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Topic: ELA September 18 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** September 15, 2021, 08:39:39 AM »

Maryland Terrapins (0-0, 2-0) at Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0, 1-2)

9:00 Friday - Champaign, IL - FS1

The thought that the Illinois offense was going to continue to be ok with Art Sitkoski playing in place of injured Brandon Peters became more and more of a reach each week. He opened by completing 80% of his passes against Nebraska, in relief, with a passer rating of 193, and a QBR of 96.3. That fell to 52%, 129.1 and 63.7 against UTSA. That's still above average, and the offense scored 30 points, which should be enough against a Conference USA opponent. The wheels sort of came off at Virginia last week with a passer rating falling to 97.5 and QBR to 52.6. Bielema confirmed that Brandon Peters will be back this week, and he is needed, because while Sitkowski was far down the list of problems, he can't afford to be any problem with just how bad the Illinois defense is. They rank #88 in Defensive SP+, easily the worst in the Big Ten. They have excelled on special teams, ranking #2 in the nation in that metric, now they just need to force some punts. That is going to be tough for an group that is giving up 311 yards per game in the air, in the bottom ten nationally. That was against Adrian Martinez, Frank Harris, and Brennan Armstrong. Taulia Tagovailoa looks to be on a different level, at least talent wise, than any of those guys. He does need to do it in a hostile environment. He struggled badly in road games last year at Northwestern and Indiana, although he played well at Penn State. Remember what road environments were like last year though. He's never really had to go into a truly hostile road environment and win. Memorial Stadium is not Camp Randall or the Horseshoe, but it is his first real road game, on a Friday night, and Memorial Stadium will be rocking. On paper, it looks like a game that Maryland should win by 2+ scores. I think the intangibles break Illinois' way, and it's closer than it should be.

MARYLAND 27, ILLINOIS 26

Michigan State Spartans (1-0, 2-0) at #24 Miami Hurricanes (1-1)

NOON - Miami, FL - ABC

The Spartans have managed to look a lot better offensively by controlling the game on the ground. For the first time, Payton Thorne might have to take the lead on some drives. Chase Brice completed 62% of his passes against the Canes defense last week, but for under 6 yards per attempt, and under 10 yards per completion. The Michigan State passing game has been much more vertical, so they can survive below 60% completions from Thorne, but if they fail to stretch the field, this offense is going to bog down. The gap between Thorne and his counterpart, D'Eriq King is far more narrow than anyone would have guessed early last year. Thorne was battling Theo Day to be Michigan State's #2 quarterback, while King was in the early Heisman discussion in 2020. Now King is sitting #87 in the nation in QBR; while both quarterbacks ahead of Thorne on Michigan State's depth chart transferred after Thorne passed them, and Thorne ranks 6th nationally, #1 in the Big Ten in QBR. That casts a little bit of doubt as to just how close to 100% King is after suffering a torn ACL last December. The other fly in the ointment is Alabama. Are all of the numbers so skewed by Bama accounting for half of that? Or did Alabama break them? The Canes have struggled to run the ball, averaging just 3.5 ypc, which had led to all sorts of problems in the red zone, where they have only punched the ball in twice in eight tries. The cure for that might be a Michigan State run defense whose overall numbers look a lot better than their inability to get stops when needed. Last week against Youngstown State, the Spartans defense got the Penguins into 3rd down 20 times. 13 times (65%), Youngstown State picked up the first down on either 3rd or 4th down. Michigan State is getting a lot of positive press early in the year, and the offense looks good for the first time since prior to the Connor Cook injury in the middle of 2015, but it's still a Northwestern team that bad Michigan State teams beat the last two years, and an FCS team. If Michigan State can keep up this pace on the ground, I think they can win, but against a Canes defensive line that lacks the sure fire NFL stud they had the past couple years, but can rotate 10 guys in without dropoff, I think it's a little too much to ask of Thorne.

MIAMI 30, MICHIGAN STATE 24

Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-1, 2-1) at #3 Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)

NOON - Norman, OK - FOX

I think we all wish we could have that Illinois game back for Nebraska. While it probably wouldn't change my opinion of the Huskers, it might at least give this renewed rivalry a little more juice. Considering the first try at renewing an old Big 8/12 ended with a pair of losses to Colorado, the Huskers would like to start this series off on a better foot. It's a series of wild swings. The Huskers started 16-3-3 through 1942; then Bud Wilkinson swung things to the Sooners, winning 16 straight from 1943-1958. After a period of evenness, Oklahoma retook command, winning 9 of 10 from 1972-1980, before Nebraska went 12-5 over the next two decades (with 4 of Oklahoma's wins coming consecutively in the mid 80s), and winning the 7 games prior to Bob Stoops arriving in Norman. After Nebraska's last great team in 2001, the Sooners closed the rivalry winning 5 of 6. How can Nebraska slow down the Oklahoma offense? They can't, but if it looks like it did against Tulane, it may stop itself. Spencer Rattler threw two costly interceptions, and the offensive line looked uncharacteristically like a total mess. Granted they still scored 40 points. So, assume Nebraska's defense is at least somewhat better than Tulane's, but will Rattler make not only a similar number of mistakes, but similar in terms of costliness? If not, that's probably a wash, and Oklahoma is still going to put up 40+ points. The Sooners defense isn't great, but the line is, and Nebraska has struggled mightily in the passing game. Adrian Martinez is running as well as he ever has, and Frost has a balanced stable of running backs, with four guys averaging over 4 carries per game. But Oklahoma can generate a ton of pressure with just 4, and for all of the possible issues with Oklahoma's secondary, if the Sooners can get by bringing just four, I don't like the chances of Martinez throwing into seven man defenses.

OKLAHOMA 41, NEBRASKA 24

#8 Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-1, 1-1)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - ESPN

While each Iowa interception reduced the chances that Gameday would be headed to Bloomington, for technically the second time ever, although the previous one was for a Thursday night opener, so they've never had a "real" one. Cincinnati was the guest for a Gameday in Orlando back in 2018. But hopefully that doesn't diminish a crowded noon kickoff, with the Oklahoma-Nebraska and MSU-Miami games kicking off at the same time. It's still a big game, and even if Indiana isn't ranked, it would still be a pretty big resume builder for the Bearcats, trying to return to the New Years Six. Their offense has been rolling thus far, albeit against Miami(Ohio) and Murray State. This will be a far tougher task. The Hoosier defense carried them last year, and there is little reason to think anything has changed. Even in their 34-6 loss to Iowa, the defense played well, with Iowa scoring off two pick sixes; one 56 yard run; and a shanked punt that allowed Iowa to start in Hoosier territory. They will certainly have their hands full with a Cincinnati offense led by Desmond Ridder and a passing attack that is absolutely clicking. His 11.4 ypa is second best nationally among quarterbacks with at least 45 attempts, 5th overall. Indiana has quickly pivoted from being all offense, to being led by their defense, but with an experienced set of skill position players, they need a lot more than they are getting. Even in putting up 56 points against Idaho, the Hoosiers didn't make it look easy. Michael Penix Jr. looks like he may have suffered one too many injuries. He's last in the Big Ten in passer rating and yard per attempt, and second to last in completion percentage and Total QBR. While Iowa's defense is nasty, even against Idaho, he was just 11-16 for 68 yards. He's trying to shoulder too much, as USC transfer Stephen Carr has yet to find his footing. It's not for lack of trying, Carr has already gotten 41 carries, tied for 9th nationally, but is picking up just over 4 ypc, 2nd worst of that group, and leading an Indiana run game that is third worst in the conference

CINCINNATI 31, INDIANA 28

Northern Illinois Huskies (1-1) at #25 Michigan Wolverines (2-0)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - BTN

The Rocky II storylines are tired. But what I think is valid about the discussion of Rocky Lombardi leading Michigan State to an upset in Michigan Stadium last year, before transferring to Northern Illinois, is that he has the skill set to pull off an upset. The one thing he has, is a cannon arm, with a good deep ball. His accuracy is otherwise horrific, see his three interceptions last week, costing Northern Illinois a chance to beat Wyoming. You want him to lead your offense on sustained drives? Ain't happening. But 2020 Michigan State and 2021 Northern Illinois aren't sustaining drives against Michigan anyway. Michigan's cornerbacks still look very vulnerable, and you know Lombardi is itching to challenge them deep again. The big difference, is I don't think he is going to have the time to pull it off this year. As bad as Michigan State's offensive line was last year, it's better than Northern Illinois', but more importantly, Michigan's defensive line looks like the dominant unit we had grown accustomed to from 2015-2019. I was skeptical about Aidan Hutchinson returning to school, but he is looking like the guy who is making that move pay off, possibly into being a top ten pick. Through two games he has been nearly unblockable. Offensively, the only thing limiting how many points Michigan will score, against a defense that surrendered 50 to Wyoming last week, is that they'll be running the ball so much, the clock will keep running. The Wolverines have run the ball 75% of the time this year. That's more often than NAVY has. Only Army (92.41%) and Air Force (84.29%) have been more run heavy. Harbaugh's strategy has never wavered, even when how effective it can be against better opponents. But you give him this running attack, against a MAC team. He is going to go full throttle with the power run game and grind the Huskies into the ground.

MICHIGAN 42, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 17

Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-1, 1-1) at Colorado Buffalos (1-1)

1:00 - Boulder, CO - P12

It's a shame this game is buried on the Pac 12 Network, this is my kind of game. A lot of defense, teams that want to run the ball, real grass, and one of my favorite settings to watch a game. Considering that isn't exactly the "wide appeal" kind of thing, maybe it does actually make sense. The Gophers have to figure out a way to solve a Colorado defense which has allowed just 17 points through two games. After seeing the Ohio State defense last week, the performance in the opener is suddenly more concerning, however they didn't seem to miss a beat without Mo Ibrahim last week. So the good news there is that it might be just that the line is that good. And, while the takes on Tanner Morgan are certainly "divided", I think I can comfortably say he is the best quarterback the Buffs have faced, considering they played FCS Northern Colorado (granted they do have Michigan transfer Dylan McCaffrey), and then a Texas A&M team that started with a true freshman, who was then injured, and their backup looked lousy. Colorado's offense has looked iffy, but Minnesota's defense has been downright awful. They are the worst scoring offense in the Big Ten, and have yet to record a sack through two games. Yes, one of those games was against Ohio State, but the other was against Miami(Ohio), who was held to one offensive touchdown, in garbage time, down 42-0 with 3 minutes left against Cincinnati. This feels like a game where home field makes the difference, if it were in Minneapolis, I'd pick the Gophers. It's not, so I won't.

COLORADO 27, MINNESOTA 23

Northwestern Wildcats (0-1, 1-1) at Duke Blue Devils (1-1)

4:00 - Durham, NC - ACCN

The Wildcats and Blue Devils renew a series that makes a lot of sense, following a two year gap. Duke won the last two matchups, in 2017 and 2018, the end of a 4 year stretch of playing every year. Both schools have had their ups and downs over the past decade, with similar profiles, including surprising appearances in conference title games. Considering both teams lost their opener, before coming back and defeating an FCS opponent, the winner here does at least keep bowl hopes alive, considering Northwestern plays Ohio next week and Duke plays Kansas, putting 3-1 very much on the table. However, the loser enters must win territory next week. Hunter Johnson has a chance to put together a nice game against a Duke passing defense that got absolutely shredded in their season opening loss to Charlotte to the tune of 324 yards. Hunter Johnson put up decent numbers against Michigan State, but Northwestern had five plays of 25 or more yards, including three of at least 45 yards. While five explosive plays is nothing to sneeze at, the majority of the game, followed by his performance against Indiana State, considering what we had already seen, did not instill confidence. Duke has a chance to take control on the ground, featuring Mataeo Durant, who is second nationally in all purpose yards, and leading in rushing touchdowns. Northwestern's defense had no answers for the Spartans running game, but they held Indiana State to just 1.4 ypc. Is this Northwestern defense as good as the 2020 version? Clearly not, but I think they are better than they showed in their opener. And Evan Hull started to get on track last week, so Hunter Johnson only had to throw 16 passes. If they can keep that up against the ACC's worst run defense, that is a balance that can work.

NORTHWESTERN 28, DUKE 23

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** September 17, 2021, 02:25:13 PM »

ACC matchups in

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 17, 2021, 09:05:45 PM »

All noon games in

utee94 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 17, 2021, 09:33:08 PM »

So I'll be hitting not one but TWO football games tomorrow. It's one of those rare occasions when we can see both Texas and A&M play on the same day.

So we'll be hitting College Station, TX to see the ags play New Mexico tomorrow at 11 AM Central, and then headed back to Austin to see the Horns play Rice at 7 PM.

Best thing is, we got free tickets from friends/family for both games. The tickets for the A&M game are actually in a luxury suite.

Gonna be a good day, yay football!

MarqHusker · « **Reply #4 on:** September 17, 2021, 11:31:09 PM »

Those are fun days. My only college football DH was N at OU then A&M at oSu in '96. That's the time the pokes bought us beers at Eskimo Joe's. Why? ' You guys hung 73 on OU'. That won't happen tomorrow.

Have a good time.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #5 on:** September 18, 2021, 01:31:02 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on September 17, 2021, 09:33:08 PM

So I'll be hitting not one but TWO football games tomorrow. It's one of those rare occasions when we can see both Texas and A&M play on the same day.

So we'll be hitting College Station, TX to see the ags play New Mexico tomorrow at 11 AM Central, and then headed back to Austin to see the Horns play Rice at 7 PM.

Best thing is, we got free tickets from friends/family for both games. The tickets for the A&M game are actually in a luxury suite.

Gonna be a good day, yay football!

These have to be two of the least competitive games in hx that could be attended the same day. But, good for you! I have never done this. Hopefully the luxury suite has a sofa. The day game should be over early, and you want to be well-rested for the night game.

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** September 18, 2021, 09:40:38 AM »

Minnesota game in

847badgerfan · « **Reply #7 on:** September 18, 2021, 09:42:37 AM »

Don't bother with a Wisconsin write up.

Temp430 · « **Reply #8 on:** September 18, 2021, 11:04:21 AM »

I think you see Michigan air the ball out much more today. Mostly because they need to get Cade and his WRs the practice.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #9 on:** September 18, 2021, 12:25:12 PM »

Quote from: Temp430 on September 18, 2021, 11:04:21 AM

I think you see Michigan air the ball out much more today. Mostly because they need to get Cade and his WRs the practice.

LOL. You realize Jim Harbaugh is still the coach and he's heavily involved in the offense? When has Jim Harbaugh EVER "aired the ball out". Oh yeah, never.

Michigan will probably throw 15 passes max today.

Benthere2 · « **Reply #10 on:** September 18, 2021, 06:28:43 PM »

The Gophers got a good defensive scheme and totally dominated the Buffs

utee94 · « **Reply #11 on:** September 19, 2021, 08:40:23 AM »

Quote from: Hawkinole on September 18, 2021, 01:31:02 AM

These have to be two of the least competitive games in hx that could be attended the same day. But, good for you! I have never done this. Hopefully the luxury suite has a sofa. The day game should be over early, and you want to be well-rested for the night game.

Well yeah, that's kind of the way it works. My friends and family aren't skipping Texas-OU or Texas A&M-Alabama and giving me their tickets for free.

Anyway, both teams did what they were supposed to do against overmatched opponents. It was a fun day of football overall.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #12 on:** September 19, 2021, 08:44:54 AM »

PSU beats Auburn hope GeoLion is around no doubt enjoying it.Ninnies 3-0 might give more traction to the JF rumors if this keeps up

Cincydawg · « **Reply #13 on:** September 19, 2021, 11:29:56 AM »

Quote from: Temp430 on September 18, 2021, 11:04:21 AM

I think you see Michigan air the ball out much more today. Mostly because they need to get Cade and his WRs the practice.

12 for 17 for 203 yards, I don't think they needed much.

NIU beat Georgia Tech who stayed within one score of Clemson.

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Topic: ELA September 18 Breakdown

ELA

ELA September 18 Breakdown

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