Author
Topic: ELA September 25 Breakdown
(Read 884 times)

ELA · « **on:** September 22, 2021, 10:22:19 AM »

Bowling Green Falcons (1-2) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-1, 1-2)

NOON - Minneapolis, MN - ESPNU

While I acknowledged that Colorado's offense had their problems, I thought Minnesota's defensive issues might be slightly more glaring. The Gophers went out and proved me quite wrong, going up and completely shutting down the Buffs, in altitude. Now they just need to do what they failed to do two weeks ago, and put their foot on the throat of an Ohio MAC school. Once again they will be facing a school with a set of offensive struggles, which has not exactly been the case for Bowling Green in recent years, as they've typically scored a lot of points, just given up more, up until last year. Not so much this year, as the offense has only scored one touchdown total in two games against FBS opponents. The passing game hasn't been the issue, as thus far senior Matt McDonald has bounced back after a disappointing debut as the starter last year, completing just 43% of his passes, for one touchdown and 6 interceptions. The Boston College transfer had offseason shoulder surgery, and it seems to have worked, as he's now completed over 71% of his passes. As bad as the offense was last year, the run game was at least competent, top 50 in the nation, but this year they are averaging under 2 ypc as a team, third worst in the nation. Not a time to meet a Gopher defense that just gave up their lowest yardage total in a game since holding Michigan to 50 yards in 1962, in holding Colorado to just 63. Trey Potts continued to be a more than apt fill in for Mo Ibrahim, with 121 yards on 4.7 ypc and 3 touchdowns, giving him 5 rushing touchdowns in 2 games as the starting back. Tanner Morgan has thrown 17 passes in the past two games, as Minnesota has ridden Potts and that defense to the 4th best time of possession in the nation. I imagine more of the same this week.

MINNESOTA 41, BOWLING GREEN 9

Ohio Bobcats (0-3) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-1, 1-2)

NOON - Evanston, IL - BTN

We've seen this story before, so it might not be totally time to count the Cats out. In 2018, they started 1-3, with a two touchdown loss to Duke, and a home loss to Akron; before finishing 8-2, with both losses coming to College Football Playoff teams, and their first ever Big Ten Championship Game birth. In 2017 they started 2-3, with a blowout loss to Duke; before finishing the year 8-0. In 2016, they started 1-3, with losses to Western Michigan and FCS Illinois State, before finishing 6-3, with 2 losses coming against 11 win teams in Ohio State and Wisconsin. So we've seen plenty of examples of slow starts and hot finishes in Pat Fitzgerald's recent tenure. But this is a different team, so what is there to point to? Well, Northwestern may have finally found it's quarterback. Hunter Johnson was a disaster in 2019, but he looked decent against Michigan State (we'll discuss the Spartans' secondary later) before a disappointing performance against Indiana State, and then a 6-16 start against Duke, with 3 interceptions, before getting benched. South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski responded by going 2-7 for 34 yards, and then getting re-benched himself. Enter 5th year senior Andrew Marty, who had been used sparingly as sort of a wildcat quarterback the past two years in spots. He responded by going 11-16 for 151 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, to lead the Cats back from a 30-7 halftime deficit at Duke, before falling short 30-23, after the defense failed to get the ball back on the Blue Devils' last possession. Speaking of that defense, is it finally waking up? Duke tallied 30 points on 410 yards (7.5 ypp), forcing only one punt in the first half; before shutting Duke out in the second half and holding them to just 88 yards (1.9 ypp).

NORTHWESTERN 37, OHIO 14

Villanova Wildcats (3-0) at #6 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 3-0)

NOON - State College, PA - BTN

PENN STATE 38, VILLANOVA 9

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) at #19 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)

3:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

Wherever Michigan's season goes from here, it was perhaps the win last year at Rutgers that put them in a place to have this success. The Wolverines had lost 3 in a row, one as a 4 touchdown favorite, and the other two in blowout fashion, were trailing Rutgers 17-0 late in the first half, with just a 12% chance to win, and probably a similar chance of Harbaugh being back in 2021. The season was completely off the rails. Instead Harbaugh decided to pivot away from his Cam Newton/Vince Young hybrid in Joe Milton, to Cade McNamera. McNamera almost immediately hit Conelius Johnson for a 43 yard touchdown pass, sparking a 48-42 triple overtime win. McNamera finished 27-36 for 260 yards, 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and no interceptions. He had run off Milton, but was surely going to be supplanted by incoming 5* recruit J.J. McNamera, right? Nope. People act like he's some scrappy walk on. 247 ranked him as the #7 pro style QB coming out of high school, a 4* recruit who chose Michigan over USC. No, Michigan isn't winning BECAUSE of him, but he is certainly allowing them to win. Right now though, until someone forces McNamera to beat them, he will keep on picking his spots. Rutgers will try, but as bad as Washington is, their defense is still #15 in the nation in SP+. They held Arkansas State to 48 rushing yards on 2.1 ypc last week. Michigan ran 56 times for 343 yards on 6.1 ypc on them. And in the rain, with Michigan leading, and McNamera throwing just 14 passes, you know Washington was loaded up to stop the run. They just couldn't do it. As good as Rutgers is on defense, I'm not confident they are better than Washington, and now down their best cornerback, and another one in the rotation, just how confident is Greg Schiano in selling out to completely stop the run? My guess is less so than he otherwise would have. The Wolverines have their own issues at cornerback, so Noah Vedral, who has completed 80% of his passes over his last two games, is efficient enough to perhaps take some advantage to move the ball a little bit better than expected. Remember, Washington did move the ball a little better than the final score would indicate. Michigan is 3-0 against Rutgers in Ann Arbor, with an average score of 45-10. I think the game will be a little better this year.

MICHIGAN 35, RUTGERS 23

Colorado State Rams (1-2) at #5 Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0, 3-0)

3:30 - Iowa City, IA - FS1

There will likely be a game where Iowa's offense, or lack thereof, will catch up to them. This is not that week. The Rams struggle to score against everyone, although they are improved from 2020, when they were ranked in the 100s in scoring offense, total offense and rushing offense. But they don't particularly need the added challenge of the Iowa defense which ranks #2 nationally in SP+, behind only Georgia. They do have a couple of big weapons on offense, with Boston College transfer running back David Bailey, who followed coach Steve Addazio. Bailey finally found some traction last week after being a little quiet, both in terms of participation and production the previous two weeks. Then at tight end, the Rams have Trey McBride, who might be the first tight end off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft. SI currently has him ranked as the #2 tight end prospect, and he leads the nation in receptions. They opened with losses to South Dakota State and then Vanderbilt, before turning in their out stout defensive performance last week, beating Toledo, in Ohio, 22-6. That is maybe a little bit of a concern for an Iowa offense that remains in the bottom half of the FBS in SP+. Their 68 spot edge in defense, makes them the 4th most defensively lopsided team in the FBS, behind only San Diego State, UAB and Northwestern. The Rams defense looked pretty good last week against a Toledo offense that brought back some offensive weapons, holding the Rockets to just 21 rushing yards. That was a week after holding Vanderbilt to just 2.8 ypc. Granted in their opener, South Dakota State, who might have been their best opponent to date, even acknowledging they've played a Power Five schoo, and the Jackrabbits ran for 242 yards on 7.1 ypc. When Iowa was unable to run the ball against Iowa State (67 yards on 1.7 ypc and only run run of 10+ yards), they needed a +4 TO differential to survive being doubled up in yards and first downs. My guess is the Colorado State run defense looks a lot more like they did against South Dakota State. Oh, and as for McBride, if any defense is well versed in practicing against NFL tight ends, it's Iowa's

IOWA 41, COLORADO STATE 7

Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1, 1-3) at Purdue Boilermakers (0-0, 2-1)

3:30 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

Since this is a conference game, I guess the best version of Illinois is planning on showing up. That's the version that beat Nebraska, and gave Maryland everything they wanted, but couldn't hold on late. Not the one that is 0-2 out of conference, with a home loss to UTSA, and a blowout loss to Virginia. Purdue just hopes they get to field the version of their offense that includes David Bell. Bell left the Notre Dame loss in concussion protocol, and its unclear if he's going to play on Saturday. He's the most dynamic player in the conference, and one that Purdue, who is almost entirely dependent on the passing game, can't afford to be without. Getting Payne Durham back on track will certainly help. It's not for lack of trying, as the tight end did catch 6 passes last week, but for just 29 yards, which is nearly impossible to do. Or, alternatively, they could run the ball. The Boilermakers have the worst run game in the conference, but Illinois might have the worst run defense. Statistically, Ohio State and Northwestern are worse; but Ohio State has too many dudes to be a bottom two run defense, and Northwestern is still smarting from Kenneth Walker running all over them in Week One. For Illinois' offense, Brandon Peters was back, but very ineffective. If he struggles again, you wonder how quick the hook might be. The Illini got a boost from a pair of 60 yard rushers last week, but Purdue has been pretty good against the run, just susceptible to the big play. Illinois wants to get ahead and run the ball, like they were able to do against Nebraska. If Purdue is able to put a couple scores on the board early, I have a hard time seeing Illinois coming back. I'm also basing this on the assumption that Bell is going to play.

PURDUE 31, ILLINOIS 20

Kent State Golden Flashes (1-2) at Maryland Terrapins (1-0, 3-0)

3:30 - College Park, MD - BTN

If Maryland thinks they can exhale, after surviving a road night conference tilt, they better think again. Kent State is likely going to start 1-3, but that is against a murderers row of a schedule. The Terps will be the worst FBS team that the Golden Flashes have played to date, after losing to a pair of top seven teams in Texas A&M and Iowa. While the scores in those games were not necessarily close, Kent State played very well, and had a game changing red zone turnover in each, that wound up costing them. They were only down 13-3 to Texas A&M with 7 minutes left in the third, and in the red zone looking to make it a one score game, when instead an 85 yard pick six completely flipped everything. Likewise, they were down 16-7 late in the 3rd, with a 1st and goal at the 1, looking to make it 16-14, and instead fumbled the ball and Iowa recovered. Sean Lewis, a Dino Babers disciple, who played for Bret Bielema at Wisconsin, is probably not long for Kent State. In just three years, as the youngest coach in the FBS, he has already coached the school to their first back to back winning seasons since the 1970s. When they had Nick Saban and Jack Lambert playing, with future Washington coach Don James coaching. So it's not just a flash in the pan, he seems to have the program on it's most stable footing in two generations. So while a lot of MAC coaches have gotten a promotion to a Power Five school after one flash in the pan season, Lewis is seemingly building a program...and he's still just 34. The offense is going to push Maryland, whose defense is fine, but Iowa and Texas A&M boast the #2 and #5 SP+ defenses in the country, so to look too much into how the offense fared against them is unfair. The problem is both of those offenses have struggled mightily, and both were fairly efficient against the Golden Flashes. Taulia should be able to put up some point.

MARYLAND 34, KENT STATE 23

GAME OF THE WEEK

#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) vs. #18 Wisconsin Badgers (0-1, 1-1)

NOON - Chicago, IL - FOX

As much as I hate neutral site college football games, this one actually makes some sense, and could be fun. Chicago is sort of the epicenter of Big Ten fandom, Notre Dame has a heavy alumni/fan base there as well. Soldier Field has more personality than the run of southern domes that host the Labor Day weekend games. So, I'd rather this be in South Bend or Madison, but if we've got to this, it could be worse. Notre Dame is undefeated, but in a manner that raises more questions than it answers. They needed overtime to beat a Florida State team that might go 3-9. Nearly lost their "streaming" game against Toledo. And finally looked ok last week, but far from dominant, in beating Purdue by two scores. But they actually have a quarterback who Wisconsin should probably be envious of. Jack Coan has been terrific, and Brian Kelly's trust in him has grown each week. And the Irish, who were full of question marks at receiver, with the only sure thing being tight end, has much more of a downfield passing game than anybody expected. But they haven't faced a defense like Wisconsin, who is #2 in the nation in total defense. The question is the Wisconsin offense. Yes, it looked much better against Eastern Michigan. That offense is always going to be low variance, and whenever the Badgers face a team with a significant talent disadvantage, they maul them into the ground. The great Wisconsin teams are the years where they are also able to impose their will on teams with even to better talent (or they have Russell Wilson). Week One still has me worried about whether this is one of those years or not. Graham Mertz is a blue chip recruit, who had an amazing debut. But he was pretty dismal after that, and those hoping it was just a post COVID blip, the results against Penn State were not inspiring. He struggles facing pressure, something Wisconsin quarterbacks rarely have, due to an NFL offensive line, and a running game that makes for a killer play action attack. I have not seen Mertz look comfortable at all in the play action game, and if the Irish keep hitting on long plays, that should be enough. Even if it's all boom or bust.

NOTRE DAME 24, WISCONSIN 23

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** September 22, 2021, 10:46:55 AM »

All noon games (except Game of the Week) are in

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 24, 2021, 04:32:50 PM »

All afternoon games in

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** September 24, 2021, 04:57:46 PM »

Jumped back to knock out the GOTW. Hopefully will have some time to knock out the others before kickoff

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.

Topic: ELA September 25 Breakdown

ELA

ELA September 25 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA September 25 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA September 25 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA September 25 Breakdown