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Topic: ELA November 13 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 11, 2021, 10:22:25 AM »

#6 Michigan Wolverines (5-1, 8-1) at Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3, 6-3)

NOON - State College, PA - ABC

Penn State saw life without Sean Clifford. They saw life with a well under 100% Sean Clifford. James Franklin decided that was no way to live. While he has benefitted from supreme talents during his time in Happy Valley, with Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders, this is now two years in a row where the Nittany Lions have been unable to run the ball. Last year the running back room was gutted by injuries, so it was explainable. This year? Now we've got a problem. It was clear from the second half of the Iowa game, and the entirety of the Illinois game, that this offense simply cannot work without working through Sean Clifford. James Franklin has adjusted accordingly. On the season, Penn State is only running the ball about 44.8% of the time, in the bottom 20 nationally. Only above Maryland and Purdue in conference. Recently, they've dialed that down to just 38.5% over the past two games, sixth lowest in the FBS. I'm not sure how the defense holds up, if Michigan pounds away with Hassan Haskins for 4 and 5 yard chunks, on 12 play drives, holding the ball for 8 minutes, and then the offense comes out throwing the ball around, and going three and out, or hitting Jahan Dotson for quick touchdowns, as they beat Maryland with. The biggest concern for the Michigan offense is the health of their running backs, which was so deep going into the year, that Zach Charbonnet left to go star for UCLA. After Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards got banged up, it's unclear the status of either going into this week, and exactly how much of the workload Haskins can handle. Haskins tied a caeer high with 27 carries last week against Indiana, but he didn't have any meaningful 4th quarter carries. Behind him is Tavierre Dunlap perhaps? The freshman got a pair of carries last week, but has only 7 for his career, the previous 5 coming against Northern Illinois, when he did have a 28 yard run. The Nittany Lions run defense held their own against an Ohio State offense which is second in the conference with 5.3 ypc. Ohio State's run chart looks like a Barry Sanders log; 2, -1, 4, 2, 2, 72. Michigan is going to look much more like Illinois, 5, 6, 4, 7, 5, etc... If Corum is healthy, I think Michigan can win by two scores, but if he's out, in Happy Valley, although not at night, I think the Nittany Lions hang around, but give up too many 3rd down conversions.

MICHIGAN 23, PENN STATE 21

Northwestern Wildcats (1-5, 3-6) at #18 Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 6-3)

NOON - Madison, WI - espn2

I was too slow to Wisconsin being worse than I thought to start the year, and I think I've been too slow to get back on the bandwagon. In three weeks, Bucky has gone from having their fan base concerned they were going to miss a bowl game for the first time in 20 years, to controlling their own destiny in the West. Do they have enough offense to beat whoever comes out of the East? I'm not sure, but they pretty clearly appear to at least have enough now to not be completely wasting the nation's second best defense. On paper, this looks like another slaughter, but somehow, Northwestern seems to give Wisconsin absolute fits. They've won 4 of the past 7, and are 8-7 against Wisconsin this century. It's not outstanding numbers, but I would bet that is the best of any of their West Division foe. So after Minnesota's slip up against Illinois moved the Badgers up into a first place tie, can the Wisconsin staff keep the team from looking past the Cats? If they do, Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense. If the Badgers fall back into being that team in the first half of the season who was at the bottom of the FBS in turnovers, Northwestern has a chance. Wisconsin's offense went from looking mediocre to looking bad, simply because they didn't have enough margin for error to afford the turnovers. Northwestern's terrible run defense is discussed almost weekly here. But when you play in the Big Ten West, have crossover games against Michigan and Michigan State, and you can't stop the run, well that's going to be a weekly discussion point every single week that you aren't playing Purdue. The Wildcats' numbers have trended slightly up the past couple games, but that has been more due to Rutgers and Iowa's inability to run the ball. I truly think Joe Rudolph will only let Graham Mertz throw the ball out of sympathy, both for him, and for Northwestern. I think Wisconsin could win this game without putting the ball in the air once.

WISCONSIN 31, NORTHWESTERN 9

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-5, 4-5) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-6, 2-7)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - BTN

Fresh off their best season since the 1967 Rose Bowl team, Indiana is back to playing nothing but spoiler in November a year later. The inevitable loss last week at Michigan officially eliminated the Hoosiers from postseason consideration, where they were going for their first three year bowl streak since Bill Mallory coached Anthony Thompson from 1986-1988. First up on their spoiler tour is Rutgers, who is trying to end their own 7 year bowl drought. The Scarlet Knights need to win two of their final three games, so while this wouldn't officially eliminate them, with a road game at Penn State next week, the easiest path is certainly a win this week, and then at home against Maryland in the finale. After going through periods of time where we thought a healthy Jack Tuttle was better than a less than 100% Michael Penix, and then the same with Donaven McCulley, it's clear this team needs Penix in there. He's seemingly been one week away for over a month. Is this the week? I'm done trying to guess, but McCulley came crashing back down to Earth last week. Yes, Michigan's defense is good, but 10-24 for 88 yards passing (3.7 ypa) and 14 carries for 37 yards (2.6 ypc), when 28 yards came on one carry, ain't gonna cut it. It's been a struggle all season for the Hoosier offense, but they list of defenses they've faced (Iowa, Cincinnati, PSU, UM, MSU, OSU) has been insane. When they played Maryland, things looked better. The only defense giving up more yards per play than Maryland is Rutgers. Even Wisconsin had nearly 600 yards of offense on them last week. Success is going to be contingent on getting to the quarterback, with the Hoosiers giving up sacks on 14% of their dropbacks over the past three games, easily the worst in the conference. On Rutgers' offense, it's really just worry about Bo Melton, and that's it. That has, at times, been enough to cause problems, as he missed the Ohio State and Michigan State games. This one is tough to call, simply due to the injuries. Penix was already mentioned, but #1 tailback Stephen Carr may also miss the game, and Rutgers' starting quarterback, Noah Vedral, was knocked out of the Wisconsin loss, and didn't return. Call this a tossup, and I'll give a 1 point edge to the home team, that will swing based on which of those three play, and how close to 100% they are.

INDIANA 21, RUTGERS 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2, 6-3) at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 7-2)

3:30 - Iowa City, IA - BTN

Everything was aligned this year for the Gophers to make their first trip to Indianapolis. Wisconsin dropped a pair of conference games in September, Minnesota had a senior quarterback, and already secured a win over their closest competition for the division title they had played to date (Purdue). Yes, they had a loss to Bowling Green. It was embarrassing, but unless you thought Minnesota was going to the Playoff, it really did nothing to impact their goals for the season. Then they went out and scored 6 points against Illinois. I have nothing against Wisconsin as a program, and no particular affinity for Minnesota. But I've seen the Ohio State-Wisconsin Conference Championship Game before. Just for a little diversity, I kind of want to see Minnesota or Purdue. Now Minnesota still has Iowa and Wisconsin on their schedule, but they have completely eliminated any room for error. So back to them scoring 6 points against Illinois. The Illini have the nation's #49 defense by SP+. Iowa is #3, and Wisconsin's #2 defense is two weeks away. So where are the points coming from? It has to start with getting the ground game going. The Illinois defense has been sneaky good (at times) against the run this season, and they were able to totally shut down a Minnesota run game which had weathered the loss of their top three running backs thanks to an elite run blocking line. Against the Illini, they mustered just 89 yards on 2.5 yards per carry. The whole offense fell apart around that. Tanner Morgan, who had been playing better, without the threat of play action, and short sticks, averaged just 6.7 ypa, with no touchdowns and 2 picks, his worst TD:INT ratio since...well, the Bowling Green game. It doesn't help that that great run blocking offensive line, is terrible in pass protection, particularly in obvious passing downs, where they rank #113 in sack rate on passing downs. The one upside is that the one thing Iowa's defense doesn't really do, is get after the quarterback. They are 93rd in the FBS in sack rate, at just 5.31%, and over the past three games, it drops to 3.54%. However, it's not like the Iowa offense is in much better shape though. Last week the Hawkeyes were back to their September turnover games, at +3 against NORTHWESTERN, and still only scored 17 points, and were outgained by the Cats. Tyler Goodson had his best game since they beat Kent, but nobody is buying that fool's gold. What I am buying is Alex Padilla, who came on to replace Spencer Petras, and looked good. Some of his throws were NFL good throws, and with a full week of first team reps, I think Ferentz has to turn to him. Throw in the fact that Chris Autman-Bell appears to be out for Minnesota, and I think Iowa can stack that box, force Tanner Morgan into situations where he gets turnover prone, and put their offense in favorable situations.

IOWA 24, MINNESOTA 14

Maryland Terrapins (2-4, 5-4) at #7 Michigan State Spartans (5-1, 8-1)

4:00 - East Lansing, MI - FOX

If your view was College Football Playoff or bust as a Michigan State fan, I don't think last week changed anything. The situation remains the same, you beat Ohio State, go to the CCG, and win, you are in. Otherwise you are out. The difference is in the wiggle room for any consolation prize. You get to 10-2, likely playing in a New Years Six bowl. 9-3, you fall into the crapshoot, where you have no idea, and you end up playing in the Las Vegas Bowl, because you haven't been there in a while. Maryland has enough playmakers on offense you can't fall asleep against them. You would think getting their first loss would refocus Michigan State, but everyone saw that upset coming, and the Spartans said all the right thing. The issue now seems to be injuries consolidating at a couple positions, positions that Michigan State could not afford. Jalen Nailor in a cast got most of the attention, because as the #2 receiver, he's a known name. The bigger problem is the Spartans now appear to be down the entire left side of their offensive line, and both starting cornerbacks, almost certainly already the two weakest positions on the team. For good measure the kicker is also out. Maryland obviously has no George Karlaftis (few do) to exploit the reserve linemen, but the Terps can absolutely pick on the backup cornerbacks, as Aidan O'Connell did, for 536 yards on 74% completions. Purdue leads the Big Ten in pass attempts per game, and percentage of plays that are passes. Maryland is second in both categories. If Taulia Tagovailoa can't have a 300+ yard game here, I don't think he'll do it again this year. If he doesn't do that, Maryland doesn't have a chance. Even if he does, it might not be enough. Purdue's defense played pretty well, and Michigan State still scored 29 points. Maryland has the Big Ten's second worst pass defense, second worst run defense, worst total defense, and worst scoring defense. The most concerning thing is how susceptible they are to the big play, and that has been Michigan State's bread and butter. They are surrendering 15 yards per completion, 3rd worst in the Power 5. If Tagovailoa can go off like O'Connell did last week, and which he has done a couple times recently, Maryland could win a shootout, but Purdue did also get just enough stops, which I don't think the Terps can do. Just in the past two weeks, Tagovailoa threw for 419 yards on 65% completions and beat Indiana at home by 3; and 371 yards on 72% and lost by 17 at Penn State. Winning will require something else working, either the run game or the defense, neither of which has thus far.

MICHIGAN STATE 37, MARYLAND 23

***GAME OF THE WEEK***

#19 Purdue Boilermakers (4-2, 6-3) at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 8-1)

3:30 - Columbus, OH - ABC

There were mutterings of the Spoilermakers going into the Iowa game, and once they pulled that off, the rumblings became so loud last week, you almost figured it was too obvious. Nope. They can't do it thrice in one season...right? These teams have not played each other since Rondale Moore went wild on Ohio State in a 49-20 upset three years ago. But in the nine years before that, Purdue won 3 of 6. Even Big Ten teams that have played Ohio State a lot more than 6 times since 2009, I would bet few to none have more than 3 wins, and I'm guessing none have a .500 winning percentage. Michigan State has won 3 of 10 (.300), Penn State 2 of 13 (.154), Wisconsin 1 of 10 (.100), and Michigan 1 of 11 (.091). The one thing those 3 Purdue wins had in common? They were all in West Lafayette. Purdue has not won in Columbus since 1988, nine straight losses. Ohio State is well aware of Aidan O'Connell, but it's not like he was sneaking up on anyone previously. Michigan State knew Purdue wasn't going to run, and they still couldn't stop him. Yes, Michigan State is last in the Big Ten in pass defense, but Ohio State is giving up 234 passing yards per game in Big Ten play, and really, even after last week, their per play numbers look pretty similar to the Spartans. Big Ten opponents are completing 63.2% of their passes against Ohio State, compared to 64.2% against Michigan State; 6.9 ypa to 7.0 ypa. And they rank 8th and 9th in the Big Ten in defensive passing efficiency. The problem is I'm not sure Purdue's defense can do enough against arguably the nation's best offense. The Boilermakers are 2nd in the Big Ten in passing efficiency, but Ohio State is 1st...and the gap between them is larger than the gap between Purdue and Illinois, who is 13th. The only passing attack Purdue has played that ranks in the top half of the conference is Nebraska. And Adrian Martinez threw for 269 yards, his third highest mark of the season, Purdue just picked him off 4 times. C.J. Stroud has only thrown 3 interceptions total in conference play, the second best rate in the conference.

OHIO STATE 35, PURDUE 21

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** November 12, 2021, 09:04:44 AM »

NOon games all in

Cincydawg · « **Reply #2 on:** November 12, 2021, 09:07:05 AM »

How is it that a team can look so bad initially and then suddenly "wake up"?

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** November 12, 2021, 10:05:07 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 12, 2021, 09:07:05 AM

How is it that a team can look so bad initially and then suddenly "wake up"?

I assume you mean Wisconsin?

Their defense was always this. The offense stopped turning the ball over at the same rate

MrNubbz · « **Reply #4 on:** November 12, 2021, 10:16:51 AM »

UW been ballin' lately

Mdot21 · « **Reply #5 on:** November 12, 2021, 10:21:35 AM »

Quote from: ELA on November 12, 2021, 10:05:07 AM

I assume you mean Wisconsin?

Their defense was always this. The offense stopped turning the ball over at the same rate

Yup.

They have the best defense and DC in the conference imo. Leonhard should be a HC candidate for every P5 job that has an opening. USC, LSU, etc. should look at him, but they won't. Everyone wants to go for the "big name" or the flavor of the moment hire.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #6 on:** November 12, 2021, 10:28:33 AM »

A friend always watches Joel Klatt and he made a good point about committee placement.Putting M in front of MSU or UW/Auburn in front of PSU - who beat both.Given the fact PSU lost it's QB basically for 2 straight games.But moving forward are those squads better?Gotta go with scoreboard in any tie breaker

ELA · « **Reply #7 on:** November 12, 2021, 11:26:47 AM »

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 12, 2021, 10:28:33 AM

A friend always watches Joel Klatt and he made a good point

I only read this far to know you need better friends

FearlessF · « **Reply #8 on:** November 12, 2021, 11:43:55 AM »

we all have known this for years

hell, Nubbz hangs out here with us

ELA · « **Reply #9 on:** November 12, 2021, 01:21:59 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2021, 11:43:55 AM

we all have known this for years

hell, Nubbz hangs out here with us

ELA · « **Reply #10 on:** November 12, 2021, 01:59:21 PM »

Whole week is in

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Topic: ELA November 13 Breakdown

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ELA November 13 Breakdown

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