  With a loss the Badgers would have obviously been out as a 10-3 non-Champion but with a win they'd have had an auto-bid as an 11-2 B1G Champion and they'd have hosted a first round game.  Based on 2019 results the fourth host spot would have been between 11-2 Wisconsin and 11-2 Oregon.  
  • Lots and LOTS of games in the final weeks matter.  All five P5 CG's obviously matter because even in a situation like the B1G, SEC, or ACC in 2019 where tOSU/LSU/Clemson are in either way, the other team is still playing for a spot and tOSU/LSU/Clemson are playing for a first-round home game.  Then, a slew of G5 CG's are potentially relevant.  In 2019 it would have been pretty much just the AAC game with the winner getting the #8 slot but in other years there would be situations where two, three, four, or all five G5 CG's are potentially relevant.  Ie, the 5th highest ranked G5 CG participant needs to win and have all four underdogs win the other G5 CG's.  It isn't much of a chance but it is a chance.  



*I'm curious what others think about a no-rematch or no two teams from the same conference rule for first round games.  If you look at 2019, had Wisconsin upset Ohio State in the B1GCG they would have entered the CFP as the fourth highest ranked P5 Champion behind LSU, Clemson, and Oklahoma.  Thus, they would have hosted the #5 seed which would likely have been the same Ohio State team that they already lost to in Columbus and beat in Indianapolis.  It seems ridiculous to me to have tOSU/UW play a third time.  OTOH, it is somewhat unfair to #3 Oklahoma to say "well, you are supposed to host the #6 seed Oregon Ducks where you'll be a favorite but instead you get to host the Buckeyes and be an underdog.  

Your thoughts?
  • Would you prohibit first-round rematches?   
  • Would you prohibit first-round games between two teams from the same league (even if they didn't play in the Regular Season)?  
  • Would you prohibit first-round rematches between teams from the same conference?


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Establishing an OOC Rivalry
« Reply #237 on: June 30, 2020, 07:03:04 PM »
I would give the HFA to the top-4 league champions so that there was a not insignificant advantage to winning your league. 
Here's where I disagree... I agree with basically all the rest of that.

I say the committee should seed the teams based on strength, and that there is no advantage to winning your league. 

Winning your conference gets you a seat at the table. It shouldn't automatically grant you a preferential seat. 

 

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