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Topic: ELA November 6 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 02, 2021, 06:15:12 PM »

#5 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 7-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-5, 3-6)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - FOX

Nebraska is the definition of playing up or down to your opponent. Their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Michigan State, should have been wins. Their next two, Oklahoma and Minnesota, were both one score losses. But then they lost at Illinois and home against Purdue. I suppose this is the ultimate test of that. If Nebraska can play close to Ohio State, Husker fans may just throw their hands up in the air. The Husker defensive line hasn't been great at getting pressure on the quarterback, but they have been pretty solid against the run, giving up just 3.8 ypc, and have been outstanding in short yardage situations, ranking 12th in the nation in defensive success rate in 3rd/4th and 2 or less. That has to give them some hope, after the Buckeye offensive line struggled in run blocking against a Penn State defensive front that had gotten absolutely blown off the ball by Illinois' offensive line a week earlier. TreVeyon Henderson still got 152 rushing yards, but he needed 28 carries to do it, and got 68 of those on one carry. Against the two best defenses Ohio State has played, Oregon and Penn State, that line struggled with run blocking. The problem, is neither time did C.J. Stroud let it effect him. Throwing for 789 yards, 4 touchdowns and just 1 interception. So, fine Nebraska, take away the run, Stroud will just beat you. The Huskers will let him complete whatever he wants, and then try to keep the receivers in front of them. In terms of yards per attempt, Nebraska's pass defense looks pretty good statistically, top 20 nationally, but that's because they rank 3rd in the country in yards allowed per completion, but while allowing opponents to complete over 66% of their attempts, in the bottom 25 of the FBS. Stroud is leading the Power 5 in yards per attempt, thanks to a dynamic receiving group, where Alabama's best receiver couldn't even get playing time. You want to let this group catch the ball, and think you can tackle them? Good luck with that.

OHIO STATE 41, NEBRASKA 23

Illinois Fighting Illini (2-4, 3-6) at #20 Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1, 6-2)

NOON - Minneapolis, MN - espn2

A month ago I may have said these were the two hardest teams in the conference to figure out. Now, Minnesota's results perhaps make as much sense as anybody, and they had one fluke loss. Illinois remains perplexing. The Illini go into Happy Valley, and absolute dominate the run game, on both sides of the ball, and upset the Nittany Lions. Then they return home, face a Rutgers team coming off a loss to Northwestern. Not just a loss, but the first time all year Northwestern's nation worst run defense held a team in check. So naturally Illinois got more than doubled up on the ground, 230-107. Now they have to face what has been the Big Ten's best run blocking line. Common sense would say the Gophers are going to run at will. Illinois sense says the opposite. Minnesota returned the Big Ten's leading rusher from last year, lost him for the season to an injury, then lost their top two backups. They are down to their 4th and 5th string backs from the opening depth chart, a pair of true freshmen, and they went out last week and combined for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5.4 ypc. Caveat for the already mentioned horrific Northwestern run defense. The key has been the gelling of the offensive line with that ground game. In standard downs, the Minnesota line ranks #15 nationally, #2 in the Big Ten, and are 11th nationally in preventing run plays for zero or negative yardage. If the Gophers can win for 4 touchdowns, while Tanner Morgan only needs to complete 12 passes, that is ideal, although I think they would like to get Chris Autman-Bell more involved. After finally appearing to break out with 15 receptions for 138 yards over the previous two games, Autman-Bell was held in check. Minnesota doesn't need to pass the ball a ton, and may not need to at all this week, but with upcoming games against Iowa and Wisconsin to determine the division title, they need Autman-Bell's deep ball threat to keep those monster defenses from jamming up the box.

MINNESOTA 28, ILLINOIS 13

Penn State Nittany Lions (2-3, 5-3) at Maryland Terrapins (2-3, 5-3)

3:30 - College Park, MD - FS1

The Big Ten sort of half tried to make Maryland and Rutgers into a rivalry. It made some sense as the two east coast schools, and the two newest additions. Then, in the name of "fairness" they sort of established a rivalry week rotation which made Maryland and Michigan State "rivals" in certain years. But Maryland and Rutgers had only played each other twice since World War II, until joining the Big Ten. The Spartans and Terps hadn't played since 1950. Make no mistake about it, Penn State is the school Maryland hated the most upon joining the conference. Does Penn State return the feeling? Certainly not, but neither does Ohio State towards them. And while younger Terp fans maybe don't fully get it, "older" ones certainly remember when the two schools used to play almost annually in the old Eastern Independent days. From 1960-1993, the two schools played each other in all but three seasons. Frequently those games took place in November. And almost always Penn State won, going 29-1-1, with the one win being way back in 1961. Joe Paterno never lost to Maryland in 25 tries. So you better believe it was sweet when Maryland went into Happy Valley in 2014 and beat Penn State in their first year in the conference. Trust me, I watched the game with a Maryland alum. Penn State reseized control of the series, winning the next 5, the last three by 63, 35, and 59. Maryland won again last year on the road. So maybe getting this game at home isn't such a good thing. But Maryland has a great chance to turn their season right back around. It looked to be going a little off the rails, but a home win against Indiana makes a bowl game a distinct possibility, with just a win over Rutgers. You add in wins over a vulnerable Penn State, or Michigan State, suddenly this is the best Maryland season since 2010, the last season they finished ranked. This is not a Penn State team that can control the trenches against Maryland as some of the better ones have, so if Maryland can just rely on athletes, they can perhaps hold their own. The Nittany Lions have only rushed for 100 yards three times this season, and two of those were against Villanova and Ball State. The line has not run blocked well at all. The problem is that Maryland is even worse at running the ball, and a week after an embarrassing performance at Illinois, the Penn State run defense bounced back against Ohio State, and aside from one long run, shut the Buckeyes down on the ground. Taulia Tagovailoa has struggled since Dontay Demus went down, and I don't think against arguably the best secondary in the Big Ten is where he gets that figured out.

PENN STATE 27, MARYLAND 21

#21 Wisconsin Badgers (3-2, 5-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-4, 4-4)

3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

Wisconsin was able to claw their way off the mat against lesser opponents, and then put it all together with back to back dominating wins over Purdue and Iowa. Now it's back to the dregs of the Big Ten against a Rutgers team, who rebounded from an upset loss to Northwestern to beat Illinois, and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. The obvious path is at Indiana and home against Maryland, but Wisconsin's lack of offense may allow Rutgers to remain within striking distance. The issue is how the hell is Rutgers going to score at all against this Wisconsin defense which may actually be playing even better than they were in September. Some of the difference may be attributable to the fact that the offense finally looks at least competent. It is still far from a vintage unit, but they look a lot better than the unit that managed just 20 points against an Army team that just gave up 70 points to Wake Forest, allowing a touchdown on every possession but one. The Scarlet Knights run defense has been fairly solid. The only big running games they allowed were against Michigan State and Ohio State, and those were primarily based on a couple of big runs, rather than consistently giving up 4 and 5 yard runs, which is how this Wisconsin run game operates. last week, in beating Illinois, the Scarlet Knights were able to hold an Illinois run game, coming off a 300+ yard game at Penn State, to just 107 yards on 3.6 ypc, with just one run of over 8 yards. If they can do that again this week, and force turnovers, which Wisconsin has seemingly fixed after struggling early in the year, they'll have a chance, because this Wisconsin offense is not built to exploit Rutgers' Big Ten worst pass defense, which is giving up 10.6 ypa in conference games. The most positive sign that Rutgers got out of their win last week though might be the fact they hit four pass plays of 20+ yards. Those chunk plays had avoided Rutgers this year, and is probably the only hope the Scarlet Knights have of moving the ball. Receiver Bo Melton is the best offensive weapon Rutgers has, and got hurt early in the Ohio State game, and then subsequently missed the Michigan State game. Otherwise he has caught at least 4 passes in every game. I think Rutgers, at home, keeps this closer than expected, but the game is never really in doubt.

WISCONSIN 24, RUTGERS 17

#22 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2, 6-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-4, 3-5)

7:00 - Evanston, IL - BTN

The easy narrative is that Iowa's turnover luck ran out. That's obviously part of it, but there is more to it, particularly with what Wisconsin was able to do. Listening to Michael Felder break it down on the Athletic's college football podcast this week, the bigger issue is teams figuring out that Iowa's defensive pieces only seem to have one pitch. Their secondary is outstanding in run support, and being able to crash down on ball carriers. Against vertical routes, not so much. Matt Nelson looked like a Thorpe Award frontrunner in September. The past two games, he has been at best invisible, at worst a liability. Particularly concerning is that last week was off the bye week. If Purdue's coaches saw something, and exploited it, good on them. Not being able to adjust with an extra week off for Iowa's coaches is a bit concerning. Offensively, Iowa wants to run, but they just can't. I'm not sure I've ever written that in one of these before. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 2.8 ypc in Big Ten play, #13 in the conference. Among the 7 Big Ten teams averaging below 4.1 ypc, only Rutgers is running the ball more often than Iowa, so they are sticking to their guns. So getting off to a quicker start is a must. Iowa fell behind 17-3 to Penn State, and needed a Sean Clifford injury to comeback. They fell behind in the first quarter against Purdue, and same against Wisconsin. They have led at no point during those two losses. Iowa's run offense is just regular bad, Northwestern's run defense is a special kind of bad. If there was ever an opponent to get some things on that line figured out against, it's this Northwestern team. Let Spencer Petras get back to doing what he was doing earlier in the year, not the guy who has completed just 50% of his passes over the past two weeks, with no touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and been sacked 9 times. part of that is Petras being exposed, and part of that is simply being an offense that cannot play from behind. I doubt that'll be an issue this week. If it is, Iowa's spiral could take them from #2 in the nation to a 7-5 finish.

IOWA 30, NORTHWESTERN 14

Indiana Hoosiers (0-5, 2-6) at #7 Michigan Wolverines (4-1, 7-1)

7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX

Anyone worried about a hangover from last week for Michigan absolutely should not be. For whatever your criticisms of Jim Harbaugh are, these are not the games he loses. In fact, his only home loss to anyone other than Ohio State or Michigan State was in the pandemic fluke season, to Wisconsin. Otherwise, the Wolverines' last such loss was in Brady Hoke's last game in Michigan Stadium, November 22, 2014, to Maryland. 34 consecutive wins otherwise. The big difference from this time last week is that both teams might feel like they actually have a quarterback, albeit for different reasons. Tom Allen indicated that Michael Penix is close to returning, but after the way Donaven McCulley played last week, why risk it? Jack Tuttle was completing a high percentage of his passes, but doing nothing to stretch the field, but the redshirt freshman appears to be the exact opposite. McCulley completed just 56% of his passes last week, but for nearly 10 yards a completion, without throwing an interception. Jack Tuttle, in his one full start, was at 6.7. Michigan simply hadn't asked Cade McNamera to do much, but he made clear last week that he could step up if asked to. You could easily make the argument that Michigan does not blow the lead if McNamera remains in the game. The Wolverines were stopped twice thanks to fumbles by J.J. McCarthy. One which Michigan retained, but put them behind the sticks, and one which was a turnover. He really only made two mistakes, and both were once Michigan was down four, and the Spartans knew he was passing. He made the wrong read on a 4th down pick play, and he got baited into a game ending interception. When the Wolverines still had the run game at their disposal, and play action was in play, Cade was darn near perfect. I have to imagine that this week, they will be in that position the entire game.

MICHIGAN 37, INDIANA 14

***GAME OF THE WEEK***

#3 Michigan State Spartans (5-0, 8-0) at Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 5-3)

3:30 - West Lafayette, IN - ABC

Michgigan State fans were pleasantly surprised to see their team ranked #3 in the initial CFP rankings. They were perhaps even more pleased to not be ranked #2. The random success of Purdue playing top 2 teams was well documented a couple weeks ago, after they upset then #2 Iowa. This series specifically has been marked by long runs of dominance, going back 50 years. From 1970-77, Michigan State won 7 of 8; then Purdue went 6-0-1 in the next seven. Michigan State answered by going 10-1-1 from 1985 til 1996. Joe Tiller flipped the series back, winning six of his first seven games in the series. Oddly the one loss was in November of 2000, when a mediocre Michigan State team routed #9 Purdue 30-10, to cost Purdue an outright Big Ten Championship. That may have been in response to Purdue upsetting Michigan State the prior year, costing the last Nick Saban team a Big Ten title. Mark Dantonio arrived in East Lansing in 2007, and since then, Michigan State has gone 8-0. That doesn't tell nearly the entire story though. In 2009, the Spartans had to come back from 11 down in the 4th against a bad Purdue team to get bowl eligible. The next year, #11 Michigan State erased a 15 point 4th quarter deficit against a 4-8 Purdue team, with a 22-3 4th quarter win. En route to a Big Ten title in 2013, Michigan State scored their first offensive touchdown with 8 minutes left, to win 14-0. In 2014, Purdue had the ball with the chance to tie # 8 Michigan State on their final possession, when Austin Appleby threw a pick six on the final possession. Again in 2015, #2 Michigan State led 21-0 at half, but Purdue had the ball down 24-21 in the final minute, in Spartan territory, just ouf field goal range, when Michigan State forced a turnover on downs. The last time these guys played, the Rocky Lombardi game in 2018, was actually the most "convincing" win of Michigan State's current eight game winning streak, 23-13. So, even though Purdue hasn't won since 2006, consider me very worried. As for the actual game, Michigan State absolutely needs to stay ahead of the sticks. Purdue's line is susceptible to the run, but they are a special kind of nasty against the pass. Michigan's edge rush gave the Spartan tackles all kinds of issues last week, and George Karlaftis is probably the only such player in the conversation with Aidan Hutchinson in the conference. It was part the Spartan pass protection, and part Peyton Thorne's belief in his own ability to dodge tacklers. Much like Hutchinson, Thorne is not going to evade Karlaftis. Jalen Nailor, who left the Michigan game, and had his hand in a cast, is likely still out. Receiver is probably the one position where Michigan State has depth, but the dropoff from #2 to #3 is huge. There are just a million guys in the running to be #3. Purdue should be able to focus on Reed, and if Michigan State isn't winning first down, they will lose. I think Kenneth Walker does enough that they don't.

MICHIGAN STATE 24, PURDUE 19

MrNubbz · « **Reply #1 on:** November 02, 2021, 06:38:18 PM »

Like PSU the 'Skers can play loose and have fun.Just hoping the Silver Bullets get out of Lincoln with a 7-10 pt win

FearlessF · « **Reply #2 on:** November 02, 2021, 07:53:01 PM »

that's what Vegas is expecting

only 15 points doesn't seem enough

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** November 03, 2021, 10:45:54 AM »

Noon games in

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** November 04, 2021, 11:49:05 AM »

Afternoon games in

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** November 06, 2021, 02:53:29 PM »

Just need to hurry up and get the GOTW in!

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** November 06, 2021, 03:41:39 PM »

Everything in

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Topic: ELA November 6 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 6 Breakdown

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