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Topic: ELA October 15 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** October 13, 2022, 01:51:54 PM »

Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-1, 4-1) at #24 Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1, 5-1)

NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN

In most years, you beat Wisconsin and Iowa, you would be in the clear in the West. Problem is this year (1) Wisconsin and Iowa aren't that good; (2) Minnesota and Purdue find themselves in the discussion; and (3) you lost your opener at Indiana. But to show you how rare that feat is for the Illini, their Rose Bowl team couldn't do it, their 1990 Big Ten title team couldn't do it. They lost in Iowa City. The last time they did it was 1989. In fairness, the 2001 Big Ten title team didn't play Iowa, but still. While this week is an 11 AM local kickoff, rather than prime time, you could still argue this is the biggest game the Illini have played since 2011, when a 6-0 Illinois team welcomed Ohio State. Illinois lost, and it kicked off a 6 game losing streak. That was the last time Illinois found themselves ranked. That team needed to outscore their opponents. This Illini team is built exactly the opposite. Indiana somehow scored 23 points on them, but they have allowed 5.0 ppg otherwise, with Wisconsin's 10 being the high. The Illini are 3rd in the nation in run defense per game, and 4th per play, but they've gotten better as the season has rolled on. Over their past three games, which includes their two toughest opponents, they lead the nation, comfortably, in both statistics. Minnesota's loss to Purdue happened in a game when they couldn't run the ball, or stop the run. Purdue's run defense isn't in the same area code as Illinois' and Purdue has consistently had the conference's worst run game since Brohm arrived. Yet the Boilermakers held Minnesota to 47 yards on 1.8 ypc, while running for 5.9 ypc themselves. Tanner Morgan also showed that he is who we thought he was, when not facing Michigan State's secondary. If Illinois controls the run game, on both sides of the ball, as well as Purdue did, and I suspect they will do so even more convincingly, then that's the kind of fight I trust the Illini more in.

ILLINOIS 21, MINNESOTA 14

Maryland Terrapins (1-2, 4-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-2, 3-3)

3:30 - Bloomington, IN - espn2

Last week was a tough pill the swallow for the Terps, but the ultimate test of whether this is a different team, or the same old Maryland which plays great in September, then collapses at the first sign of adversity is how they bounce back, on the road, against a team they should beat. This isn't a total must win for Maryland's bowl hopes, they still have Northwestern and Rutgers, but with their other three being against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State, all in a row, it would likely remove any room for error. And it might let that narrative about the fragile mental state of this team, return. Where this Maryland team is different, is that its front will get after you. Even while the Hoosiers hung with Michigan for longer than expected last Saturday, it never really felt like they had a chance, absent a major turnover or special teams play. Because the Hoosier offensive line never gave Connor Bazelak a chance. Michigan was in the backfield on every play, frequently only bringing four. Typically, you could maybe relax with Maryland coming in, but the Terps aren't far behind, ranking third in the Big Ten in sack rate. For a Hoosier line which has allowed the most sacks in the conference, it has all the makings of another long afternoon for those five. Former Northern Illinois and Temple head coach, and former Indiana offensive lineman, Rod Carey, who had spent his entire 13 year assistant tenure as an offensive line coach, was promoted from analyst to offensive line coach. It is nice they had such a qualified member on staff, but I do wonder what he can do in just 6 days. As the offensive line has collapsed, so has the entire offense, ranking in the bottom 4 of the FBS in ypp, conversion rate, and rushing yards. Indiana came from behind in each of their 3 wins to open the year, twice scoring in the final minute. They didn't score a single point in the second half of either of their last two games.

MARYLAND 30, INDIANA 21

Wisconsin Badgers (1-2, 3-3) at Michigan State Spartans (0-3, 2-4)

4:00 - East Lansing, MI - FOX

Remembering the run where these schools were battling for control of the conference, and then how long they spent as reliable 8 win teams, how far both have fallen, this quickly, is surprising. Granted it's only a 3 game sample size, but the fact that they rank #13 and #14 in scoring defense in the conference is a big part of the problem. Both are already looking to the future, in different ways. Michigan State invested heavily in a head coach, not based on what he had done, but on the talent he was bringing in. Wisconsin quit on their 2022 roster, with hopes of salvaging something better for the future. The jury is still out on both decisions. The season appears lost for Michigan State, but as long as the recruiting class stays in place, the investment might still work out. The first game of Jim Leonhard's head coaching career was also strong, but Northwestern is the lowest ranked Big Ten team I can find in the Massey composite. They are #115. #117 is a Western Michigan team that Michigan State blew out. So take away the Power 5 status, and that Northwestern win is an bad as any FBS win. They are ranked one spot below a 3-4 UConn team. Both teams have underwhelmed on the offensive lines. While Wisconsin's is perhaps more surprising, I think there is more room for them to fix the situation. Kenneth Walker III made this offensive line, which was severely under talented last year, look a lot better, with better vision than I can recall seeing out of a college back. That has flipped 180 degrees, and the main backs this year, Berger and Broussard, have well below acceptable. That has made it how obvious the OL deficiencies are for Michigan State. Wisconsin is too weak on the outside to beat more talented teams, but MSU couldn't beat Maryland or Minnesota in a phone booth.

WISCONSIN 26, MICHIGAN STATE 24

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-1, 3-3) at Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, 4-2)

7:30 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

Nebraska handles the basement of the Big Ten East, and have put themselves back in contention for a bowl bid. Yet...that loss to Northwestern looks worse by the week. The Massey composite scores go back to 2002, and Northwestern is the lowest rated Big Ten team in that 20 year period. Georgia Southern is a 3-3 Sun Belt team. And that Oklahoma defense that held Nebraska to 7 points hasn't stopped anyone since. It's tough to say if Nebraska has actually turned a corner, or if they are a product of their schedule, because the three losses to open the year actually look FAR WORSE than they did at the time. Purdue appears to be the polar opposite. Those late game chokes certainly hurt, but Penn State might be the second best team in the Big Ten, and Syracuse is having a nice bounceback season, finding themselves ranked. This is certainly a test of whether Nebraska's defense has figured things out. After rocky starts, they shut out both Indiana and Rutgers after halftime. Indiana fired their OL coach, and Rutgers fired their OC. If Nebraska makes it a third week in a row with the defense looking solid, I'm ready to buy in. The more concerning side of the ball is the offense. They looked ok against Indiana, but the fact hat they scored just 7 points on Oklahoma, coming on their opening drive, looks worse and worse by the week. They beat Rutgers by scoring 14 points. Purdue is surprisingly stout against the run, and Nebraska hasn't been running the ball at all, even while winning. The Boilermakers beat a better Minnesota team, on the road, by double digits, by controlling the run game without extra defenders, and using those extra defenders to trick Tanner Morgan. This is a much easier assignment. I think Nebraska's defense is for real. But Purdue's offense looks more balances than it ever has been under Brohm, and apparently you just need to be an active Power 5 defense to stop the Cornhusker offense.

PURDUE 37, NEBRASKA 14

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** October 13, 2022, 02:22:48 PM »

This weekend's games by Power ranking:

#2 M vs #3 PSU
#4 PU vs #10 UNL
#5 IL vs #6 MN
#7 UMD at #12 IU
#9 UW at #11 MSU
#1 tOSU, #8 Iowa, #13 RU, and #14 NU are off this week.

This should be a really competitive slate of games. I could see either team winning in each of the five games.

GopherRock · « **Reply #2 on:** October 13, 2022, 03:16:37 PM »

Throw out the one long run at the end, and Purdue's rushing average drops to 3.5 YPC. Still not good but that stat is out of whack.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #3 on:** October 14, 2022, 10:41:14 AM »

Just ruminating but what if Tennessee beats Bama this week? And for the sake of CFB & Drew I hope it comes to that. Michigan prolly wins @ Home but would that be enough to supplant the Tide from the top 4?This would be a great scenerio as UCLA/USC are bringing it out west. Would Clemson's weak schedule even get them consideration?The mad scramble for the CFP just may turn maddening

. But let's just enjoy our week ends for the time being

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** October 14, 2022, 06:02:45 PM »

Afternoon games in

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** October 14, 2022, 06:32:34 PM »

Night game in

MrNubbz · « **Reply #6 on:** October 15, 2022, 07:40:21 PM »

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 14, 2022, 10:41:14 AM

Just ruminating but what if Tennessee beats Bama this week? And for the sake of CFB & Drew I hope it comes to that. Michigan prolly wins @ Home but would that be enough to supplant the Tide from the top 4?This would be a great scenerio as UCLA/USC are bringing it out west. Would Clemson's weak schedule even get them consideration?The mad scramble for the CFP just may turn maddening . But let's just enjoy our week ends for the time being

Thank You - I'm here all week

bayareabadger · « **Reply #7 on:** October 15, 2022, 07:44:39 PM »

Wisconsin pass game progress, still an issue

Abba · « **Reply #8 on:** October 15, 2022, 08:04:51 PM »

Tuck comin'

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Topic: ELA October 15 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 15 Breakdown

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GopherRock

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MrNubbz

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ELA

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ELA

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MrNubbz

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