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Topic: ELA October 1 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** September 27, 2022, 06:10:12 PM »

Purdue Boilermakers (0-1, 2-2) at #21 Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-0, 4-0)

NOON - Minneapolis, MN - espn2

I said last week Minnesota could prove something in a loss, while Purdue could prove what they weren't in a win. Purdue did exactly that, while Minnesota did all they could and more in a dominant win. Now the Gophers are looking for their second 5-0 start in the past four years, but also the second time in the past 18 years. The Boilers are darned close to being 4-0, but also their two wins are against a bad FCS team, and a close win over a mediocre FBS team. With Aidan O'Connell returning, giving Purdue the best quarterback outside of Columbus, Boilermaker fans were dreaming of their first West Division Championship. Now, on the first day of October, they face essentially a must win to keep their dream of Indianapolis alive. While the Gophers defense has looked good, they really haven't faced anyone. They've faced an FCS team, arguably the worst FBS team, unarguably the worst Power 5 team, and a Michigan State team that is absolutely reeling. If O'Connell is still injured, I don't think Purdue's offense is any better than Michigan State's considering how one sided they are. A healthy Purdue offense is by far the stiffest challenge the Gophers defense has faced, but I'm not sure they'll see it. The Jeff Brohm offense, as run by Austin Burton looked completely different. The Boilermaker defense is better than Michigan State, but something about Kirk Ciarrocca with P.J. Fleck, just works. I think the 2019 Minnesota offense was a thing of beauty, and while it didn't exactly work in Happy Valley, Minnesota somehow still has essentially their same roster from 3 years ago. Seriously, I did hear that Minnesota has more players who are in their 4th or more year with the same program than any school in the country. And it shows.

MINNESOTA 35, PURDUE 20

Illinois Fighting Illini (0-1, 3-1) at Wisconsin Badgers (0-1, 2-2)

NOON - Madison, WI - BTN

Bret Bielema makes his first appearance in Camp Randall since a 21-14 overtime loss to Ohio State on November 17, 2012. Bielema capped that season by winning Wisconsin's third consecutive Big Ten title, a program first, and to date, Bucky's last Big Ten title. Paul Chryst has now coached the exact same number of games in Madison as Bielema did, and is 67-25, compared to 68-24 for Bielema. So he has essentially had the same amount of overall success, although the conference titles have eluded him. In fairness, one title was a shared title, in the pre-CCG era; one was during Ohio State's one down year between Tressell and Meyer, and the last was when Wisconsin got to go the the CCG despite finishing third in the division, due to Ohio State and Penn State's penalties, and got to play a relatively mediocre 4 loss Nebraska team. Chryst has reached the CCG three times, just hasn't won it, but also hasn't gotten to face a team like 2012 Nebraska. None of that matters. What does matter is just how good Wisconsin's defense is. Ohio State is going to torch a lot of defenses, but the fact that they put up 52 on Wisconsin, 45 in the first three quarters, is fairly concerning. The Buckeyes have had an elite offense ever since Urban Meyer arrived in 2012, and yet those 45 points through 3 quarters is more than they've allowed in a full game against Ohio State during that time, save for the one Big Ten Championship Game. They had never even allowed more than 38 otherwise. It wasn't even C.J. Stroud and his elite group of wideouts that did it, the Buckeyes churned them on the ground. As much of a talent as TreVeyon Henderson is, Chase Brown is quietly perhaps the best college back in the conference. Even in Illinois' loss at Indiana, Brown gained 199 yards on 5.5 ypc, and Illinois outgained the Hoosiers by nearly 100 yards, but turned the ball over 4 times, including 3 fumbles (none of which were Brown's). Wisconsin's running game got things a little bit going last week, although the overall stats are slightly tainted by a meaningless 75 yard touchdown run once Wisconsin was down 40 late. But the Illini have been quite stout against the run. While the Badgers are not the ground game machine they usually are, I still think they are far better than anything Illinois has seen. Illinois' upset win in 2019 is the only time since 2007 that Illinois has stayed within single digits, let alone won, but this also might be Illinois' best team since then too, so the opportunity is there. Both of those games were in Champaign. Illinois hasn't won in Madison since 2002, and while they can do it, they need to play a clean game, and capitalize on the chances Wisconsin gives them. Problem is Wisconsin is top 10 in the nation in takeaways, and Illinois is in the bottom 10 in giveaways. Illinois might outgain Wisconsin, but they won't win.

WISCONSIN 31, ILLINOIS 28

Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-3) at #11 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 4-0)

3:30 - State College, PA - ESPN

Is Northwestern doing their every even year thing where they crap the bed in non-conference, and then win the West? I've said no before, like when they lost at home to Akron, but none of Northwestern's three non-conference losses were any good. Duke? Miami(Ohio)? Southern Illinois? Even when Northwestern has had mediocre offenses, they've always had defenses they could count on. This year, I'm not so sure that's true. They did give up just 17 in their loss to Miami last week, but they gave up 28+ against Nebraska, Duke and Southern Illinois. Offensively, the Wildcats have a decent line, particularly the interior line which salted away the Nebraska win by just running the ball up the middle for the final 12 minutes. Penn State was able to bottle up the Central Michigan run game without bringing much additional pressure, and if they can leave their safeties high, and force Ryan Hilinski to beat them underneath, that is not how Northwestern wants to play. Hilinski has done pretty well pushing the ball down the field, but in their three losses he's completing just 60% of his passes, with 3 touchdowns and 3 picks. Plus 5 sacks, including 3 from FCS Southern Illinois. The Wildcats are putting the ball in the air far more than they are accustomed to, including 60 passes against Duke. The weather might be iffy, with rain, and wind chills in the 40s. Maybe the game can get ugly enough, like how Illinois upset the Nittany Lions last year in a sloppy Happy Valley. Problem is, that might benefit a resurgent Penn State ground attack, more than a pass happy Northwestern offense. Sean Clifford is playing the cleanest ball of his life, perhaps because he has a running game for the first time since 2019, with one bad interception in the opener. An efficient Clifford, and a dynamic run game is way more than enough.

PENN STATE 52, NORTHWESTERN 10

Michigan State Spartans (0-1, 2-2) at Maryland Terrapins (0-1, 3-1)

3:30 - College Park, MD - FS1

Fairly amazing how drastically the fan bases' feeling towards this game swung in the last week. The road loss at Washington could be somewhat written off as what typically happens in those Big Ten west coast trips, and at least Peyton Thorne actually looked like the guy he was in 2021. But after last week, it's clear that all of the defensive issues were completely valid, and the Thorne we saw in Seattle appeared to be the exception, not the rule. He's getting no help from his running game, either from the line, which isn't opening holes, and the backs, who have a troubling lack of vision. Instead he's throwing into 7 man coverages, where the four are still getting pressure. Now Washington and Minnesota have much better defenses than Maryland, but if Minnesota, in their first game without their WR1, could torch this secondary, imagine what Tagovailoa can do, even if if Rakim Jarrett can't go. It's unclear whether he's going to play or not, but it's also clear that it probably doesn't matter. The pass rush is still getting penetration, but against better teams, better quarterbacks, they don't need that much time to get separation against this secondary. Minnesota absolutely destroyed Michigan State on third ground, so perhaps things will look a little better if the Spartans can at least flip that a little bit, and get off the field. But if this run game, against a defense that gave up 243 yards, and 8.1 ypc to Blake Corum and Michigan last week, they aren't going to run on anyone. I do think we see a bit of a bounceback from the Spartan offense, but I don't see how the Spartan defense can hold Maryland to even under 30 points?

MARYLAND 31, MICHIGAN STATE 24

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-1, 3-1) at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 4-0)

3:30 - Columbus, OH - BTN

In their eight years as conference foes, Ohio State has won all eight meetings with the Scarlet Knights. Once, the COVID year, Rutgers managed to stay as close as 22 points. The second closest game was 56-21. As much as we expect Ohio State to always win this game, they seemingly still do it even more impressively than we expect, covering in 6 of those 8 wins. You never want to punt a game in college football, but after this week, the Scarlet Knights host Nebraska and Indiana in their next two games. Any reasonable path to Rutgers' first legitimate bowl bid since 2014 likely involves sweeping those next two games. So while seeing the Ohio State backups up 40+ seems almost certain, would it shock me if Rutgers also decides to stay healthy for a two game stretch that will likely decide their season? Nope. Rutgers actually outgained Iowa 361-277 last week, but was -3 in turnovers, as teams tend to be when playing Iowa. They were able to shut down the Iowa ground game, but Spencer Petras had his best game of the season. He only threw 17 passes, but had season highs in completion percentage, ypa, passer rating, and QBR. In fact his first above average (50) QBR on the season. C.J. Stroud is just second in the nation (behind the very fun Jalon Daniels at Kansas) in QBR, with 16 touchdowns and 1 interception. So good luck with that. There is a chance Noah Vedral makes his 2022 debut, which should give Rutgers' quarterback play a boost. Vedral was lousy down the stretch last year, which is why freshman Gavin Wimsatt was given a shot to win the job with Vedral hurt. He disappointed so much, Schiano just let Evan Simon try to bridge the gap. But Vedral was great in September last year, leading Rutgers to a 3-0 start, before a close loss at Michigan. But starting with a three pick game at Ohio State, he was below average in 8 of Rutgers' 9 games, finishing with 5 consecutive sub 100 yard passing games. I think if they could play the long game with Wimsatt, they would, but Simon isn't the long term answer, which tells me that if the 6th year senior is healthy, Vedral is back under center.

OHIO STATE 45, RUTGERS 13

Indiana Hoosiers (1-0, 3-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-1, 1-3)

7:30 - Lincoln, NE - BTN

Well, here's what we all had in the first year of Scott Frost 2.0. The Cornhuskers playing for nothing more than playing spoilers to Indiana's bowl hopes by the first day of October. That might not be entirely fair, Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan are not exactly the toughest crossover draw, so maybe 5 wins isn't totally out of the question. But, it seems unlikely, particularly as Husker fans spent their week off watch Taylor Martinez carve up the Oklahoma offense in an upset win. But for Indiana, I don't think its hyperbole to say that even at 3-2, finding 3 wins is tough. The two most winnable games left on their schedule are both on the road (at Rutgers and at Michigan State). And Indiana outscored their opponents by an average of 5.3 ppg in regulation in their three wins. Not exactly a murderer's row either, with Illinois, Idaho and Western Kentucky. All at home. While Tom Allen had flipped the all offense, no defense Indiana narrative, things went perhaps a little too far in that direction, with a historically bad offense. The offense, at least the passing game, seems to have bounced back a bit this year, but the Hoosier offense looks a lot like prior vintages. Their run defense looked stout against Cincinnati last week, but Ben Bryant tore them apart through the air, with 354 passing yards, and 4 touchdowns. Connor Bazelak wasn't overly efficient, completing under 50% of his passes, but he spread the ball around to 11 different receivers, six of whom caught multiple passes. He should find the passing much easier against a Nebraska secondary allowing a Big Ten worst 66.5% opponent completion percentage. While Indiana struggled to run the ball last week, they have put up plenty of points in other games being simply sort of bad on the ground. Everyone runs on the Husker defense, who has given up more rushing yards per game (by 73 ypg) and by carry (by 1.3 ypc) than any other Big Ten team. They've also allowed a conference worst 12 rushing touchdowns, when only one other team has surrendered more than 4 (Northwestern). Could we see a rejuvenated Husker group, in a home night game? Sure. But this might be the worst defense Indiana has faced. I think they get enough on the ground to open up more passing lanes than they saw last week.

INDIANA 28, NEBRASKA 20

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK

#4 Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 4-0) at Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0, 3-1)

NOON - Iowa City, IA - FOX

Iowa City has been none too pleasant for Michigan football over the past two decades, losing 4 straight, going back to 2005, and 5 of 6, back to 2001. Granted, during the 4 game home win streak, Iowa was favored twice, and the two times they were underdogs, it was by one score. The big concern with Michigan this year was the front seven, and while its a one game sample size (the first three games could not mean less), the concerns seem validated. The Maryland offensive line bullied Michigan, and opened running lanes all over the place. They did a solid job, last drive against a prevent defense not withstanding, against the passing attack, but if Michigan can't win a trench battle, there are few teams that should concern them more than Iowa. That said, this isn't just a bland Iowa offense, it's a bad Iowa offense. They couldn't run on Rutgers last week, and thankfully Spencer Petras had his best game of the season, low bar acknowledged, and Iowa finished +3 in turnovers. The fact that J.J. McCarthy is facing his second hostile road environment, the first being in limited duty in East Lansing last year, when he fumbled the ball twice, means that is not off the table. But Rutgers doesn't have the offense to survive 3 turnovers, particularly when they generate none themselves. Even if, worst case scenario, Michigan turns the ball over 3 times, I have to believe their secondary can bail them out a few times, and unless those turnovers are actually scored upon, I'm concerned just how much Iowa can do, even with a short field. It was certainly a little surprising how well Maryland ran the ball against Michigan, but it was certainly not surprising that Maryland did move the ball. Iowa hasn't moved the ball on anyone, even Rutgers. And while Kinnick is certainly nasty to opposing teams, thanks to Big Noon Kickoff (which for the record, I like), it certainly doesn't give home teams the same type of edge that have fueled a number of those wins for the Hawkeyes. I think Iowa's run game works, and they generate more offense than expected, but unless their defense can score, those turnovers to touchdowns, turn into turnovers to punts. J.J. McCarthy probably makes a couple of mistakes in his first road start, but he also makes enough throws to beat an Iowa defense that hasn't faced a legit NFL quarterback since??? Josh Allen in the 2017 opener.

MICHIGAN 27, IOWA 21

MrNubbz · « **Reply #1 on:** September 27, 2022, 06:24:18 PM »

Prolly actually working on degrees

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 28, 2022, 02:04:56 PM »

Noon games, sans GOTW are in

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 29, 2022, 10:21:32 AM »

This the first weekend of the year during which we have all 14 league teams playing each other and although it is early, there are some very interesting match ups. This weekend's games by current Power Ranking:

#1 tOSU vs #11 RU
#2 M @ #6 Iowa
#3 PSU vs #13/14 NU
#4 MN vs #9 PU
#5 UMD vs #10 MSU
#7 UW vs #8 IL
#12 IU @ #13/14 UNL

Based on our current rankings this is Michigan's second toughest road game and arguably their second toughest game of the year. The Wolverines end the season in Columbus but other than that trip and this weekend's contest their only road games are against #11 and #12 (RU and IU respectively).

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** September 30, 2022, 12:42:43 PM »

Afternoon games in

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** September 30, 2022, 03:08:07 PM »

Night game in

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** September 30, 2022, 05:10:20 PM »

Everything in

Cincydawg · « **Reply #7 on:** October 01, 2022, 06:46:43 AM »

Do you check back on your predictions?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #8 on:** October 01, 2022, 06:49:41 AM »

Sooooo Michigan's 2nd-toughest game is against a team that couldn't score in a brothel?

Fun.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #9 on:** October 01, 2022, 08:13:53 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 01, 2022, 06:49:41 AM

Sooooo Michigan's 2nd-toughest game is against a team that couldn't score in a brothel?

Fun.

You couldn't score in a women's prison, with a handful of pardons and a bag of dope.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #10 on:** October 01, 2022, 08:30:33 AM »

A top ten ranked team likely won't play as many top ten or ranked teams as a bottom feeder for obvious reasons. I think PSU is their 2nd toughest even being in AA.

But maybe PSU isn't quite as good as they are ranked at the moment.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #11 on:** October 01, 2022, 09:06:54 AM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 01, 2022, 08:13:53 AM

You couldn't score in a women's prison, with a handful of pardons and a bag of dope.

Mmm, that's what I want: face tats and bad decisions.....wait, same thing

ELA · « **Reply #12 on:** October 01, 2022, 09:13:31 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2022, 06:46:43 AM

Do you check back on your predictions?

I try not to

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #13 on:** October 01, 2022, 09:19:47 AM »

I really thought Washington would beat UCLA.

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Topic: ELA October 1 Breakdown

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ELA October 1 Breakdown

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