Author
Topic: ELA September 17 Breakdown
(Read 1863 times)

ELA · « **on:** September 13, 2022, 01:35:02 PM »

Connecticut Huskies (1-2) at #4 Michigan Wolverines (2-0)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

I think everyone, include Cade McNamera, based on his Colorado State postgame comments, knew he had to substantially outplay J.J. McCarthy, to retain the starting job after this two game split. Well, he didn't do that, and instead, McCarthy looked like the clearly better option. From a roster management standpoint, how the two fared against Hawaii made things easier, and he had to know from a locker room management standpoint, there was really no easy choice. UConn is certainly not a good team, but I don't think they are the completely inept unit we saw the past couple of seasons. They handled FCS Central Connecticut State, were winning at Utah State for a while, before playing a decent Syracuse team. That might not sound like much, but considering just how horrible the Huskies were a year ago, it's not nothing. UConn has the ability to run the ball, and stop the run...at least against teams that aren't competing for a CFP birth. They are averaging over 200 ypg on the ground, and over the past two weeks, are only giving up about 105 rushing ypg. I think Michigan might be a tad bit better in the trenches than Central Connecticut State or Syracuse. And the passing game, both offense and defense, is a disaster. They did complete 84% of their passes last week, 16-19, but for just 105 yards, a nearly impossible 6.56 ypc. And the defense let Garrett Shrader complete 20 of 23 for 292 yards, and 12.7 ypa. They were giving up roughly twice as many yards per attempt as they gained themselves. The Huskies might become a serviceable team under Jim Mora Jr., they are clearly playing hard for him, but for a team that wants to control clock, and run the ball, playing any Power 5 team right now, let alone a top end one, is a terrible matchup.

MICHIGAN 54, CONNECTICUT 3

#6 Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-1, 1-2)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - FOX

Well this sure as hell isn't what we wanted. The first Oklahoma-Nebraska home and home series since 2008-2009, and while Nebraska made it a game last year, it featured arguably the worst back to back Cornhusker teams in two generations. 8 wins over 2016-2017 was the program's worst two year stretch since Bill Jennings had 7 in 1960 and 1961. Nebraska needs to go 4-5 the rest of the way to match that. In fairness, Scott Frost started at Nebraska when Oklahoma was at rock bottom. His Huskers beat a pair of Oklahoma teams that went 7-16, by a combined score of 142-28, over his two years as starter in 1996 and 1997. My how the turntables. The Sooners' offense doesn't look quite the same without Lincoln Riley (and, in fairness, Caleb Williams), but Brent Venables has the defense rolling. It seems like Jeff Lebby finally figured out his running back situation, and Eric Gray and Marcus Major feel like a solid 1-2 punch going forward. I think Jovantae Barnes' time is up, because Gray and Major combined for 15 carries and 109 yards, for 7.3 ypc. Barnes might be the future back there, but he can't be the 1b, while averaging 2.3 ypc, against a bad MAC team, like Kent State. The Sooner defense is being bolsted by sophomore linebacker Danny Stusman. Stutsman was an overlooked, low 3* recruit, whose only other Power 5 offers were Baylor and Kansas State, the second lowest rated recruit in the Sooners' class. But he's #7 in the nation in tackles, giving me strong Rocky Calmus out of nowhere vibes. Last year, as the Texas starter, Casey Thompson threw for 388 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions, in the Red River Shootout. He'll have to do that again to give the Huskers a chance, but remember, even doing that a year ago, Texas lost

OKLAHOMA 42, NEBRASKA 21

Purdue Boilermakers (0-1, 1-1) at Syracuse Boilermakers (2-0)

NOON - Syracuse, NY - espn2

As fun as any OOC game between Power 5 teams is, this sure would have been a lot more fun around the turn of the century, to see Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb go after it. These teams did meet in 2004, their only prior meeting, but Purdue was peaking, and Syracuse was past theirs. The Boilermakers handled the Orange (maybe still the Orangemen then?) 51-0. Syracuse, early in the Dino Babers tenure, was successful once, but overall too reliant on the pass. Then, after a couple of down years, found a workhorse back in Sean Tucker in 2021. Maybe they've figured out a balance, with Tucker still the focal point, but Garrett Shrader being hyper-efficient, completing nearly 80% of his passes overall, at nearly 13 ypa last week, and 5 touchdowns. Sean Clifford figured out something against the Boilermaker secondary late, and that's the game film Syracuse needs to use. But the Syracuse defense hasn't seen a quarterback like this. Malik Cunningham is certainly a threat, but Syracuse dropped heavy, and bet that Cunningham couldn't throw into tight windows, and wouldn't be able to beat them consistently with his legs. Against UConn, they gave the Huskies everything underneath, and let their defensive backs make plays. They did, because they could out athlete them, even allowing 85% completions, for just 109 yards. Against Purdue, Aidan O'Connell will hit those tight windows if you don't pressure him, and if you trust the Syracuse DBs to make plays in space against the Purdue weapons, as inexperienced as they are, that's a losing bet. Even if Broc Thompson isn't 100% yet.

PURDUE 27, SYRACUSE 24

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-0, 2-0)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - BTN

Indiana went to Bowling Green last year, and held off the dangerous Hilltopper offense 33-31. At the time it seemed like a trap avoided against a dangerous Group of Five team, for a team looking to repeat their 2020 success. Instead, Indiana lost their remaining 8 games, and that win over Western Kentucky was their only FBS win on the season. Western Kentucky was who they thought they were though, at least offensively. They lost at Michigan State the following week, but going otherwise undefeated save a pair of one score losses to Conference USA champion UTSA, and scoring at least 42 points in every game but one, including a 59-38 thumping of Appalachian State in their bowl game. Tyson Helton's offense was so good, that both of his co-coordinators got poached. Zach Kittley by Texas Tech, and Bryan Ellis by the Georgia Southern team that just put up 45 on the Blackshirts. He also has to replace quarterback Bailey Zappe, who was taken by the Patriots in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. Austin Reed has seemingly picked up right where Zappe left off, although throwing on the Hawaii and Austin Peay defense doesn't really prove anything. The West Florida transfer did lead his team to the Division II national championship in 2019, so the winning pedigree is there. Even with that, shutting down this offense doesn't really happen, so even slowing them down somewhat will require Indiana's offense to do something. While they are 2-0, their offense squandered great field position over and over, before finally putting together one drive to beat Illinois; and then they got shut out by Idaho in the first half last week. They did break out for 28 points in the third quarter, so have they figured something out? The running game needs to continue what they showed in that second half against the Vandals, because they got absolutely nothing going on the ground against Illinois, and while Connor Bazelak can get you down the field, he's not going to make plays under fire. This game goes as the Hoosier run game goes. If they run the ball, they win. I'm not sure they will.

WESTERN KENTUCKY 31, INDIANA 28

Southern Illinois Salukis (0-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-1)

NOON - Evanston, IL - BTN

NORTHWESTERN 41, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 24

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-0) at Temple Owls (1-1)

2:00 - Philadelphia, PA - ESPN+

Already owning a road win at Boston College, if the Scarlet Knights can also win in Philly, it would put Rutgers in great position to win the 2003 Big East title. Adding to a road win at Syracuse last year, Rutgers seems to be having better luck now against their old Big East foes than they ever did when in the Big East. More importantly, it would give Rutgers a 3-0 start, for the second straight season, something they've only done one other time in the past four decades. The Temple offense has been miserable in their first two games, ranking in the bottom 10 of the FBS in scoring offense, total offense, and turnovers. Rutgers' defense has been solid thus far, but against Boston College and Wagner, not much can be gleaned. Temple's offense won't teach us much, so we'll have to wait until next week, when Rutgers opens Big Ten play against...oh, Iowa, never mind. You can tell Schiano's impact is starting to be felt in the trenches, as Rutgers always had a weapon or two, but struggled on the lines at at quarterback. Through two games it seems as though Rutgers has the best offensive line they've fielded in their Big Ten tenure. Quarterback is another story. Gavin Wimsatt graduated early, and got some reps last year, when he was supposed to be in high school. He was Rutgers' highest rated quarterback recruit in 15 years. But through two games, he has been pretty rough, completing just 45% of his passes, at 5.5 ypa, and a pair of interceptions on just 20 attempts. His QBR is 2nd worst in the conference. Evan Simon has been the better option, but it feels like Schiano wants Wimsatt to work his way through this, as he gives the offense the higher ceiling. Fortunately the other quarterback is Dwan Mathis, the one time Iowa State commit, who flipped to Michigan State, then to Ohio State, then to Georgia, before transferring to Temple, is dead last in the FCS in QBR.

RUTGERS 28, TEMPLE 13

Colorado Buffaloes (0-2) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0)

3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - espn2

Colorado is fighting Nebraska to see who can be more responsible for making everyone forget just how epic their Big 8 battles in the 80s and 90s were, particularly during the down Oklahoma years, when they played a de facto conference title game seemingly every year. Just how hard the Buffs have fallen were part of an Athletic article over the summer, and now an ESPN article just this week. Yes, Colorado is struggling to keep up with spending. Can they get back to their peak? Probably not. But that doesn't explain away getting blown out by Air Force, in a game where they were outgained 443-162. The Falcons completed just 1 pass, but only attempted 5. J.T. Shrout, Colorado's starter, only completed 4 more, but he threw the ball 21 times. Air Force ran the ball 70 times for 435 yards, 6.2 ypc. Five different players averaged over 7.0 ypc. The offensive struggles are not a one year thing, as Colorado had the 2nd least efficient offense in the FBS a year ago, one that Minnesota took advantage of in shutting out, while limiting to just 63 yards. It was so bad that Karl Dorrell brought in Mike Sanford Jr., who Minnesota just fired for generating a bottom 30 offense just a year ago. But if the defense is truly this bad, uh oh. They returned 4 players from a front seven that was at least a middling Pac 12 defense in terms of limiting scoring and rushing. Somehow they have hopelessly regressed, to where they are last in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game, by over 80 ypg, and 2nd worst, ahead of only Hawaii, in terms of ypc allowed. As long as the Gophers are focused, this shouldn't be an issue. Problem is, under Fleck, that has too often been the issue. Last year they gave Ohio State all kinds of issues in the season opener, and followed it by getting outgained by Miami(Ohio), and needing a +2 turnover margin to win by 5. After a dominating shutout of Colorado, they turned around and lost to Bowling Green. A 4 game winning streak to take control of the Big Ten West, was followed by scoring just 6 points in a home loss to Illinois. As long as Minnesota avoids a Fleck gag game, this should be easy.

MINNESOTA 42, COLORADO 10

New Mexico State Aggies (0-3) at Wisconsin Badgers (1-1)

3:30 - Madison, WI - BTN

Should be weird vibes in Madison on Saturday, as a lackluster opponent, following a disappointing result seems to be when college football crowds are at their dullest. Bucky only allowed 17 points last week, which is normally more than enough against a Washington State team that is typically defensively impaired. The last time the Cougars scored 17 or fewer points in a win was September 7, 2013, in a 10-7 win over USC. I'm not sure how solid this Washington State offense is, but I promise you it's a whole lot better than New Mexico State's, so I expect Wisconsin to lay the hammer again on a dismal New Mexico State offense, which was shut out by Minnesota two weeks ago, and has put up a COMBINED 25 points against Nevada and UTEP in their other two games. Their Offensive SP+ of 9.7 is not only the worst in the FBS, it would be the worst offense since 2019, and the third worst of the past decade. They are also averaging just 53.3 plays per game, down 25 plays from last year. I guess Jerry Kill figures the less he has to watch that unit perform, the better. Graham Mertz hasn't lit the world on fire, but he has had two solid games, and has been far from the problem. The running game something that you can always take for granted with Wisconsin, has struggled. Braelon Allen's overall numbers look good, but mainly because he had one 96 yard run against FCS Illinois State. Otherwise he has 34 carries for 150 yards (4.4 ypc) against two fairly bad defenses. And the other backs have been worse. Football Outsiders doesn't begin publishing their offensive line ratings until after next week, but I'd be surprised to see the Badgers anywhere near their normal position. With a game against Ohio State looming next weekend, you could see Paul Chryst taking his foot off the gas, but after the debacle last week, I think he is going to want to see a lot more, particularly out of his running game, going into Wisconsin's toughest test of the season.

WISCONSIN 49, NEW MEXICO STATE 3

Toledo Rockets (2-0) at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)

7:00 - Columbus, OH - FOX

Ohio State would do well to not wait until deep into the game to get their offense cranked up. They trailed until late in the third against what appears to be a very mediocre Notre Dame team, and let Arkansas State hang around for probably a little longer than they should have last week. Fortunately C.J. Stroud rediscovered the big play, after dinking and dunking his way against Notre Dame. All 4 of Stroud's touchdown passes, three of which went to Marvin Harrison Jr., were from 30+ years out. I'd still like to see TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams get more than 18 combined carries. Particularly this week, against a fairly stout Toledo Rockets defense. Returning eight starters, including five All-MAC performers from the conference's second best unit, including five of the front six in their 3-3-5 scheme, makes this unsurprising. What is surprising is just how much better Ohio State's linebackers look. A year ago, even in games Ohio State won on pure talent, that group looked completely lost on the field. And when the talent was more equal, like against Oregon and Michigan, they didn't stand a chance. Through two games, yes, the numbers back it up, but you can tell just from watching, what an impact new defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Jim Knowles has made. It's early, but that looks like an absolute home run hire. That revamped run defense now faces a Toledo rushing attack that ranks top ten in the nation at 6.3 ypc. The Rockets have knocked off ten Power 5 teams this century, including four Big Ten teams (2000 Penn State, 2001 Minnesota, 2008 Michigan, and 2010 Purdue), but none since a pair (Arkansas and Iowa State) in 2015. I would like to see the Buckeyes really get that running game going, whether or not Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 100%

OHIO STATE 41, TOLEDO 10

#11 Michigan State Spartans (2-0) at Washington Huskies (2-0)

7:30 - Seattle, WA - ABC

Two games in, and the vibes around Washington football have flipped in a hurry. The Husky program needed to revitalize a dead offense, and brought in new head coach Kalen DoBoer and Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr., to do just that. While Penix spent 4 years in the Spartans' division, he hasn't seen a whole lot of them. In 2018, he didn't get tabbed until after the teams had already played, and in 2021 he was already injured by that point. But in the two years in between, he tortured them. Indiana split the games, but the Hoosiers put up 31 points both times, and Penix was a combined 58-80 for 606 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Through two games against overmatched opponents in 2022, he's off to an explosive start, completing 70% of his passes, for 340 ypg, 6 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Throw in the fact that these September Pac 12 road games seemingly always give Big Ten teams trouble, and you've got an issue. Michigan State's last road win at a Pac 12 school, wasn't even a Pac 12 school then, because there was no Pac 12. It was a 1984 win at Colorado. Otherwise it was a 1957 win over a 1-9 PCC team in California. Since that win they are a combined 0-12, including a loss in their lone road game in Seattle, 42-16 in 1970. But...lets not forget how much this Washington team struggled last year, and wins over Portland State and Kent State don't magically erase that, nor does a 1970 game have any impact. After opening 2021 ranked #20, the Huskies opened with a 13-7 loss to FCS Montana, got blasted by Michigan, and wound up 4-8, firing Jimmy Lake midway through the season. They still haven't defeated a bowl team since 2019, so they still have prove it mode. Michigan State wants to prove that their pass rush can hold up against stiffer competition. They lead the nation with 12 sacks through 2 games, led by UNLV transfer Jacoby Windmon who leads the nation in both sacks (5.5) and forced fumbles (4). I think Washington is on the right track, and Penix has sped up their timeline, but the offense is still lacking enough weapons around him. Granted, if Jayden Reed can't go for Michigan State, his status is still up in the air, then the Spartan passing attack looks to be shaky as well. Payton Thorne has had three straight iffy outings, dating back to the Peach Bowl last season.

MICHIGAN STATE 31, WASHINGTON 26

SMU Mustangs (2-0) at Maryland Terrapins (2-0)

7:30 - College Park, MD - FS1

Could this game be all sorts of fireworks? Absolutely. Both schools have featured potent offense, and questionable defense in recent years. However, while the competition has been soft, both teams have played better than expected defense. The Over/Under is set at 73.5, and I like the Under, although I hate betting unders, because it leads to a miserable viewing experience. Maryland put up over 600 yards of offense on Charlotte last week, but the 49ers have also given up 40+ points to Florida Atlantic and William & Mary, so I'm not really sure what that means. I'd like to see Maryland develop more offensive balance. They are running for over 6 yards per clip, but they are only running the ball 39% of the time, despite two blowout wins, where the latest they were in a one score game was 12:14 left in the second quarter. The passing numbers Maryland gave up last week were fairly misleading. Yes Charlotte threw for nearly 300 yards, but a lot came against Maryland's backups, playing a prevent defense for a good chunk of the second half. But Tanner Mordecai is substantially better than anyone Charlotte has on their roster, currently #11 in opponent adjusted QBR, slotting right between Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. If there is an X factor, it might be turnovers. On one hand Maryland has only turned the ball over twice, while SMU has turned it over 5 times, including three fumbles. But the Terp defense has yet to create a turnover, while SMU has created 5 themselves. So Maryland's two games have seen a total of 2 turnovers, while SMU's have been chaos, with 10. SMU needs to create that chaos again to have a shot, and Taulia has shown to be susceptible to turnover issues. Remember last year the season went downhill after a 4-0 start, beginning with a 7 turnover blowout loss to Iowa, including 5 Tagovailoa interceptions. But Iowa is a different animal. While some SMU risks may pay off, I think Maryland will also be able to exploit their aggressiveness.

MARYLAND 31, SMU 27

Nevada Wolfpack (2-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (1-1)

7:30 - Iowa City, IA - BTN

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#22 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 2-0) at Auburn Tigers (2-0)

3:30 - Auburn, AL - CBS

This is what Auburn ran off Bo Nix for? T.J. Finley has been, I guess, efficient, but he's also thrown 3 picks in just 34 attempts, against Mercer and San Jose State. Is Robby Ashford the answer? On 23 combined running and passing plays, Ashford is averaging 10 ypp, 10.1 through the air, and 9.9 on the ground. But he's also only completed 5 of 10 passes, including a pick. For now, Finley is the safer pick, particularly if Tank Bigsby keeps running the ball like this, 6.8 ypc, with 3 touchdowns. He's got friends, with Jarquez Hunter's nose for the end zone (4 TDs on 16 carries), and Damari Alston's 7.8 ypc. Freshman Nick Singleton provided hope that for the first time since the Penn State running back room got decimated by injuries to start the 2020 season, the Nittany Lions could be effective on the ground. Granted Ohio isn't Auburn, but putting too much on the shoulders of Sean Clifford the past two has hampered this offense. That Ohio defense is ranked #114, allowing 5.5 ypc, the Tigers are in the top 10 in both ypg and ypc allowed, giving up under 2 ypc. Again, against Mercer and San Jose State, but Auburn did shut down Penn State on the ground last year in Happy Valley. The problem was the pass defense, allowing Penn State to complete 29-33 passes for over 300 yards. Penn State escaped in Week 1 in a tough environment in Ross-Ade, so Jordan Hare shouldn't catch them completely off guard. Although, I think SEC fans would be appalled to hear an SEC stadium compared to Purdue in terms of hostility. I think that, and having a 6th year quarterback, will be just enough.

PENN STATE 28, AUBURN 26

Abba · « **Reply #1 on:** September 13, 2022, 01:55:42 PM »

UConn is another very bad team. They lost to Utah State as mentioned, who just lost to FCS Weber State 35-7.

SP+ is not very accurate yet this early in the season, but their FBS rankings have:

114) Colorado State
126) UConn
128) Hawaii

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 13, 2022, 02:07:12 PM »

Quote from: Abba on September 13, 2022, 01:55:42 PM

They lost to Utah State as mentioned, who just lost to FCS Weber State 35-7.

Yikes, missed that. They were really (Go5) good last year

Temp430 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 13, 2022, 06:17:12 PM »

I was thinking UConn was a very old rusty tomato can. So, I’ll add 30 to your forecast.

Connecticut 3
Michigan. 84

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #4 on:** September 13, 2022, 07:49:56 PM »

The Wolverines have a major step up in competition this week facing the 17th worst team, after facing the bottom two right out of the gate.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-rankings-colorado-sinks-in-the-bottom-25-after-blowout-loss-to-air-force/

Mdot21 · « **Reply #5 on:** September 13, 2022, 08:54:04 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 13, 2022, 07:49:56 PM

The Wolverines have a major step up in competition this week facing the 17th worst team, after facing the bottom two right out of the gate.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-rankings-colorado-sinks-in-the-bottom-25-after-blowout-loss-to-air-force/

kinda weird how Cade looked like complete dogshit vs the two worst teams in the nation while JJ looked like a superstar....

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** September 14, 2022, 03:17:26 PM »

Noon games in

847badgerfan · « **Reply #7 on:** September 14, 2022, 04:48:28 PM »

Won't offend me in the slightest if you skip the Badgers this week.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #8 on:** September 16, 2022, 12:16:08 PM »

This weekend's B1G games ranked by point spread (smallest to largest). I'm thinking this is a rough proxy for how competitive/interesting each game should be:

Purdue +2 at Syracuse
Maryland -2.5 vs SMU
Penn State -3 at Auburn
Michigan State +3.5 at Washington
Indiana -6.5 vs WKY
Nebraska +11 vs Oklahoma
Rutgers -18 at Temple
Iowa -24 vs Nevada
Minnesota -28 vs Colorado
Ohio State -32 vs Toledo
Wisconsin -37.5 vs NMST
Michigan-47.5 vs UCONN

There is no spread for NU because their opponent is FCS and Illinois is off.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #9 on:** September 16, 2022, 01:37:09 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 16, 2022, 12:16:08 PM

This weekend's B1G games ranked by point spread (smallest to largest). I'm thinking this is a rough proxy for how competitive/interesting each game should be:

Purdue +2 at Syracuse
Maryland -2.5 vs SMU
Penn State -3 at Auburn
Michigan State +3.5 at Washington
Indiana -6.5 vs WKY
Nebraska +11 vs Oklahoma
Rutgers -18 at Temple
Iowa -24 vs Nevada
Minnesota -28 vs Colorado
Ohio State -32 vs Toledo
Wisconsin -37.5 vs NMST
Michigan-47.5 vs UCONN

There is no spread for NU because their opponent is FCS and Illinois is off.

You do realize- or at least suspect I hope- that the spread for OSU/Toledo is too high, right?
They would probably have the 4th or 5th best d- line in the Big right now. You know their leading tackler is our very own 4 star Buckeye recruit Dallas Gant- who had offers from everyone. I believe the have 16 transfers from power 5 schools. This is No Hawaii.

Abba · « **Reply #10 on:** September 16, 2022, 01:50:19 PM »

If I had to rank the opponents this week:

1) Oklahoma

2) Washington

3) Auburn

4) Syracuse

5) SMU

6) Toledo

7) Western Kentucky

Now it gets bad...you could probably arrange these in any order.

8) Temple
9) Colorado
10) UConn
11) Nevada
12) New Mexico State

847badgerfan · « **Reply #11 on:** September 16, 2022, 01:54:09 PM »

UConn is probably the worst.

At least NMSU has a good coach. And, he has experience losing to Wisconsin so that's nice.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #12 on:** September 16, 2022, 02:05:09 PM »

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on September 16, 2022, 01:37:09 PM

You do realize- or at least suspect I hope- that the spread for OSU/Toledo is too high, right?
They would probably have the 4th or 5th best d- line in the Big right now. You know their leading tackler is our very own 4 star Buckeye recruit Dallas Gant- who had offers from everyone. I believe the have 16 transfers from power 5 schools. This is No Hawaii.

I realize all of that about Toledo. In the post below yours, @Abba ranked this week's B1G opponents and he has Toledo at #6. I might even go further. The Rockets might be better than his #4 and #5 (Syracuse and SMU).

That said, in addition to B1G opponents not all being equal, B1G teams themselves are not all equal either. Toledo may well be the best team in the MAC. Three years ago the Buckeyes played the team that won the MAC that year and beat them by more than twice the spread of tomorrow's game against the Rockets.

The latest I saw was that JSN and Fleming are expected to be in the lineup tomorrow. Knowles' D has looked pretty good and if the offense is at full strength for the first time this year, that spread isn't insanely high IMHO.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #13 on:** September 16, 2022, 02:16:05 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 16, 2022, 02:05:09 PM

I realize all of that about Toledo. In the post below yours, @Abba ranked this week's B1G opponents and he has Toledo at #6. I might even go further. The Rockets might be better than his #4 and #5 (Syracuse and SMU).

That said, in addition to B1G opponents not all being equal, B1G teams themselves are not all equal either. Toledo may well be the best team in the MAC. Three years ago the Buckeyes played the team that won the MAC that year and beat them by more than twice the spread of tomorrow's game against the Rockets.

The latest I saw was that JSN and Fleming are expected to be in the lineup tomorrow. Knowles' D has looked pretty good and if the offense is at full strength for the first time this year, that spread isn't insanely high IMHO.

As I said- The pointspread is simply a way of balancing perceived betting trends. That’s why it moves constantly depending on which side of the house is taking in more bets. It literally has nothing to do with reality.

I also believe that the odds makers, and most fans, have not figured out that they need to bake in the transfer portal effect to expectations these days. Three years ago it was not really having much of an effect.
I see this more like a 33 to 17 type of game and that would meet my expectations. Anything better than that would obviously exceed my expectations. And by the way, when the conference schedule starts, you can especially throw point spreads out the window. The expectations are that a win in any manner, by any margin, is outstanding

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.

Topic: ELA September 17 Breakdown

ELA

ELA September 17 Breakdown

Abba

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

Temp430

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

Brutus Buckeye

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

Mdot21

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

847badgerfan

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

medinabuckeye1

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

Honestbuckeye

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

Abba

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

847badgerfan

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

medinabuckeye1

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown

Honestbuckeye

Re: ELA September 17 Breakdown