Hate starting this early, but whatever doesn't get done by tomorrow, won't be getting done, so here we go.
Iowa Hawkeyes (3-5, 6-5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-5, 4-7)
Friday @ 4:00 - Lincoln, NE - FS1
Just when I was starting to buy into this Friday afternoon game, as a new Big Ten tradition I actually liked, it seems like they are going to go ahead and move it in the future. Well, lets enjoy it now, even if last week didn't provide much hope that either of these teams have a whole lot in the tank. Iowa's increasingly stunning win over Ohio State went from catapulting the Hawkeyes into the College Football Playoff Rankings, to simply easing their mind that bowl eligibility isn't on the line in the finale. Should be fun to watch their suddenly inept offense take on Nebraska's long inept defense, which surrendered over 50 points last week, making it 3 times in 5 weeks they've done so. Credit to the Nebraska offense, which kept playing, taking on three scores in the final quarter, including two in the final 80 seconds, for a 56-44 final that resembled a late 2000s Big Ten basketball score. The Huskers defensive front is awful, teams are running the ball at will on them right now. Minnesota and Penn State (who had been struggling to run the ball in Big Ten play) have combined for 670 rushing yards over the past two weeks against Nebraska. The Nittany Lions put up another 350 through the air, over 600 total. After his best performance of the season, in that win against Ohio State, Nathan Stanley has followed up with his two worst games of the year. Both Wisconsin and Purdue loaded up on Wadley, and held him to his two least productive days since 1.8 ypc against Michigan State back in September. They dared Stanley to beat them, and he couldn't, completing a dismal 42% of his passes, and taking over 35 yards in rushing yardage losses in both games. Fortunately for Iowa, even if Nebraska employs the same tactics, it's tough to see it working. Nebraska will test an Iowa back line that had been causing turnovers but didn't last week against Purdue, and couldn't seem to figure out how to cover Anthony Mahoungou, who had a career game against them. Sindelar is fine, but Lee has been outstanding, lost in the shuffle of a lost Nebraska season. Since he shook the interception bug, I think you can make a pretty strong argument he deserves Second Team All-Big Ten behind Barrett. He'll get his yards, but they are still struggling to run the ball, and as already mentioned, absolutely cannot stop the run. It's late November in the Big Ten, and that's a recipe for disaster.
IOWA 28, NEBRASKA 21
Indiana Hoosiers (2-6, 5-6) at Purdue Boilermakers (3-5, 5-6)
NOON - West Lafayette, IN - espn2
A rivalry game with a trophy on the line, both teams coming off their best performances of the season, playing for a bowl game? I'm sorry it doesn't have "playoff implications" which is seemingly all anyone seems to care about anymore, but I for one am really excited about this game, and half considered making it the Game of the Week. I think 2007, when Indiana finally broke through and got bowl eligible, was the last time I was actively looking forward to a Bucket Game like this. The Hoosiers got back to playing some defense last week. Yes, Rutgers struggles immensely on offense, but they had been looking better across the board as of late, and it's not like Purdue is an offensive juggernaut themselves, 12th in the conference at 19 ppg. They are showing more signs of life the past two weeks though, with senior Anthony Mahoungou looking like the reliable wideout that Purdue was missing all year. It wasn't just the Hoosiers that can be proud of their defensive performance last week. In the second half, Purdue forced Iowa into three and outs on 3 of their first four possessions, and then caused on interception. Even the one score they did allow, they forced Iowa to take 11 plays to go merely 45 yards in a two score game with under 4 minutes to play. It's amazing how much better the Purdue defense looks when they aren't getting off the field, just to turn right back around and go on. Converting 7 of 15 3rd downs continues a trend in the right direction for a team that was one of the worst nationally prior to that. For Indiana, it wasn't just limiting Rutgers to 190 yards of total offense, it was winning the turnover battle, a major victory for a squad that was dead last in that category in the Big Ten. Indiana looked better last week, but Purdue has looked consistently better over the past few weeks, the offense starting to limit a lot of the drive killing mistakes from earlier in the year that led to Purdue being near the top of the conference in total offense, but near the bottom in scoring offense.
PURDUE 28, INDIANA 20
#5 Wisconsin Badgers (8-0, 11-0) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-6, 5-6)
3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - ABC
After turning it on over the final 20 game minutes, Wisconsin can now focus on Ohio State, a Big Ten championship, and a likely College Football Playoff bid...assuming they can handle Minnesota again, as they have 13 consecutive times. The Gophers ruined an undefeated season for the Badgers in 1993, and would like to do so again, however it seems unlikely. The series hasn't just been one sided, the games themselves have been lopsided, with Minnesota failing to stay within single digits since 2009. For Minnesota to have a shot, it seems like Wisconsin would have to get caught looking ahead. While that is always possible, Wisconsin finished against Minnesota prior to 3 of their 4 Big Ten Championship Game appearances, and won those 3 games by an average of 17 points. Minnesota broke out two weeks ago in an offensive explosion against what has become the worst defense in the Big Ten in Nebraska, but any hopes that they had finally figured things out were put to rest last week when they were held to 182 yards, and only 7 first downs, to 5 turnovers, in a shutout loss at Northwestern. Demry Croft can be effective when Minnesota is making things happen on the ground, but when they don't, he is a huge liability. Absolutely nothing is working against this monster Wisconsin defense right now, leading the conference in ypp allowed both on the ground (2.5 ypc) and through the air (5.4 ypa). For their part, only Rutgers and Nebraska are surrendering more yards per carry than Minnesota. So you want to beat Wisconsin, but you can't stop the run? Good luck with that. The question here isn't whether Wisconsin will win, but by how much. It's almost impossible to imagine an undefeated Big Ten champion being left out of the playoffs, but to strengthen the resume, they may want to avoid the type of ugly win that the committee doesn't like. It's a rivalry game, and I think Minnesota still has enough fight left in them to prevent getting their doors blown off. Plus, considering the already mounting injury report, with Ohio State to follow, I wouldn't be surprised if Chryst starts pulling guys in the third quarter.
WISCONSIN 35, MINNESOTA 13
#10 Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2, 9-2) at Maryland Terrapins (2-6, 4-7)
3:30 - College Park, MD - BTN
I'm sure the Penn State offense enjoyed getting back to form last week against a Nebraska defense that couldn't even put up a resistance. Well, now they get the only defense surrendering more points per game in conference play than Nebraska, Maryland. The Terps defense was all too happy to see the snow roll in last week, after surrendering 154 yards and 2 scores, on 3 drives through only a quarter of play. They were on pace for another 50+ point, 600+ yard day. Instead in bogged down into an unwatchable mess. The forecast for College Park is 60 and sunny for Saturday. Uh oh. Barkley's campaign is probably completely derailed at this point, barring Baker Mayfield embarrassing himself again on national television. But his slim hopes could use another monster game to finish up. Maryland's run defense had been decent, but a previously inept Spartan run game, ran all over them last week and they don't have anyone like Barkley. Barkley needs 304 yards over his final two games to become Penn State's all time leading rusher. I don't think he gets there Saturday, but I do think there is a conscious effort to get him the ball as often as possible. Max Bortenschlager actually played pretty well late last week. He started 3-9 for 12 yards and a fumble in the first half, but in the second, with the Terps playing from behind, he was 10-16 for 109 yards. Granted that was against Michigan State's prevent defense, but he was missing plenty of open men earlier. Andy Buh is going to have to bring extra men early and often defensively. Penn State has too many weapons to think that their back seven can do anything in coverage, but the line has been a major question mark. Only Illinois has given up more sacks. Problem is nobody has recorded fewer sacks than Maryland. As bad as Penn State's line has been, it's clear Maryland still isn't getting there with four, so their only option is to sell out, leave their guys in single coverage, for hopefully less time. That may mean fewer sustained drives for Penn State, but probably quite a few big plays.
PENN STATE 38, MARYLAND 17
#16 Michigan State Spartans (6-2, 8-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-5, 4-7)
4:00 - Piscataway, NJ - FOX
Michigan State looked like they had put the previous week in the rear view mirror in a hurry. They scored touchdowns on two of their three first quarter drives, totaling 154 yards, and were inside the 1 on their fourth drive, looking to take a commanding 21-0 lead, on pace for over 600 yards of offense. Then the fumble, and the ship never righted. The Spartans never found the end zone again, and only had 135 more yards of offense the rest of the game. The defense was largely up to the task, holding Maryland to 66 yards and 3 first downs through three quarters, until they decided to employ the same garbage prevent defense that nearly cost them the Minnesota game too. While Mark Dantonio will likely win Big Ten Coach of the Year for Michigan State flipping 3-9 to possibly 9-3, but don't overlook the job Chris Ash has done, even if it ends at 4-8. This wasn't just the worst team in the Big Ten a year ago, they were 49-0 worse than Michigan State, the next worst team. They aren't setting the world on fire, but they have won three Big Ten games, been more or less competitive, and have a very good shot to finish .500 in the conference, returning home where they've played good ball. The road has continued to be a struggle, but Rutgers is riding a two game home winning streak. Michigan State has had all sorts of problems on the road. Really, aside from the win in Ann Arbor, they've been bad on the road, losing to Northwestern, getting crushed by Ohio State, and nearly blowing a big lead at Minnesota. The question is whether Rutgers can do anything against a Michigan State defense that has largely been great. When they've struggled, they've struggled badly; against Notre Dame, Ohio State and Northwestern. Three teams that spread the Spartans out and exploited athletic mismatches. Rutgers can't do that at all. Janarion Grant is a mismatch for any defense, but they simply can't get him the ball. Against Michigan they resorted to running the wildcat, and while he did break one 65 yard touchdown, he was held to 1.5 ypc on his other carries. They have to get the ball to him, but he's much more dangerous out in the open in one on one, than trying to make something happen behind the line. Unless the Rutgers passing attack, averaging a Big Ten worst 95 ypg can flip something, it's tough to see them moving the ball with any consistency, or hitting enough big plays to compensate.
MICHIGAN STATE 31, RUTGERS 12
#22 Northwestern Wildcats (6-2, 8-3) at Illinois Fighting Illini (0-8, 2-9)
4:00 - Champaign, IL - FS1
Quick! Aside from Wisconsin who has the longest winning streak in the Big Ten? It's Northwestern, and really, it's not close. Northwestern, as usual, has bounced back from a slow start, and rattled off six straight wins. Nobody else in the conference is working on more than two. For it not to get to seven after this week would be quite the shock. Illinois put up 24 on Rutgers, but hasn't otherwise scored more than 17 in Big Ten play, averaging 12 ppg ovr the past four weeks. During those four weeks, since they only put up 10 in regulation against Iowa, Northwestern is averaging 33 ppg. The key is that they've started protecting Thorson, and when he's got time, he has shown remarkable improvement. At one point Northwestern had given up the most sacks in the conference, and now they sit at 8th. Not overall outstanding, but that shows how few they've allowed in recent weeks, particularly since 40% of those sacks came in one game in early October against Wisconsin before the problem was fixed. Thorson is sitting 4th, behind McSorley, Lee and Barrett, at 228.4 ppg. Only gripe, considering the style he's playing in, is a 59% completion rate. It's the final week of the season, and the most disappointing thing for Illinois fans might be that they still haven't even found their footing heading into the 2018 offseason. I can't even tell you who will be playing quarterback on Saturday. Once 2017 went down the toilet, the search should have been on for stability towards 2018, but instead the program seems aimeless, which might even be worse than just being bad. Yes, the schedule for Northwestern has gotten easier. They got Wisconsin and Penn State early, and didn't have to play Ohio State. But this win streak isn't 100% about scheduling. Yes, they won three straight games in overtime. But they put together their most complete game of the year last week in totally shutting down a Minnesota team that was coming in with some momentum off of a big win against Nebraska. The Wildcats have owned this rivalry lately, taking four of five. That may be more a product of Northwestern's annual tradition of playing like crap in September, and slowly improving all year long and be peaking for rivalry weekend than any sort of mental edge on Illinois. But for whatever reason, they are peaking right now. And Illinois looks like a team ready to just be done with this season. A win here, and Northwestern is looking pretty good for a Citrus Bowl bid.
NORTHWESTERN 35, ILLINOIS 12
*****BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK*****
#9 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1, 9-2) at Michigan Wolverines (5-3, 8-3)
NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX
The teams are a combined 17-5, but ask fans of either and it's tough to think any are satisfied with the season they've had. Ohio State had national title aspirations, and it would now take a minor miracle to even have a shot. Michigan fans expected a rebuild season, but 9 wins still felt like a floor, hoping they could pull off an upset in one of their three showcase games. Two in, and neither was particularly close. But when Michigan was struggling in mediocrity in the mid-90s, they made their seasons by ruining Ohio State's. They've had plenty of chances to do that again over the past decade, but haven't been able to. First of all, Michigan needs a healthy Peters. We've seen enough John O'Korn to know there's nothing there. O'Korn has been given plenty of chances, and has proven he's not up to it. So let's work with the caveat that Peters is starting. Even with a healthy Peters, this is still an offense built around the running game. They had been showing progress once the staff finally showed that they figured out what the rest of us had, that Higdon needed to be the focal point, with Evans as a scary change of pace. Michigan's defense should be relatively up to the task against Ohio State's offense, but how relatively will that be. Even the most optimistic Michigan fan knows they can't get into a shootout with the Buckeyes. Nor do they think they can shut Ohio State down. They need to make splash plays. Sacks and turnovers. You get Barrett in obvious passing downs, you have a shot. Better yet, you turn him over. What Michigan can do, that nobody else Ohio State has faced could, is generate pressure with four. Ohio State makes you think you have to blitz them, and then kill you in one on one mismatches. Michigan can get there with four. Then it's on Don Brown to prove he's learned something from the Penn State game. If he's worth his salt, he has.
MICHIGAN 28, OHIO STATE 27
