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Topic: ELA November 5 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 02, 2022, 02:26:41 PM »

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 8-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-4, 1-7)

NOON - Evanston, IL - ABC

This game is nearly impossible to predict, as far as what the score is going to be. Northwestern's offense gets the the brunt of the criticism, but the defense is also #78 in SP+ and have the 2nd worst special teams in all of the FBS. They just made Iowa's offense look decent. Ohio State's defense looks much improved, and the offense is always the offense. So this is a "pick your score" game. Ryan Day isn't particularly noted for calling the dogs off. C.J. Stroud was still passing the ball in the fourth quarter of all four of Ohio State's blowout conference wins. But the pace certainly changes, as does the personnel. So would it surprise me if the Buckeyes put up 70? Nope. But this is closer to being an FCS game than a Big Ten game. So I don't think anyone is aided by Stroud doing that here. While these teams have played in the Big Ten Championship Game twice, the series is ridiculously lopsided. Northwestern's last win in the Horseshoe was in 1971, and their only series win since then was in 2004. Evan Hull is Northwestern's lone weapon, ranking top 10 in the FBS in all purpose yardage. But as it's become more and more clear that he is the entirety of the Wildcats' offense, he's found things much tougher. He had 174 combined rushing and receiving yards in the opener against Nebraska, 278 against Duke, and 157 against Southern Illinois. In the five games since, he only exceeded 100 once, against Maryland, and needed 24 touches to do it. It's supposed to be very wet and windy, on natural grass, a combination that resulted in Northwestern keeping it surprisingly close against Penn State in Happy Valley a few weeks back. But the Nittany Lions contributed there by turning the ball over 5 times. The Buckeyes are one of 17 teams in the nation averaging less than 1 giveaway per game.

OHIO STATE 49, NORTHWESTERN 6

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-3, 5-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-3, 3-5)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - espn2

Illinois doesn't really play a style that lends itself to blowouts, kind of like the best early Big Ten title Jim Tressell teams, or early Big Ten title Mark Dantonio teams. But a look at some of the game control stats from last week show just how ugly it was for the Huskers. The Illini controlled roughly 2/3 of the time of possession (38:13-21:47), held Nebraska to just one drive of 50 yards, and were +3 in turnover differential. Minnesota looks like Diet Illinois right now, but based on those numbers, they'd have to be Illinois Zero to feel good about where the Huskers stand. The fact that starting quarterback Casey Thompson hasn't yet returned to practice this week since leaving in the second quarter last week, only adds to Nebraska's issues. Chubba Purdy went 3-8 for 15 yards and an interception, plus -11 rushing yards in relief of Thompson. Logan Smothers came in and threw 1 pass, for 1 yard, to Trey Palmer, his lone reception in the game. Apparently the two quarterbacks split reps in Tuesday practice, but whoever commits to getting the ball to Palmer should get the job. He's easily Nebraska's biggest weapon, coming off a 7 reception, 237 yard, 2 touchdown performance against Purdue. Minnesota was able to right the ship against Rutgers, who is frequently good for that. They ran the ball, and shut down the Rutgers offense. Mo Ibrahim ran for 159 yards, on 36 carries, with 3 touchdowns, leading a 253 yard team performance. Tanner Morgan passed the ball just 21 times, and for under 10 yards per catch, but completed 66.7% of his passes. They held Rutgers to just 134 yards of offense. Nebraska's offense, with Casey Thompson, is probably better than Rutgers', but without him, I'm not sure how much they are. This is based on assuming no Thompson, but with him, they probably keep it to within 7 or 8, but I still don't think he's the difference between a win and a loss.

MINNESOTA 27, NEBRASKA 14

Maryland Terrapins (3-2, 6-2) at Wisconsin Badgers (2-3, 4-4)

NOON - Madison, WI - BTN

This has the makings of a sneaky good game. I'm not fully sure what to make of either of these teams, and I'm not sure they know themselves. Maryland is 6-2, and probably deserves to be ranked. They likely will be with a win here. But what's their best win? SMU at home? This kicks off a three week stretch of @Wisconsin, @Penn State, Ohio State. I think any Maryland fan would sign off for just winning one of those (although they'd privately ask for a guarantee that its Penn State). But if they can take this one, with Rutgers in the finale, they would get their first 8 win regular season since 2010, and only their second in the past 20 years (the other being 2006). For Wisconsin, are they back on the rails under Jim Leonhard? Were they ever even off the rails? They are 2-1 under Leonhard, but everyone pounds Northwestern. So what's real, a loss to a bad Michigan State team, or a home win over Purdue, that was not nearly as bad as the final score? And did they actually flip anything? Losing by 31 to Ohio State and 24 to Illinois actually kind of seems par for the course now, the better we know how good the Illini actually are. So is this all about a 3 point loss to Washington State? Both teams are coming in off a bye week, and both teams badly needed it. Wisconsin appears to have gotten substantially healthier, and Maryland appears to be getting Taulia Tagovailoa out. He got knocked out early in the 4th quarter against Indiana, with the Terps down 27-24. The headline was backup quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. leading the comeback, and while he did quarterback them to back to back touchdown drives, he went 0-3 passing, with Maryland picking up all 123 yards on said drives through 11 runs. They then ran the ball 50 times in squeaking out a win against Northwestern last week. They won't be able to get away with that this week. Unlike the uncertainty above, with Casey Thompson, a actually do think whether or not Taulia plays will determine who wins the game. And it seems like he's going to play.

MARYLAND 28, WISCONSIN 26

#15 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 6-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-4, 3-5)

3:30 - Bloomington, IN - ABC

I just typed up a whole preview, and when I went to post it, it timed out, and was lost. So let's summarize with the fact that it was all some extreme on point genius, that you might mistake for a 2022 Lee Corso.

PENN STATE 34, INDIANA 17

Michigan State Spartans (1-4, 3-5) at #16 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1, 7-1)

3:30 - Champaign, IL - BTN

While the talk has been, and mostly rightfully so, about the struggles of Michigan State's defense, quietly the offense has maybe become the bigger problem. The defense mostly stopped a resugant Wisconsin offense, and held Michigan to fewer yards and points than last year; their offense was a complete no show though. The problems start up front, which is why the Spartans have failed on a couple of 4th and goal short yardage plays in each of their last two games. Unfortunately for them, as good as Michigan's run defense is (#2 in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game allowed and yards per carry allowed), Illinois' is actually better. It's crazy to think that the only thing between Illinois being an undefeated, top ten team, is the fact that that defense couldn't hold a late lead against Indiana. It's not like this team is doing it with smoke and mirrors either. Aside from a 9-6 rock fight against Iowa, the Illini are killing teams. By 32 over Wyoming, by 21 over Virginia, by 31 against top 10 FCS Chattanooga, by 24 over Wisconsin, by 12 over Minnesota, and by 17 over Nebraska. They have only allowed one second half score (a third quarter touchdown by Minnesota) in the 6 games since Indiana. So whatever you are going to get on this defense, you better get it quickly, because their halftime adjustments have been elite. The Spartans have been the exact opposite, getting shut out in the second halves of four of their five Big Ten games, not counting garbage time touchdowns. The Wisconsin win was the lone time the offense showed up after intermission. The Spartans have probably the best passing attack Illinois has seen, and certainly the best group of receivers, so for Michigan State to have a shot, they need to keep the Illini close, and hit enough big plays. They certainly aren't going to generate any sustained offense with this line against that front. The postgame last week tells me this is a frustrated locker room, I don't see them scraping together a bowl salvaging win.

ILLINOIS 31, MICHIGAN STATE 13

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 02, 2022, 03:02:19 PM »

Quote from: ELA on November 02, 2022, 02:26:41 PM

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 8-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-4, 1-7)
NOON - Evanston, IL - ABC
Northwestern's last win in the Horseshoe was in 1971, and their only series win since then was in 2004.

I was born after 1971.

As most of you here know, I traveled to all 14 B1G stadiums with my dad and brother and we watched the Buckeyes play in all of them.

Guess which year we went to Evanston?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #2 on:** November 02, 2022, 03:11:14 PM »

This weekend's games by Power Rankings:

#1 Ohio State at #14 Northwestern
#2 Michigan at #12 Rutgers
#3 Penn State at #13 Indiana
#4 Illinois vs #10 Michigan State
#5 Wisconsin vs #6 Maryland
#7 Purdue vs #9 Iowa
#8 Minnesota at #11 Nebraska

This is about as weak as a full slate of league games could possibly be. With the top-4 playing four of the bottom-5 there just isn't much to see.

I assume the GOTW has to be PU/IA because it is the only game that both:

Looks to be possibly competitive, and
Involves a team still plausibility in the CG race.

FearlessF · « **Reply #3 on:** November 02, 2022, 04:00:12 PM »

apparently Casey Thompson practiced some this morning

Coach Mickey says all 3 QBs could play some snaps

if it turns out only a 13 point loss I'd be surprised and wish I had attended the game

I will be tailgating in Lincoln Saturday with some Gophers.

Doubt I'll go to the stadium. Even though tickets might be free to scalpers

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** November 02, 2022, 04:23:07 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 02, 2022, 03:02:19 PM

Guess which year we went to Evanston?

Guessing the only one worth going to

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** November 02, 2022, 04:23:32 PM »

All noon, non-GOTW games in

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #6 on:** November 02, 2022, 04:33:23 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 02, 2022, 03:11:14 PM

I assume the GOTW has to be PU/IA because it is the only game that both:
Looks to be possibly competitive, and
Involves a team still plausibility in the CG race.

Actually, GOTW might be Illinois at Michigan State because it is the game with the biggest impact on the CG race:

Illinois has a one-game lead on PU in the B1G-W and a two-game lead on everybody else not named Northwestern.
Illinois' last game is Northwestern so it is safe to assume an Illinois win there.
Illinois' penultimate game is AT Michigan so a likely Illinois loss.
Illinois' game after MSU is Purdue so a possibly competitive game.

Assuming that Illinois will beat NU and lose in Ann Arbor their final record will be either:

7-2 if they beat both MSU and PU
6-3 if they split with MSU and PU
5-4 if they lose to both MSU and PU

Purdue is 3-2. If they lose to IL in two weeks that gives them a third loss and IL a fifth win. With NU as an assumed win for IL, that would mean that IL could do no worse than 6-3 and since they would have wins over all the 3-loss teams in the B1G-W they'd effectively clinch.

Ie, nobody can catch IL unless Purdue beats them. Thus, there is no discussion of B1G-W scenarios if IL beats PU because there is only one.

Consequently, I'm going to focus on the scenarios IF Purdue beats Illinois (and assuming that IL loses at M and beats NU):

If IL loses to MSU they finish 5-4. This puts all the 3-loss teams back in the race.
If IL beats MSU they finish 6-3. Illinois would win any two-way tie except with Purdue. A three-way tie with Purdue and another team would be interesting. The first tiebreaker is H2H2H and we know that IL would have a loss (to PU) and a win (IL beat all the other teams that could possibly finish 6-3). Purdue would have a win (over IL). If PU beat the other 6-3 team then Purdue wins with a 2-0 H2H2H. If Purdue lost to the other team then we'd move to the next tiebreaker which is divisional record. I have to assume that Illinois would win this because they'd be 5-1 (lost only to PU).

Iowa/Purdue/Illinois tiebreaker scenario:

First, to get there assume that:

Iowa wins out (@PU, vsUW, @MN, vsUNL) to finish 6-3.
Purdue loses to Iowa but otherwise wins out (vsIA, @IL, vsNU, @IU) to finish 6-3.
Illinois beats MSU and NU but loses to PU and M to finish 6-3.

First tiebreaker is H2H2H but that doesn't help because Iowa>Purdue>Illinois>Iowa.

Second tiebreaker is divisional record. Iowa and Illinois would be 5-1 (losses only to IL and PU respectively) and PU would be 4-2 (losses to UW and IA). My understanding of the tiebreakers is that at that point Purdue would be eliminated and the other two would revert to the 2-team H2H so Illinois would win.

Thus, if Illinois beats MSU (and assuming that they WILL beat NU) then only Purdue could overtake them for the CG slot. However, if Illinois were to lose to MSU it would open the door for everybody because any of the 3-loss teams could win out and finish ahead of IL if IL also loses to PU and M.

MarqHusker · « **Reply #7 on:** November 02, 2022, 10:10:28 PM »

Maybe there's a game worth watching on CBS this week.

ELA · « **Reply #8 on:** November 02, 2022, 10:41:44 PM »

They don't have the Big Ten package yet

MarqHusker · « **Reply #9 on:** November 03, 2022, 12:16:34 AM »

Maybe the host could consider breaking down that one for us, time permitting of course.

ELA · « **Reply #10 on:** November 04, 2022, 10:30:59 AM »

Afternoon games in

LittlePig · « **Reply #11 on:** November 04, 2022, 02:57:22 PM »

Minn/Neb, MD/Wisc, Iowa/Pur games will all help sort out bowl projections for Big Ten West teams.

Purdue can clinch a bowl with a win, but will have other chances against ILL, NW, Ind. So odds are good Purdue will go bowling in a decent bowl.

Minn can clinch a bowl with a win, but will have other chances too against NW, Iowa, Wisc. So odds are good Minn will go bowling, probably to the Pinstripe since they have never gone to the Pinstripe.

Iowa and Wisc still need 2 wins and both will play Minn and Neb later and also play each other later. So odds are good the winner of Iowa/wisc will go bowling, while the loser of Iowa/wisc is a little less certain. But if Iowa and Wisc can spring surprise wins this Sat against Purdue and MD, their odds of going bowling go up dramatically.

Neb almost has to win against Minn to keep their slim bowl hopes alive. They still have to play Mich, Iowa. Wisc later. 2 more losses and they are out.

ELA · « **Reply #12 on:** November 04, 2022, 03:06:09 PM »

Eh, there hasn't really been a bowl selection order in a minute. I think Rose, then Citrus, then beyond that it's just who hasn't been there in a minute

FearlessF · « **Reply #13 on:** November 04, 2022, 03:19:11 PM »

Nebraska is out

I said that shortly after the loss to Northwestern

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Topic: ELA November 5 Breakdown

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ELA November 5 Breakdown

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