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Topic: ELA September 3 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** August 30, 2022, 01:35:41 PM »

Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers

(Thu) 8:00 - West Lafayette, IN - FOX

Get the hype train, pun intended, rolling around Purdue football. Purdue finished off a season where they beat a pair of top 3 teams, beat Tennessee in a bowl game, reached the top 25 for the first time in 14 years, and won the Bucket game by 37, the biggest win since 2008. Purdue received 14 votes in the preseason AP Poll, their highest preseason ranking since 2005, and the first time they received any votes at all since getting 1 in 2007. There is no coasting into the schedule either, opening up against one of the helmet schools, at home, on national television, in prime time. The Nittany Lions have had Purdue's number, 15-3-1 all time, including 9 in a row, dating back to 2004. Only 2 of those games were decided by less than two scores, and the last time they met put up 45 2nd half points, 62 total, a record for a visiting opponent in Ross Ade. The interesting matchup be Purdue's strength, which lost some key pieces, but returned a lot too, against Penn State's, which did the same. Lost in the Penn State mediocre season a year ago was just how good the defense was. It got defensive coordinator Brent Pry the Virginia Tech head coaching job. They held 11 opponents to 24 or fewer points, and still went 7-4 in those games. Aidan O'Connell might be the best NFL QB prospect in the conference, sorry C.J. Stroud. Per PFF O'Connell led the nation in elite throws, meaning passes that only elite arms are even capable of making. But he lost David Bell, easily his favorite target. Milton Wright is a nice player but is he a #1? Hopefully the show tight end Payne Durham put on in the Music City Bowl is a stepping stone to a big 2022. Durham had 17 receptions for 203 yards and 3 TDs over the first 3 games; and then just 18 receptions for 179 yards and 1 TD over the rest of the regular season, before a 5 catch, 85 yard, 2 TD bowl game. I think what was probably the conference's best defense a year ago should still be stout, too stout to get beaten by a one dimensional attack. The Boilermakers were #5 in the nation in passing yardage, and #127 in rushing.

PENN STATE 24, PURDUE 23

NM State Aggies (0-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers

(Thu) 9:00 - Minneapolis, MN - BTN

I considered not even doing a write up here, because while this is technically an FBS team, they probably shouldn't be. It seemed like maybe Doug Martin was getting some traction, getting the Aggies to an Arizona Bowl win in 2017, the programs first postseason appearance since the 1960 Sun Bowl. Unfortunately, New Mexico State went 8-30 in the four years since, with 5 wins being over FCS opponents. You might think this game might not get completely out of hand because of the return of former Minnesota coach Jerry Kill, who retired in the middle of the 2015 season due to health issues. However, Kill was vocally against the firing of his former assistant, Tracy Claeys, saying he would never return to campus, and taking the New Mexico State job without realizing the schools were going to play each other. As recently as this week he said he didn't know if he'd shake P.J. Fleck's hand. The Aggies played a pair of Power 5 schools last year, losing to Alabama and Kentucky by a combined score of 115-19, and I don't think Fleck has any reason not to try and pile on. The Aggies lost 46% of their production from a year ago, 15th worst in the FBS, and Kill brought in 45 new players, while not retaining a single member of the former staff. So the learning curve could be quite steep. While an 11 point loss last week to Nevada may look ok, Nevada also has a new coach, and actually returned even less than New Mexico State, and the Aggies turned the ball over 5 times. Granted New Mexico State rotated two quarterbacks, and Diego Paiva was responsible for 4 of those turnovers. So it would seem true freshman Gavin Frankes might be the guy going forward. That seems like a lot to throw a kid out in a road game against a Power 5 school on the road in just his second game of his college career. But while the late New Mexico State offer was his lone FBS offer, he's a smart kid. He held offers from multiple Ivy League schools, and was committed to Princeton, before flipping to the Aggies.

MINNESOTA 51, NM STATE 0

Western Michigan Broncos at #15 Michigan State Spartans

(Fri) 7:00 - East Lansing, MI - ESPN

While Western Michigan has probably been the most consistent of the directional Michigan MAC schools over recent history, it's Central Michigan who has upset the Spartans a few times, in 1991, 1992, and 2009. Michigan State has won 12 straight against the Broncos, dating back to 1919. Maybe it's something that happens once a pandemic. The Spartans probably dodged a bullet in playing Western Michigan in 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2019, but not in 2016, when the Broncos beat a pair of Big Ten teams (Northwestern and Illinois), and went to the Cotton Bowl, where they lost by just 8 to a third (Wisconsin), while Michigan State went 3-9, their worst season since 1982. This Western Michigan team is not the 2016 team, and isn't even really the 2021 team, which beat Pitt in September. The 2021 Broncos could give this Michigan State secondary some major issues. Unfortunately, both quarterback Kaleb Eleby and star receiver Skyy Moore left early for the NFL Draft, gutting the Bronco passing game. Redshirt freshman Jack Salopek won an open battle to be the new starting quarterback, holding off former Alabama walk on Stone Hollenbach. But it's not just Moore, with his 95 receptions and 1,300 yards gone from the weapons. #2 WR Jaylen Hall transferred to Western Kentucky, starting TE Anthony Torres transferred to Toledo, WR Bryce Nunnelly, who also served as the return specialist, and #2 TE Brett Borske, both graduated. Corey Crooms is the only returning WR/TE who caught a pass last year. They do return both parts of their two headed backfield, Sean Tyler and MSU transfer La'Darius Jefferson, who combined for 1,986 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. The problem is you beat the Spartans through the air, Purdue and Ohio State showed that. The run defense was #11 in the nation in rushing ypg allowed, and #12 in ypc. And it's not like those two performed well against Power 5 defenses, even ones who weren't as good as Michigan State's against the run, averaging just 3.5 ypc against Michigan and Pitt last year.

MICHIGAN STATE 42, WESTERN MICHIGAN 17

Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-0)

(Fri) 8:00 - Bloomington, IN - FS1

Indiana's 2021 season may have been the starkest reminder of just how fake the 2020 season was. The 2020 Hoosiers went 6-1 in the regular season, beat Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin, finished ranked #12 in the AP Poll, their highest final ranking since 1967, and the first time they finished ranked at all since 1988. Tom Allen was named National Coach of the Year, and reupped to stay in Indiana. Nothing but good vibes rolling into 2021, where the Hoosiers found themselves ranked to start the year, for the first time since 1969. They absolutely crapped the bed in the opener, losing 34-6 to Iowa, and it was downhill from there. Indiana had their worst season in a decade, winning just one game against an FBS opponent (Western Kentucky), and only scoring more than 15 points once (a 38-35 loss to Maryland) in Big Ten play. The Big Ten site archives only go back to 2003, but Indiana's 10.4 ppg in Big Ten play last year is the worst in that time period, by a full ppg. Allen recognized the need to build up his roster, and the Hoosiers should start at least 5 Power 5 transfers, including three on the defensive line. They are going to have their hands full against an Illinois offense that already got a week to work out some kinks. Chase Brown went off, so those new bodies along the line are going to be much needed. Don't forget how good the Illinois offense looked to start last year though, before falling off a cliff after Game 2. The only worse unit in the conference was the Hoosiers. The Illini secondary looked much improved, so it's important for Indiana's two transfer running backs to contribute. Shaun Shivers comes in from Auburn after being passed over, but he averaged 5.3 ypc as a freshman back in 2018, on 70 carries. His 22 receptions last year show what a versatile weapon he could be. These are probably not the two worst teams in the Big Ten, but in terms of aesthetics, this might be the ugliest Big Ten game of the season, even if the offenses aren't quite as bad as they were last year.

ILLINOIS 22, INDIANA 17

Colorado State Rams at #8 Michigan Wolverines

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

If Harbaugh was going to roll with this split start quarterback plan, he should have at least started with J.J. McCarthy, to give us something to watch in the opener. Granted Michigan could probably put just about anyone out there and be fine. The Rams field a serviceable defense, particularly in the back seven, but struggled against the run, and graduated 3 starters on the line. That should have Michigan's big uglies licking their lips. The nation's winner of the Joe Moore Award last season, as the best offensive line in the country lost only one senior...and replaced him with a Rimington Award finalist. That group might actually somehow be better this year. Not only is their turnover on the line for Colorado State, but new defensive coordinator Freddie Banks is trying to switch to a 4-2-5 system. Banks was the DC for FCS Montana State for just one year, but in that year, Montana State allowed just 15.1 ppg, 6th best in the FCS, fueling the Bobcats' run to the championship game, the first appearance in the title game since 1984. So when Jay Norvell took the Colorado State job, reaching out to Banks, who had been his secondary coach in 2020 at Nevada, was an easy call. But bringing in 5 DB transfers, including only one Power 5 transfer, but multiple lower division guys, suggests the transition isn't going to be easy. Nobody is questioning Michigan's offense. The defense has to replace some dudes, but this is not going to be the week to learn anything. Colorado State had a dismal offense last year, such that Norvell brought Nevada's backup quarterback with him, and named him the starter. The offense is certainly going to be a lot more open, but outmatched this badly in terms of talent, likely just means a lot of interceptions.

MICHIGAN 45, COLORADO STATE 6

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Iowa Hawkeyes

NOON - Iowa City, IA - FS1

IOWA 34, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 17

Buffalo Bulls at Maryland Terrapins

NOON - College Park, MD - BTN

September hasn't been Maryland's issue in recent years. They started 4-0 last year, before getting blasted by Iowa at home in prime time. They reached the top 25 in 2019 and 2018 after pulling upsets of then-ranked Syracuse and Texas. The Bulls has enough talent on defense to at least challenge a Terp offense that overwhelmed lesser opponents last year, at least between the hash marks. That's not where Maryland wants to live though, and with a healthy receiving corps again, there is no excuse for Taulia not to deliver. He ended a season slide by finishing 2021 with his two best games. Tagovailoa was a combined 41-54 (76%), for 577 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, as Maryland beat Rutgers and Virginia Tech by a combined score of 94-26. That was the first time Maryland ended the season on a 2 game winning streak since 2010, the last time Maryland finished a season ranked, so allow Maryland fans some optimism going into 2022. But don't tell them that the momentum carried them into a 2-10 season in 2011. He also has a very experienced offensive line to work behind, returning all 5 starters from 2021, a group that ranked in the top 25 nationally in sack rate. Granted, Taulia's legs may have bailed them out a couple times. Look for Maryland to strike quickly. The Bulls have a solid offense, putting up 30 ppg last year, but they typically don't put up explosive plays. They want to control the clock, and lean on their running game. If Maryland can put up 14 points in the first quarter, Buffalo will have to get out of their comfort zone very quickly. I think you'll see a very fired up performance from Buffalo linebacker James Patterson, who is on the watch list for every single award, and graduated 9 miles from Maryland's campus, but didn't earn an offer from the hometown school. Not enough to matter though,

MARYLAND 38, BUFFALO 20

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles

NOON - Chestnut Hill, MA - ACCN

In this age where Power 5 teams play (at most) one Power 5 opponent out of conference, they all seem to have a bit of juice. Well, I guess almost all. This one has all the juice of a 2003 ESPN+ noon Big East kickoff that you need to pony up for ESPN Gameplan to even get access to. Sure, neither team is good. But they also bring in two apathetic fanbases that will probably be watching a Giants, Jets or Patriots preseason game. And this is two teams that are solid enough defensively, but miserable on offense, so points should be at a premium. This is the last chance for Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovic, the one time bluechip prospect, and former Notre Dame Fighting Irishman, to impress NFL scouts. He has certainly shown flashes, but also struggled in 2021, while dealing with a hand injury. He should put the ball in the air plenty against a Rutgers defense that was solid against the run in 2021, but was dismal against the pass, allowing over 9 ypa, worst in the Big Ten, and 12th worst in the FBS. As bad as the Scarlet Knights' offense was last year, they should have more talent this year, but a whole lot of inexperience. With top running back Isaih Pecheco and to receiver Bo Melton moving on, the leading returning receiver, Shameen Jones, likely won't even start. The leading returning rusher is the backup quarterback. But there is a silver lining there, in that the reason he is the backup quarterback, is that the Gavin Wimsatt era has officially begun. Wimsatt graduated high school a month into the season, arrived in Piscataway, and saw limited action in 3 games, before playing extensively in Rutgers' surprise appearance in the Gator Bowl. He was just 7-16 for 30 yards and an interception. But he also was playing high school football a couple months prior. He was the top member of Rutgers' recruiting class, and second only to Tom Savage in terms of highly rated Rutgers quarterback recruits of the 247 era. As promising as that is for the future, he should be in his first game on campus, going against a guy who should be in the NFL next year.

BOSTON COLLEGE 26, RUTGERS 17

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-1, 0-1)

3:30 - Lincoln, NE - BTN

NEBRASKA 51, NORTH DAKOTA 14

Illinois State Redbirds at #18 Wisconsin Badgers

7:00 - Madison, WI - FS1

WISCONSIN 34, ILLINOIS STATE 0

***GAME OF THE WEEK***

#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

7:30 - Columbus, OH - ABC

Such is college football right now, that even a matchup between a pair of top 5 teams, a pair of helmet schools, meeting in a season opener, doesn't feel like it has the oomph it should. Compared to the Ohio State-Texas series nearly two decades ago, this just feels different. Because there are CFP contenders, and there are national title contenders. And the gap has never felt larger. Notre Dame is a CFP contender. Ohio State is a national title contender. Ryan Day thinks he plugged the leak, his defense, by hiring away Jim Knowles for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys ranked # in the nation in ypg allowed, ppg allowed, and #1 in sacks and explosive play defense. Nobody is going to confuse this with Tressel ball, but what Knowles was able to do, with an offensive first team like Oklahoma State, should be a good sign for a team with an even more explosive offense, and FAR more talent on defense. Certainly more defensive talent on defense than they showed against Oregon or Michigan last year. I think Marcus Freeman is going to kill it at Notre Dame. I think he is going to level up from what Brian Kelly did at Notre Dame. Kelly maximized the talent he had, but Freeman is a great coach, and is, I think going to both increase the level of talent, and maintain the level of coaching. That is what held the Irish back on the big stage. They simply couldn't talent up with Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, or Clemson. Freeman gives them a better chance to do that, but it's going to take a year or two. Sophomore Tyler Buchner will challenge that Buckeye defense. He has a talented group of receivers, led by Lorenzo Styles, but is only a sophomore, with limited experience. If this game was in November (and maybe in South Bend), I'd give them a chance. But this is his first game as THE guy. And as good as his group of receivers is, and they are, I'm not sure any of them would even break into the Buckeyes' top 3 group. With a Heisman trophy finalist throwing to them.

OHIO STATE 37, NOTRE DAME 24

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** August 31, 2022, 09:52:30 AM »

Thursday games in

847badgerfan · « **Reply #2 on:** August 31, 2022, 10:14:36 AM »

Thanks for doing this.

SuperMario · « **Reply #3 on:** August 31, 2022, 10:37:53 AM »

I could be wrong, but I don’t ever remember seeing a shutout prediction in the past. That’s a tough one to get right. Glad to see you still doing this and in such depth.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #4 on:** August 31, 2022, 11:11:03 AM »

Love these ELA. Thank you.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5 on:** August 31, 2022, 11:38:09 AM »

I say each year these are far better than the ESiPN wags.

jgvol · « **Reply #6 on:** August 31, 2022, 11:41:21 AM »

Wow. Outstanding work.

Benthere2 · « **Reply #7 on:** August 31, 2022, 12:33:37 PM »

Quote from: SuperMario on August 31, 2022, 10:37:53 AM

I could be wrong, but I don’t ever remember seeing a shutout prediction in the past. That’s a tough one to get right. Glad to see you still doing this and in such depth.

i too have predicted a shut out for that game. NMSt is not good and coming off a very short week it is a brutal display of an independent needing to compromise a schedule for money

Kill tried to get out of it but could not afford to and had to keep the game on the books. his team might get across the 50 but i will doubt they reach the red zone. and I hope i dont jinx things as i never predict blow outs and the Gopher Staff usually do not run up scores often but the Aggie offense just might score a couple TDs for the Gophers and the defense might be a whole lot different that Nevada's

As for the coaches feud. it is really all one sided and Jerry needs to let go. its not healthy and to be honest a tad petty. but i will say that the Gophers players do love their coach and they read and hear things too. so while the coach might call off the dogs the players might not take an easy approach to Jerry's Team.

ELA · « **Reply #8 on:** August 31, 2022, 12:41:44 PM »

Weekday games all in

ELA · « **Reply #9 on:** September 01, 2022, 03:52:47 PM »

I'll try to get to the rest of these tomorrow. 14 teams, during non-con play is a chore. 16, or 20, or whatever might be untenable

847badgerfan · « **Reply #10 on:** September 01, 2022, 04:19:42 PM »

Quote from: ELA on September 01, 2022, 03:52:47 PM

I'll try to get to the rest of these tomorrow. 14 teams, during non-con play is a chore. 16, or 20, or whatever might be untenable

I'd be happy to help you, but they would mostly suck.

ELA · « **Reply #11 on:** September 02, 2022, 03:21:33 PM »

Noon games all in

847badgerfan · « **Reply #12 on:** September 02, 2022, 03:25:40 PM »

You gonna bother with UW and Illinois State?

ELA · « **Reply #13 on:** September 02, 2022, 04:30:29 PM »

Everything but the OSU-ND game in

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Topic: ELA September 3 Breakdown

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ELA September 3 Breakdown

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