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Topic: ELA November 27 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 23, 2021, 10:52:05 AM »

#16 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2, 9-2) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-7, 3-8)

1:30 (Fri) - Lincoln, NE - BTN

I will be interested to see what the vibe in Memorial Stadium on Friday afternoon will be. It's Thanksgiving football in Lincoln, it should be packed, and it's their last chance to the Huskers for another 9+ months. But it's also the final game in what could be the program's worst season since 1957, Scott Frost is returning, and Adrian Martinez is out. Iowa's defense is tough enough even if the Huskers had Martinez, and even though his propensity to turn the ball over is not ideal against a defense that ranks #2 in the nation in the nation in takeaways, I think still needs the threat of his explosiveness to have a shot. Iowa's quarterback situation is unclear, although my support last week for Alex Padilla looks ill advised after he got the start against Illinois...and struggled mightily. I said that while he wasn't going to complete for a percentage on par with Spencer Petras, he ability to push the ball down the field offset that, and opened up space for Tyler Goodson behind a line that does not run block up to Iowa's standard. 6-17 for 83 yards, a pick and 2 sacks. Maybe there is something to at least opening up some space for Tyler Goodson? Maybe? Goodson's 132 rushing yards was arguably his best performance of the season considering that his only higher rushing totals came against Kent State and Northwestern. But even that probably wouldn't have been enough without a pick six, a kick return touchdown, and four field goals, including a 51 yarder. I would expect Spencer Petras to be back under center, assuming he is healthy. The story of this season has been near miss after near miss, as Nebraska has run off a five game losing streak, by an average of 6 ppg, with the biggest loss all season being 9 points. But that's with Adrian Martinez, who is not only 4th in the Big Ten in passing, but is Nebraska's second leading rusher in Big Ten play. Freshman Logan Smothers has only seen extensive quarterback reps, against Fordham on Labor Day weekend. He had a QBR of 13.4. It's unclear if Rahmir Johnson, the team's leading rusher, will be back, after missing the Wisconsin game. With Johnson out, Brody Belt, Marvin Scott III and Markese Stepp combined for 78 yards on 25 carries (3.1 ypc). That's why even with a shoulder injury that is ending his season, Adrian Martinez threw the ball a season high 35 times, the second most attempts since his freshman year. If the options are to lean on that combination of backs, or a freshman throwing the ball 35 times in his first career start, give me the Hawkeye defense.

IOWA 31, NEBRASKA 14

Maryland Terrapins (2-6, 5-6) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-6, 5-6)

NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

How do these two not play for a trophy. A bust of Jim Delany or something of the sort? This game is everything about the last decade in his tenure. Maryland and Rutgers, his final two additions, playing Thanksgiving Saturday, not the Saturday before, so the stadium will be empty, on the BTN that he helped create, for bowl eligibility, so that we can play a game in Indianapolis next weekend. Maryland did their usual September fake out, followed by complete collapse. The Terps were 4-0 in September, hosting #5 Iowa on Friday night, with all of the eyeballs in the nation. They got romped, and have lost 6 of 7 since, all of the losses being by 3+ scores, the one win being over an Indiana team in absolute freefall, at home, by 3, easily the best performance Indiana has had all year against a Power Five team. Rutgers has been all over the place, but for the finale they return home...to a place where they somehow play worse. At home Rutgers has gotten blasted by Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. On the road, they've beaten Syracuse, Illinois and Indiana, and given Michigan and Penn State games. So considering either stadium will be empty, maybe Greg Schiano should offer to play this one in College Park. Taulia Tagovailoa vs. the Rutgers passing defense should determine this one. Tagovailoa is 3rd in the Big Ten in passing yards per game in Big Ten play, going up against the Big Ten's worst pass defense, in terms of yards per attempt. The problem with Tagovailoa has been he puts up yards in bulk, but hasn't been efficient. He's in the bottom half of the conference in QBR, behind guys like Payton Thorne, Adrian Martinez and Tanner Morgan. Just two weeks ago, he threw for 350 yards, but Maryland only scored 21 points. Why? On back to back possessions he went a combined 0-6 once Maryland had 1st and 10 across midfield; he threw a red zone interception, they missed a field goal, he took a 15 yard sack on 1st and 10 in fringe field goal range, they failed to pick up a 4th and 1, they took a false start on 4th and 7 when they were going for it. That sums up the Terps. They'll get their yards...but they'll make WAY too many mistakes.

RUTGERS 27, MARYLAND 24

Penn State Nittany Lions (4-4, 7-4) at #12 Michigan State Spartans (6-2, 9-2)

3:30 - East Lansing, MI - ABC

The health status of Michigan State's skill position players makes this one nearly impossible to predict. Kenneth Walker III is banged up, only got 6 carries last week, and his status to even play is in doubt. Their top 2 receivers are both still out, as Nailor still has a cast on his hand, and Jayden Reed spent the second half last week in a boot. No word on starting LT Jarrett Horst, who hasn't played since the Michigan game. Defensively, both cornerbacks were already out for the season, and top lineman Jakub Panasiuk, middle linebacker Quavarius Crouch, and top safety Xavier Henderson all finished last week in street clothes. The roster turnover at the top has been remarkable in Year 1 to Year 2 for Mel Tucker, but I think we are starting to see how flimsy the depth remains. This isn't a new problem, even at the height of Dantonio, he was doing a great job mining MAC level recruits and turning them into Big Ten starters; but behind them were MAC level recruits...for a reason. I said preseason that I thought receiver was the deepest on the team, so I'm actually more comfortable with those guys stepping up. Keon Coleman was the true freshman we heard the most about in fall camp, and I'm surprised we hadn't seen more of him previously. He scored the one touchdown against Ohio State, on a hell of a catch. But Penn State's defense is no joke, particularly the secondary. To have any sort of game against that back four, down his three best weapons, Peyton Thorne is going to have to have his best game of the season. Penn State's concern isn't injuries, but a team wide flu outbreak, that impacted the team last week in a win over Rutgers that stayed too close for too long. 21 players, including 4 offensive line starters, missed the game. Even without Panasiuk and Crouch, the Spartans front can be formidable at time, when you don't have 3 NFL receivers running free almost immediately on every play. You would assume you wouldn't still be suffering from ailments a week later, but who knows how close to 100% they'll be in terms of physicality and conditioning after that. There are so many unknowns, so I'll give the edge to Penn State having better depth, and a chance that more of their guys will be back.

PENN STATE 21, MICHIGAN STATE 20

Indiana Hoosiers (0-8, 2-9) at Purdue Boilermakers (5-3, 7-4)

3:30 - West Lafayette, IN - FS1

A year after wondering whether Brohm was actually going to get Purdue to turn a corner, and whether Indiana was going to be able to keep Tom Allen from getting poached by a bigger football program, the programs find themselves in opposite positions going into the 2021 Bucket Game, a game that was cancelled last year. Indiana is in the midst of their worst season in a decade, while with a win, Purdue would have their first 8 win regular season since 2006, and first 6 game conference season since the 2000 Rose Bowl team. How did Indiana fall off so quickly? Well, it seems Michael Penix Jr. was even more important to the offense than we thought he was. And then the defense, Tom Allen's calling card, hasn't been able to hold up getting absolutely nothing from the offense. It's not as bad as some of the standard numbers would suggest (#63 in SP+), but it's not as good as last year either, and certainly not good enough to cover up for this offense, the Big Ten's worst at #101 in SP+. Any of four quarterbacks, yes, Penix, again, could start for Indiana this week. Getting Stephen Carr back at running back would help some. He is clearly their best back, but hasn't played since getting hurt in the first quarter against Michigan. Tiawen Mullen, who might be the best cornerback in the conference when healthy, might also play. He has only played in one game (Maryland) in conference play. The Hoosiers could certainly use him, because Purdue is going to pass, defensive scheme be damned. Here though, it makes sense, neutralizing Micah McFadden, who has been Indiana's best player, a run stopping linebacker. Purdue continues to be the most pass happy team in the Big Ten, and one of just three Power 5 teams who pass more than 60% of the time, along with Virginia and Mississippi State. There's no reason to think Indiana has a shot here, other than the fact that it's a rivalry game, and Indiana has had nothing to play for for a month, except now the spoil Purdue's season. Even if Indiana has Mullen back, to put on David Bell, that won't be nearly enough.

PURDUE 31, INDIANA 13

Northwestern Wildcats (1-7, 3-8) at Illinois Fighting Illini (3-5, 4-7)

3:30 - Champaign, IL - BTN

These two teams are proof that not all bowl less seasons are created equally. Northwestern was coming off their second Big Ten Championship Game appearance in three seasons, got hammered on Friday night in the season opener, and haven't played a relevant game since. Illinois has the Nebraska win, the big upset of Penn State, and the season ruining upset of Minnesota. The end result isn't much, but if the Illini can cap it with a rivalry win, it's something to build on for Year 2 in 2022. Particularly if there aren't enough 6-6 teams, and the Illini can get into a bowl at 5-7. I believe Jerry Palm had them in at 5-7 in his most recent projections. Illinois wants to run the ball as much as humanly possible. They've found themselves down too many times to run the ball even as much as Bielema would like to, even though it's the 4th most often in the conference. No worries this week, as Northwestern can't run away from anyone. Both teams want to establish the run, dominate time of possession, and keep the score low. I have a hard time seeing the Illini falling behind by two scores in this game, even playing poorly, absent a string of turnovers. And hell, against this Wildcats' run defense, even if you are down two scores, running the ball might still be the better method to come back. But that also goes for Northwestern. They've found themselves behind multiple scores so often, so quickly, that they haven't been able to run their offense either. Illinois isn't running away from anyone. In that upset of Penn State, they scored 10 points; and against Minnesota, just 14. They seem to go as their defense goes. How that defense goes is anyone's guess. They gave up 10 to Penn State, and 3 to Minnesota. They even gave up 24 or less in four losses this year. But after jumping out to an early lead against Iowa last week, their defense let them down. On the whole they've been pretty good, and I think they have more to play for than Northwestern does at this point.

ILLINOIS 23, NORTHWESTERN 14

#14 Wisconsin Badgers (6-2, 8-3) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3, 7-4)

4:00 - Minneapolis, MN - FOX

Feels like not that long ago that Minnesota controlled their own destiny with regards to the Big Ten Championship Game, and Wisconsin was battling for bowl eligibility. Well, it's Thanksgiving weekend, and Wisconsin is back in control of the Division. Northwestern has grabbed the division twice, once in a COVID year, but nobody else has won it since Iowa six years ago. Minnesota has never won it, and the fact that they aren't playing for it this year is their own fault. Losing in Iowa City is forgivable. Losing at home to Illinois, when your defense gives up 14, isn't. The Gophers bounced back from a two game losing streak (their first two game divisional losing streak since 2017) with a dominant win over a reeling Indiana team last week. But now they try to win the Axe for just the second time in the past 18 years. The most Wisconsin thing ever is to have your starting running back transfer; you backup running back suffer a season ending injury, only to discover your #3 back is actually the most talented on the team. Braelon Allen has run for over 400 yards over the past two weeks, alone nearly twice as many yards as Minnesota has allowed the opposition this year. However, the Badgers will be the first opponent to average over 5 ypc that Minnesota has faced since the season opener, when Ohio State ran for 201...while not realizing Tre'Veyon Henderson was their best back. He was fourth on the team in carries in that game. Granted, for Wisconsin, they also haven't faced a defense this good against the run since Michigan, back in the first weekend of October. So has Wisconsin's run game actually figured it out, or have they stopped playing good run defenses? I'll buy the track record.

WISCONSIN 26, MINNESOTA 21

FearlessF · « **Reply #1 on:** November 23, 2021, 12:05:44 PM »

the stadium will be packed - weather forecast is good - 61 degrees, mostly sunny and 10mph wind

ticket prices will be up because the fans want to see the young QB in action

the only hope for the Huskers is if the Blackshirts can outperform the Hawk defense - at home there's a slim chance

advantage Hawkeyes - probably be a 1 score game because that's the way Brian Ferentz seems to like it.

spot on assessment, except I'm not sure of the 17 point margin

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #2 on:** November 23, 2021, 12:32:32 PM »

I don't see Iowa's offense scoring more than 14 pts. Perhaps their Def and special teams put up some points, but I'm not seeing the Hawks score 31. I also don't see Nebraska scoring more than 14. Iowa 21 - Neb 14.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #3 on:** November 23, 2021, 07:20:46 PM »

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on November 23, 2021, 12:32:32 PM

I don't see Iowa's offense scoring more than 14 pts. Perhaps their Def and special teams put up some points, but I'm not seeing the Hawks score 31. I also don't see Nebraska scoring more than 14. Iowa 21 - Neb 14.

Iowa special teams will score at least a field goal. Better up that to Iowa 24.

FearlessF · « **Reply #4 on:** November 23, 2021, 08:21:01 PM »

Ferentz loves field goals

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** November 24, 2021, 11:24:07 AM »

All early games, except GOTW in

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** November 25, 2021, 02:03:40 PM »

3:30 games in

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #7 on:** November 25, 2021, 02:06:46 PM »

Waiting for the big one ELA.

ELA · « **Reply #8 on:** November 26, 2021, 05:28:44 PM »

Everything but the GOTW in

ELA · « **Reply #9 on:** November 27, 2021, 10:18:10 AM »

No time, have to go coach flag football

Ohio State 31, Michigan 27

Cincydawg · « **Reply #10 on:** November 27, 2021, 10:20:52 AM »

I'm inkling a Michigan win, I don't know why. Michigan 38 Ohio State 35. Maybe in OT.

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Topic: ELA November 27 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 27 Breakdown

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