These two teams met in TCF Bank Stadium last year on November 10, in very different places. The Boilermakers were sitting at 4-2 in the Big Ten, 1 game out of first place in the West, having beat #2 Ohio State and #19 Iowa in two of the prior three weeks. Minnesota gave up 55 points to Illinois, had fired their defensive coordinator, and were just 1-5 in the Big Ten. The Gophers trucked Purdue, running out to a 41-3 lead, winning 41-10. That has kicked off a run where Minnesota has won 6 of 7, including a bowl victory and their first Axe win since 2003. The Boilermakers have since lost 5 of 7, with the wins being against Indiana and Vanderbilt. Less than a year after a very surprising Gopher win, Minnesota finds themselves favored in West Lafayette. For Purdue to have any shot, Elijah Sindelar needs to be cleared from concussion protocol. Gary Patterson typically fields a good defense, but Jack Plummer's 44.8% completion percentage and 5.8 QBR from the TCU loss, won't allow Purdue to beat many teams. And after seeing the Horned Frogs give up over 400 yards and 41 points to SMU last weekend, Purdue's 204 yard, 13 point effort is even more alarming. Plummer's lack of accuracy essentially rendered Purdue's receivers useless. Only tight end Bryce Hopkins played up to expectations in that game. And if Purdue isn't getting anything from their receivers, they have no offense. The Boilermakers averaged under a yard per carry, bringing their season average down to 2.1 ypc, 4th worst in the FBS. We knew that graduations and injuries were going to hamper the running back group, but the totally green interior line has been worse than feared. They rank #128 in the FBS in total line yards, and are dead last in opportunity rate, meaning the percentage of carries that go for 4 yards (excluding plays with less than 4 yards available), at just 28.3%. The NCAA average is about 48%. The trench concerns are on both sides of the ball, with the Boilermakers also having the second worst run defense in the Big Ten. TCU couldn't pass at all, but they ran for 346 yards on 6.0 ypc against Purdue, with a pair of 100 yard rushers. Uh oh, here comes a Minnesota team that returns Shannon Brooks, to add to a backfield that already boasts a pair of 1,000 yard rushers in Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim, giving Gopher fans images of their early 2000s stables, and is rolling with...2.6 ypc? Second worst in the Big Ten? Purdue at least has the excuse that even if their line were playing better, they don't have the backs to take advantage, Minnesota can make no such claim. Their line has also struggled in similar areas to Purdue. Not quite as much, but Purdue can at least pass block. Minnesota is not just not run blocking, but surrendering a Big Ten worst 3.7 sacks per game, despite throwing the ball less than anyone. No surprise their sack rate of 14.29% is among the worst in the nation. If Sindelar plays, this game is a toss up, but I have some faith that Minnesota can find their ground game against this run defense. |