I assume the GOTW has to be PU/IA because it is the only game that both:
- Looks to be possibly competitive, and
- Involves a team still plausibility in the CG race.
Actually, GOTW might be Illinois at Michigan State because it is the game with the biggest impact on the CG race:
- Illinois has a one-game lead on PU in the B1G-W and a two-game lead on everybody else not named Northwestern.
- Illinois' last game is Northwestern so it is safe to assume an Illinois win there.
- Illinois' penultimate game is AT Michigan so a likely Illinois loss.
- Illinois' game after MSU is Purdue so a possibly competitive game.
Assuming that Illinois will beat NU and lose in Ann Arbor their final record will be either:
- 7-2 if they beat both MSU and PU
- 6-3 if they split with MSU and PU
- 5-4 if they lose to both MSU and PU
Purdue is 3-2. If they lose to IL in two weeks that gives them a third loss and IL a fifth win. With NU as an assumed win for IL, that would mean that IL could do no worse than 6-3 and since they would have wins over all the 3-loss teams in the B1G-W they'd effectively clinch.
Ie, nobody can catch IL unless Purdue beats them. Thus, there is no discussion of B1G-W scenarios if IL beats PU because there is only one.
Consequently, I'm going to focus on the scenarios IF Purdue beats Illinois (and assuming that IL loses at M and beats NU):
- If IL loses to MSU they finish 5-4. This puts all the 3-loss teams back in the race.
- If IL beats MSU they finish 6-3. Illinois would win any two-way tie except with Purdue. A three-way tie with Purdue and another team would be interesting. The first tiebreaker is H2H2H and we know that IL would have a loss (to PU) and a win (IL beat all the other teams that could possibly finish 6-3). Purdue would have a win (over IL). If PU beat the other 6-3 team then Purdue wins with a 2-0 H2H2H. If Purdue lost to the other team then we'd move to the next tiebreaker which is divisional record. I have to assume that Illinois would win this because they'd be 5-1 (lost only to PU).
Iowa/Purdue/Illinois tiebreaker scenario:
First, to get there assume that:
- Iowa wins out (@PU, vsUW, @MN, vsUNL) to finish 6-3.
- Purdue loses to Iowa but otherwise wins out (vsIA, @IL, vsNU, @IU) to finish 6-3.
- Illinois beats MSU and NU but loses to PU and M to finish 6-3.
First tiebreaker is H2H2H but that doesn't help because Iowa>Purdue>Illinois>Iowa.
Second tiebreaker is divisional record. Iowa and Illinois would be 5-1 (losses only to IL and PU respectively) and PU would be 4-2 (losses to UW and IA). My understanding of the tiebreakers is that at that point Purdue would be eliminated and the other two would revert to the 2-team H2H so Illinois would win.
Thus, if Illinois beats MSU (and assuming that they WILL beat NU) then only Purdue could overtake them for the CG slot. However, if Illinois were to lose to MSU it would open the door for everybody because any of the 3-loss teams could win out and finish ahead of IL if IL also loses to PU and M.