Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-0, 2-2) at Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1)
8:00 Friday - Champaign, IL - FS1
Was wondering why there were only five Big Ten games this week, then had to remember this ongoing reality...Friday night Big Ten games. I won't be watching, but I guess someone will. For Husker fans who want a change last week was probably their ideal result. Nebraska looked less than stellar again...but it was still enough to beat Rutgers. That was the easiest game remaining on Nebraska's schedule, and to get to 6 wins, this one is probably also a must win. Same goes for the Illini, although I think even the most optimistic Illinois fans know a bowl isn't happening this year. They could take some solace in seeing that as bad as their offense looked two Friday nights ago, South Florida's defense might simply be that good, as Temple did far, far less against it. And yes, I can look you in the face and be ok comparing Illinois and Temple right now. Tanner Lee put forth another lousy performance on Saturday, and by this point it has to be clear he isn't the guy. He's already at 9 interceptions on the season. Rutgers' Kyle Bolin has 6. No other Big Ten quarterback has more than 3. Lee has thrown three pick sixes...in the last two games alone. Let's not let the Illini off the hook here though, they rank dead last in the Big Ten in both total offense and total defense. It's tough to tell where this Nebraska team is right now. They could go the way of Michigan State last year, and let a disappointing year snowball into a disaster year, or they could suck it up and make it a 6-6 middling bowl type of year. There seem to be a lot of upset in these off-Saturday night games. And the Huskers seem primed to be the victim of one of those right now.
ILLINOIS 31, NEBRASKA 24
Northwestern Wildcats (2-1) at #10 Wisconsin Badgers (3-0)
NOON - Madison, WI - ABC
Forgive Badger fans for not looking past this one. The Wildcats have given them fits. Since 2000 Northwestern is 6-5 against Wisconsin. Wisconsin has a winning record during that time against every other Big Ten West foe. The difference is, Northwestern pulls out squeakers, but when Wisconsin wins, they win big. The margin of victory for Northwestern in their 6 wins was 3, 9, 3, 2, 6, 6 (4.8 ppg). The margin of victory for Wisconsin in their 5 wins was 12, 32, 47, 29 and 14 (26.8 ppg). Northwestern may have done what Northwestern has done recently, start slow, and then right the ship. After a sluggish win over a garbage Nevada team, and then getting blown out by Duke, Northwestern rallied to blitz an admittedly terrible Bowling Green team, but one probably not much different than the Nevada team they nearly lost to in Week 1. The composite computer rankings slot Nevada at #122 in the FBS and Bowling Green at #128. Clayton Thorson had statistically his best career game, at 23-30 for 370 yards and 2 TDs. That gave him an adjusted QBR (which accounts for the opponent strength I believe) of 96.2. The previous week he was a 25.0. But more importantly, they got the offensive line on track and got Justin Jackson going. After averaging 63.5 ypg on 3.4 ypc over the first two games, Jackson exploded for 121 yards on nearly 7 ypc in only about a half of action. But it will take more than one game against arguably the worst team in the FBS to fully sway me. Remember last year when Wisconsin was winning, but their run game was uncharacteristically sluggish, and we figured that was an unsustainable formula? That certainly hasn't been the problem to start 2017, with Bucky rolling to a league best 275.3 ypg running it 49 times per game. That's good for #12 in the nation, but when you look at the 11 in front of them it looks even better. You have 4 triple option teams (Georgia Tech, Navy, Army, and Air Force), 4 teams with highly mobile quarterbacks accounting for a lot of yardage(Arizona, Notre Dame, UNLV and South Florida and a Miami team that has only played two games, so their FCS game still weighs heavily. Really, only Alabama and Tulsa are doing what Wisconsin does better than Wisconsin. Northwestern has stopped that attack before, but this Northwestern team hasn't yet proven they can do much against anything other than the dregs of the FBS.
WISCONSIN 34, NORTHWESTERN 17
Maryland Terrapins (2-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0)
NOON - Minneapolis, MN - FS1
A season that started by appearing that D.J. Durkin had the Terps rebuild ahead of schedule has devolved into a a massive quarterback issue. It appeared that only Max Bortenschlager remained available among Maryland's scholarship quarterbacks, but it seems that perhaps North Carolina transfer Caleb Henderson will play this week after all. Nobody is really sure what Maryland has in him, but I think fans saw just about all they wanted to see from Bortenschlager, after an awful showing last Saturday. Whoever gets snaps is going to need much more from a line that couldn't block Central Florida a week ago, only picking up 42 rushing yards on 1.1 ypc. The dynamic Ty Johnson was held totally in check on only 25 yards on 11 carries, getting more than half of them on one 13 yard run. Minnesota had seemingly found their groove a couple weeks ago, and now just need to hope the bye week was beneficial and not a hiccup to their progress. P.J. Fleck seems to slowly be working more of a passing game into the attack, and in that regard these teams are very similar, and we might have a 2 and a half hour game. Both right around 20 pass attempts per game, these two teams pass the ball the least in the conference, but when they do, they pick their spots, and do it effectively. Even down to their third quarterback, Maryland leads the Big Ten in completion percentage, Minnesota is 6th; and they are 2nd and 3rd in yards per attempt, both just under 9.0. The difference is that Minnesota also plays defense, and so far Maryland has not. Maryland ranks in the bottom four of the Big Ten in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense and passing defense. Their pass rush is solid, but they aren't creating turnovers, and there are too many gaps in the back seven when they don't get there. I don't envision the Gophers giving them many chances to get at Conor Rhoda, and the Gophers grind out another big time of possession edge.
MINNESOTA 34, MARYLAND 23
Iowa Hawkeyes (0-1, 3-1) at Michigan State Spartans (2-1)
4:00 - East Lansing, MI - FOX
Both Iowa and Michigan State had a chance to make a statement last weekend, and both came away with results that didn't really answer the question one way or the other. Iowa really had no business even being in the game with Penn State, being outgained 579-273, getting doubled up in time of possession, losing first downs 29-11. But they won the turnover battle, got a missed field goal, a lot of Penn State penalties...and it nearly added up to a win...except it didn't. So who is Iowa? A team that was dominated on the scoresheet? A team that nearly beat Penn State anyway? Or a team that is kind of mediocre and nearly pulled an upset in front of a crazy home crowd? Same for Michigan State. They showed flashes of being a much improved team, and dominated Notre Dame on the scoresheet. But they also showed the same mental fragility we saw last year. Too many incredibly inexcusable turnovers and penalties. This is not 2013-15 Michigan State, but we saw less talented early Dantonio teams be successful by winning in the margins where this team is failing. They were good enough to get away with it against Bowling Green or Western Michigan, but not against Notre Dame, and not against Iowa. Michigan State's early schedule may have looked friendly with a 4 game home stand to open, but the two big games are against teams they seemingly like to play away from East Lansing. Notre Dame has won 2 in a row, and 5 of the last 7 in East Lansing, but Michigan State had won 7 of the last 10 in South Bend. Likewise, Iowa has won two in a row in Spartan Stadium, but Michigan State has won the last 3 road/neutral meetings. The last three games in East Lansing have come down to the final possession, and then obviously the 2015 Big Ten Championship Game ending. Michigan State maybe doesn't have to win the turnover battle, but they can't lose it decisively again, and they can't afford the type they had last week, where all 3 were almost directly tied to 21 points in swing. Three games in though, it's enough to think it's part of this team's identity, and not just one of those flukes that regresses to the mean.
IOWA 24, MICHIGAN STATE 21
#11 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 3-1) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-1, 1-3)
7:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN
If you think Urban Meyer may take it easy on his former assistant, you need only look to last year's 58-0 thumping, or the way he took Tom Hermann to task for making excuses about the roster he inherited at Texas to know Urban is going to do Urban. Not to mention, there is still plenty of things Ohio State needs to get ironed out before the schedule gets more difficult, that the chance to run things in game situations is not something that is a luxury that can be thrown away. While the Scarlet Knights have a long way to go offensively, I think they should give OHio State their best test on defense, perhaps of the year. They don't have the athletes that Oklahoma has, but they've been sneaky good this year, namely at causing turnovers. Only Penn State has more interceptions on the year than Rutgers, and last week they took one back against Nebraska. They are also doing a good job keeping Kyle Bolin upright. After giving up over 3 sacks a game in Big Ten play last year, they've given up only 3 sacks total through 4 games this year. Minnesota is the only other Big Ten team giving up less than one per game. The supposed best pass rush in the country has certainly not fully lived up to that billing thus far in Columbus. Yes, playing an Army team that never throws will screw with your number a bit, and they certainly haven't been bad, but they have yet to be so dominant that they can negate some of the gaps in the back end. That is perhaps what this defense needs to show more than anything, is the ability to create havoc with just 3 and 4 man rushes, so that some of their coverage issues go unnoticed. Granted, I don't think Kyle Bolin is going to be the guy to pick apart whatever coverage issues Ohio State has. Rutgers' 5.4 pypa is by far worst in the league, and Bolin's 29.9 QBR is third worst among qualified Power 5 quarterbacks. Rutgers might have a moment or two early in front of a jazzed up home night crowd, but really it'll probably be overrun with Ohio State fans, and it won't remain a game for long.
OHIO STATE 40, RUTGERS 14
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
Indiana Hoosiers (0-1, 2-1) at #4 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 4-0)
3:30 - State College, PA - BTN
Penn State survived their first legitimate test of the year, and the most promising thing for Indiana last weekend was not their easy win over Georgia Southern, but Virginia going on the road and handling Boise State, making that Hoosier over Hoos win look a lot more impressive. True freshman Morgan Ellison, who was a late flip away from the MAC looked like an absolute steal in running wild last week. But a struggling Georgia Southern triple option rushing attack was finally able to get its legs against Indiana, which is troubling with the best running back in the country looming. Yes, there is the fluky factor, but Georgia Southern hadn't been running on anyone else, last in the Sun Belt in rushing, and they picked up 242 yards on 54 carries against Indiana. They rank dead last in the Big Ten in run defense, and that is a recipe for disaster. Perhaps because Michigan's defense is getting all the headlines, or because when you think Penn State, you think Barkley, but the Nittany Lion defense is suddenly back too. Franklin won it with offense last year, but the Penn State defense might be the most improved unit in the conference. They aren't going to completely smother you like Michigan will, but they'll bend, not break, and force a bunch of turnovers. They've forced a conference leading 10. When you take arguably the most talented team in the conference then add the intangible of best turnover differential, that's the type of thing championships are made from. Indiana's games have been all about ball security. They are 13th in the Big Ten in turnovers created with just 3, but 4th in turnovers, with just 4 themselves. They are one of only 4 schools in the FBS with no interceptions created, and the only team in the conference with fewer than 2. For them to have any chance in this one, that will have to change. But with the best running back in the nation going up against the worst run defense in the Big Ten, I see no reason for McSorley to take any unnecessary risks through the air.
PENN STATE 37, INDIANA 21
