UNLV Rebels (1-1) at #10 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 2-1)
NOON - Columbus, OH - BTN
Another week where it is going to be tough to figure out how much progress the Buckeyes have made. UNLV made a lot of noise in Week 1, for the wrong reason. They were on the wrong end of the biggest upset in college football history, as far as point spreads go, losing to FCS bottom feeder Howard. Remember how bad Rutgers was last year? They beat Howard 52-14. The Bison followed the upset of UNLV by losing to Kent State, and getting pounded 68-21 by Richmond, so it's not like that program has turned some corner. But then much more quietly UNLV went on the road and blew out an Idaho team coming off a bowl bid, 44-16. The same Idaho team that followed that by playing even with Western Michigan for 3 quarters. So UNLV probably isn't as terrible as that Howard loss would suggest. But that Howard loss is as unforgivable as it gets. The Rebels got national pub when they hired former national high school power Bishop Gorman's head coach, Tony Sanchez in 2015. He seemed to generate at least a little renewed energy, but it hasn't translated to the field, where he is 8-18 in three seasons. Armani Rogers should at least test the Buckeye back seven that Baker Mayfield ripped apart. He's an exciting quarterback, who turned down Pac 12 offers from Washington, UCLA, Cal and Utah, to head to Vegas. But he's also a redshirt freshman with 2 games under his belt. He's averaging over 200 yards per game passing, and 84 rushing. But they haven't asked him to do too much either. Your stats can be helped by a catch and run 94 yard touchdown, as he had last week. That might be what the Buckeye defense needs though. A quarterback who can challenge you (as opposed to preparing for the triple option last week), but probably isn't going to be any sort of threat to win. Granted, with Rutgers and Nebraska in the next three weeks, around perhaps a sneaky test against Maryland, it's not as though the excuse against Penn State can be lack of prep time.
OHIO STATE 52, UNLV 10
Central Florida Knights (1-0) at Maryland Terrapins (2-0)
3:00 - College Park, MD - FS1
If you want to watch a 4 hour game with the teams running back and forth all afternoon, this is your game. The Terps lead the Big Ten in scoring by 10 ppg, at 57.0 ppg, and while they have only played one game, Central Florida is the same in the AAC, with 61 points scored in that game. In that one game it looked like Scott Frost's offense was fully implemented in Year 2, looking a lot like those Oregon offenses he coached, and looking like a very nice option (no pun intended) to get his alma mater back to where they were during his playing days. If the games against Memphis and Georgia Tech had been played, we'd obviously have a pretty good read on just how good this team is. Instead we solely have to rely on an FIU game played 3 weeks ago tonight. McKenzie Milton did not look a bit like the kid who struggled in his extensive action last year, throwing for 360 yards with a 76% completion percentage on a staggering 17.1 ypa. When you hit on 3/4 of your passes, and you have 7 passes of 20 yards or longer, including three over 50 yards, that ypa average will creep up there. Milton made his debut last year in a double overtime loss to these Terps, when Justin Holman was hurt, and he stuggled big time. He had only 7 yards on 9 carries, had 6 fumbles, losing 3, and throwing a pick. If Maryland can keep him bottled up like that again, I don't think it will take double overtime for Maryland to win. Last year Tyrrell Pigrome replaced an injured Perry Hills for one play, and ran 24 yards for the winning touchdown. Now Pigrome is hurt, and Kasim Hill gets his first FBS start. Hill looked good last week, but Towson didn't really do much to challenge him. Ty Johnson has picked up where he left off. Getting few touches, but doing a lot with them. After averaging 11.0 ypc on 12 touches against Texas, he averaged 24.8 on only 5 against Central Florida. I'm not sure Maryland has enough weapons to get by on using him so sparingly once they get into Big Ten play, but for now the formula is working, and this Knights defense gave up over 5 ypc against FIU. I think Johnson has a few big ones in him on Saturday afternoon.
MARYLAND 41, CENTRAL FLORIDA 38
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-2) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-2)
3:30 - Lincoln, NE - BTN
Forgive me if a matchup between the Big Ten's worst program, who joined in 2014, and the Big Ten's most disappointing team this year, who joined in 2011, doesn't light my fire to get conference play rolling. It's hard for me to even take this as a Big Ten game. Rutgers needed to dominate a horrible Morgan State team, and they did. But remember last year they dominated their horrible FCS opponent as well. After a home loss to Eastern Michigan, it's clear this wasn't going to be a one year rebuild. Nebraska had their sights set on a division title, trying to build on their improvement from 2015 to 2016. Instead, it seems to have gone in the other direction. Over the first six quarters of the year, the defense was abysmal. The turnover over the last six quarters is telling, perhaps as new Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco's has set in. While he didn't win at UConn, he is a proven defensive coordinator, as Notre Dame's defense has gone to shambles since he left following the 2013 season. But as the defense has improved, the offense has gone the other way. I've openly wondered why they was so much optimism surrounding a mediocre Tulane transfer quarterback, and Tanner Lee has done nothing to change my mind about that. No matter how well your defense plays, it's tough to overcome a pair of pick 6s in a game where your offense puts up only 17. Lee forced the defense to be perfect...and they nearly were. But it's clear how broken this offense is without Tre Bryant. The Husky run defense is tough. They allowed 60 yards on 1.3 ypc against Eastern Illinois, and 148 yards on only 3.0 ypc against Boston College, but for a Big Ten team, particularly a helmet team like Nebraska, to average only 2.4 ypc is unacceptable. While Rutgers has struggled, their defense looks to be substantially better than a year ago. They held Jake Browning relatively in check, and only Michigan and Minnesota have better ypc rush defense than Rutgers' 2.9. Lose this one and Mike Riley might not survive the week. I'm not sure what that accomplishes, but the pitchforks will be out. Whatever his faults, I think Riley's players legitimately love him. And he's not some bum, he won at Oregon State, not easy to do. I think the players have a nice response week.
NEBRASKA 34, RUTGERS 21
Georgia Southern Eagles (0-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-1, 1-1)
3:30 - Bloomington, IN - BTN
For those thinking this looks like a dangerous game for the Hoosiers have memories of Georgia Southern's nasty triple option under Paul Johnson, reaching three straight FCS Final Fours from 2010-12, beating Florida in the Swamp in 2013, going 8-0 and winning the Sun Belt in 2014 in their first year in FBS in 2014, and reaching a bowl game in 2015, the first year they were eligible. These are not those Eagles. When Willie Fritz left for Tulane, and Tyson Summers came in, and scrapped their traditional triple option look, the program took a nose dive. It started off well enough last year at 0-3, but a 2-7 finish ensured the Eagles of their first FBS losing season. It reminded fans of the one year Brian VanGorder disaster when he took over for one year in 2006, scrapped the triple option, and finished 3-8. The once feared Eagle rushing attack is sputtering along to 2.9 ypc, 2nd worst in the Sun Belt. It's not as though the passing game is picking up the slack. At only 50.5 yards per game, they rank 2nd worst in the FBS, ahead of only Army, and their 4 completed passes on the season. Struggling against Auburn's defense is forgiveable, but Shai Werts was 11-22 for 93 yards and a pick against New Hampshire last week too. I suppose that's better than his 4-8, 8 yard, 1 pick day against the Tigers. This should be decent test for a Hoosier run defense that has looked very shaky through two games. It's an opponent that wants to run, but that Indiana should be able to out-talent. Indiana should be able to dominate along the line, Georgia Southern has already given up 11 sacks...and they've only attempted 30 passes. Granted I can't find their total dropback number. Werts is their leading rusher, and I can't imagine all of those are designed.
INDIANA 35, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 14
#8 Michigan Wolverines (3-0) at Purdue Boilermakers (2-1)
4:00 - West Lafayette, IN - FOX
The story of the conference thus far (aside from maybe how disappointing Nebraska looks) is how quickly Purdue seems to have bounced back under Coach Brohm. Is Michigan just sleepwalking or is their offense this blah? Wilton Speight has gotten the bulk of the blame, but the offensive line has been equally underwhelming. The loss of Tariq Black and possible loss of Ty Isaac doesn't give much hope of it looking better this week, particularly as Michigan plays their first true road game of the season, and Michigan under Harbaugh has not looked nearly the same in those types of games. But how good really is Purdue? The Louisville "close loss" doesn't look nearly as good after watching the Cardinals get run off their own field last weekend. Then they handled a MAC team at home and a trainwreck of a Missouri team. But you can only play who you play, and Purdue has done what they've needed to do, and looked very efficient while doing it. Now they have their stage, and if they pull this one out, the top might blow off the whole thing for a program that's been waiting a decade for this. When was the last time there was anticipation around campus for a home game like this? You probably have to go all the way back to October 6, 2007 when a 5-0 #23 Purdue team coming off a road win at Minnesota and a home win over Notre Dame, hosted #4 Ohio State in a night game. That night the Buckeyes raced to a 23-0 4th quarter lead before Purdue tacked on a late touchdown. Purdue doesn't have the defensive line play to force a ton of three and outs, so they need to exploit Michigan's red zone woes to force the Wolverines to settle for threes. That's what Cincinnati and Air Force did to make games that felt lopsided be very much in doubt late. Michigan's red zone touchdown rate of 10% is by far worst in the conference, nobody else is under 60%. Fortunately Michigan has probably the best kicker in the conference, or they probably would not be 3-0. For their part Purdue has one of the better reed zone defenses at forcing field goal attempts. Of the conference teams who have faced at least 10 red zone attempts, only Purdue is holding opponents out over 50% of the time. The problem is how can Purdue move the ball without balance? They want to throw a lot. David Blough has shown great ball security thus far, with a conference best 76.1% completion percentage and only 2 picks. But for all of the good he's shown over the past two years, avoiding picks has not been a strength, throwing 21 picks a year ago. If Purdue can't establish a ground game, Michigan's defense will have another chance to be their best offense.
MICHIGAN 34, PURDUE 17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) at Michigan State Spartans (2-0)
8:00 - East Lansing, MI - FOX
One of the rare Big Ten non-conference rivalries, one with a rich history in the makeup of the Big Ten, is coming to an end, more or less, after Saturday night. It's a shame. If it were up to me, Notre Dame would play Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, the military academies, USC and Stanford every year, then rotate the rest. But that model was unsustainable, and the need to work out a scheduling agreement with the ACC rendered some of these series dead. Doesn't mean we can't enjoy the final one though. One that has provided a lot of great games over the past 20 years and in it's deep history, most notably the Game of the Century. This game feels important for Michigan State in determining how "back" they are, but as the Lansing State Journal pointed out this week, this game is usually a false barometer, both good and bad, for the Spartans. Remember last year Michigan State held a 36-7 lead in South Bend, before Notre Dame made it close late...and then went 1-9 the rest of the way. In the five seasons in the past 30 years where Michigan State has played Notre Dame and won a Big Ten division and/or conference title, the Spartans lost 4 of the 5 games to the Irish, including in both of their Rose Bowl Championship seasons. Vice versa, in the 12 times Michigan State has won the game in the past 20 years (including last year) they have posted a winning conference record only four times. What's clear is that both teams want to establish the run game, but it's more critical for the Irish. Wimbush isn't the passer Lewerke is, and if Notre Dame can't stay ahead of the sticks, he's going to struggle. His biggest threat obviously is with his legs, setting a school record last week for rushing yards by a quarterback with 207. Fortunately for the Spartans the one pretty consistent strength for Mark Dantonio's defenses has been bottling up running quarterbacks. Wimbush isn't going to need to throw for 300 yards, but his 11-24 for 96 yard day against Boston College probably won't come close to getting it done. The Michigan State defensive line has been better than expected so far, and Western Michigan's offensive line showed against USC it's no slouch. But the left side of that Irish line is probably as nasty as Michigan State will see all year, and I'm not sure they have the speed at linebacker to contain Wimbush like Georgia does. The home crowd, excited for the first big football game in two years, under the lights will carry Michigan State early, but I think Notre Dame wears them down over the course of the second half, and eases the pressure on Brian Kelly very temporarily.
NOTRE DAME 27, MICHIGAN STATE 26
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#4 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0)
7:30 - Iowa City, IA - ABC
While perhaps late October games against Michigan and Ohio State will settle the East, and determine Penn State's playoff fate, this game is plenty scary. Last year in a night game at home the Hawkeyes upset #2 Michigan 14-13, in a defensive slugfest. The Hawkeyes have won their last 4 night games in Kinnick, their last loss coming to Penn State back in 2012, and that was a lousy 4-8 Iowa team that dropped its final six games of the year. Penn State has looked like the most complete team in the conference, but a schedule that already looked fairly weak took another hit when Oklahoma State had their way with a Pitt defense in Heinz Field a week after the Nittany Lion offensive line struggled to block that same Panther front in Happy Valley. Iowa has been far from perfect themselves. A convincing win over what was supposed to be an upstart Wyoming team looks not so impressive now, they pulled out a miracle win over Iowa State, and trailed North Texas in the third quarter before scoring 21 unanswered points. With Akrum Wadley a little dinged up, the Hawkeyes are going to need the Nathan Stanley they saw in Ames. He completed 66% of his passes for 333 yards, 5 touchdowns and no picks. In the Hawkeyes other two games he's completed only 57% of his passes, and averaging 161 ypg. Penn State's offensive line is improving from the disaster it had been, but it still has a ways to go. What Joe Moorhead has done is a better job of scheming around that deficiency, and McSorley has a knack for improvisation. For all of the inconsistencies, the Nittany Lions have only allowed 2 sacks on the year. Better than anyone in the conference other than Minnesota. I think this one will come down to two things. Penn State's ability to hit big plays. They've relied on them already this year, and really going back to last year. They aren't doing a great job sustaining drives. They have the athletes to hit on those plays against Akron, Pitt and Georgia State. They have a talent gap with Iowa, but it is obviously far narrower, and the Hawkeyes are doing as good a job as anyone in the country getting teams off the field. The second factor is that Kinnick night crowd.
IOWA 27, PENN STATE 26
