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B1G-East:

• 6-0 Ohio State:  Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Penn State and still be assured of a spot in Indianapolis.  
• 5-1 Penn State:  Used their mulligan this weekend but still controls their own destiny.  If they win out they are assured of a spot in Indianapolis.  
• 4-2 Michigan:  Needs a lot of help.  They would lose any tie* involving Penn State so they can't get to Indianapolis without an epic collapse by the Nittany Lions.  
• 4-2 Indiana:  Needs a ton of help.  Even if they win in Happy Valley this weekend, go home and beat Michigan next weekend, then take the Oaken Bucket at Purdue on 11/30 they'll still only be 7-2 with a tiebreaking loss to Ohio State.  Even if Ohio State loses to both PSU and M that wouldn't be enough because IU would lose the two-way tie with tOSU and they would lose a three way tie* with tOSU and PSU so they can't get to Indianapolis without an epic collapse by the Buckeyes.  
• 2-4 MSU, 1-6 UMD, and 0-6 RU are mathematically eliminated.  

The ties:
Michigan would lose a two-way tie with PSU due to H2H.  In the event of a three-way tie with PSU and tOSU the Buckeyes would be eliminated based on divisional record and PSU would beat Michigan based on H2H.  

Indiana would lose a two-way tie with tOSU due to H2H.  In the event of a three-way tie with PSU and tOSU all three would be 1-1 against each other (tOSU>IU>PSU>tOSU) and the Nittany Lions would win based on their superior divisional record.  

A four-way tie at 7-2 is NOT mathematically possible because the Wolverines and Hoosiers already have two losses and still have to play each other.  

B1G-West:

• 6-0 Minnesota:  The Gophers have earned multiple mulligans and can lose all of their remaining games except Wisconsin and still be assured of a spot in Indianapolis.  
• 4-2 Wisconsin:  Wisconsin can't get back in the race unless they keep winning and Minnesota loses to either Iowa (this weekend in Iowa City) or Northwestern (next weekend in Evanston).  
• 4-3 Illinois:  The Illini are mathematically eliminated.  The Illini can't even tie for the B1G-W unless Minnesota loses out and even then they would lose a tie with Minnesota based on H2H.  See tiebreakers below.  
• 3-3 Iowa:   The Hawkeyes can't get to Indianapolis without an epic collapse by Minnesota and another epic collapse by Wisconsin.  
• 3-4 PU, 2-4 UNL, and 0-7 NU are all mathematically eliminated.  

Illinois and Iowa:
The Illinois/Iowa loser is mathematically eliminated.  However, if either team were to win out, they could finish 6-3 which could get them into a tie for the B1G-W with a lot of help.  

Illinois:

• They win out (@Iowa, vs NU)
• Minnesota loses out (@Iowa, @NU, vsUW)
• Wisconsin loses to either UNL or PU but beats MN

This creates a three-way tie atop the B1G-W at 6-3 between IL, MN, and UW.  They would all be 1-1 against each other (IL>UW>MN>IL).  The next tiebreaker is divisional record which Wisconsin would win.  Thus, the Illini are mathematically eliminated.  


Iowa:

• They win out (vs MN, vsIL, @UNL)
• Minnesota also loses their other two games (@NU, vsUW)
• Wisconsin beats Minnesota but loses at least one of their other two games (@UNL, vsPU)

This creates either a two-way tie between Iowa and Minnesota or a three-way tie between Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Iowa would win the two-way tie based on H2H.  In the event of a three-way tie all three would be 1-1 against each other (UW<IA<MN<UW) and Wisconsin would win that based on divisional record.  


Thus, the only way for Iowa to get to Indianapolis is for all of the following to happen:

• Iowa wins out (vsMN, vsIL, @UNL), and
• Minnesota to also lose their other two games (@NU, vsUW)
• Wisconsin to lose their other two games (@UNL, vPU).  

Bowl position*:

• 9-0 Ohio State:  clinched
• 9-0 Minnesota:  clinched
• 8-1 Penn State:  clinched
• 7-2 Indiana:  clinched
• 7-2 Michigan:  clinched
• 7-2 Wisconsin:  clinched
• 6-4 Illinois:  clinched
• 6-3 Iowa:  clinched
• 4-5 Michigan State:  The Spartans need two wins in their final three games (@M, @RU, vsUMD) so they should make it but they have no room for error.  
• 4-5 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers need two wins in their final three games (vUW, @UMD, vsIA) so their chances are not good.  
• 4-6 Purdue:  The Boilermakers' win over Northwestern keeps their hopes alive for at least another week but they need to win out (@UW, vsIU) so their chances are not good.  
• 3-7 Maryland, 2-7 Rutgers, and 1-8 Northwestern are eliminated.  

*On the above list I have ignored the possibility of a 5-7 team getting a waiver.  

Assuming OSU goes 13-0 and goes to the playoffs,  you got to figure Minny is close to a lock for the Rose Bowl.  Even if they drop 1 game to either Iowa or Wiscy, as long as they don't lose to both of them, they are headed to Pasedena.

If it comes down to 11-2 Minny vs 10-2 PSU, the Rose Bowl almost has to pick Minny due to its H2H  win against PSU.

Nebraska is scary bad this year. I could see Maryland giving them a game.

So if the Gophers win this Saturday night in Kinnick they're going to Indianapolis?

So if the Gophers win this Saturday night in Kinnick they're going to Indianapolis?

At that point Minny almost has it clinched.  Technically Minny would still need to beat NW the next week to officially clinch.

if they do all that then the Minn-Wisc won't matter as far as the division race goes.

If I had to guess....

CFP bowl. OSU 13-0
ROSE -  Minny 11-2
Cotton - PSU 10-2
Citrus -  Wiscy 9-3
Outback - Mich 9-3
Holiday -  Iowa 9-3
Gator - Indy 8-4
Pinstripe -  MSU 6-6
Redbox - ILL 7-5

Staying home
Neb 5-7
Pur 4-8

Of course the twist is what if PSU does not go to the Cotton?  Then PSU gets bumped to Outback.  Mich to Holiday.  Iowa to Redbox.  ILL to Pinstripe.  MSU to Quickline.

Just for fun:

A four way tie at 6-3 is still mathematically possible in the B1G-E but it is incredibly unlikely mostly because it would require Rutgers to beat both Ohio State (at home) and Penn State (on the road).  

Two things have to happen:

• Ohio State has to lose out (@RU, vsPSU, @M)
• Penn State has to lose their other two games (vsIU, vs RU)

Indiana and Michigan play each other so:

• The loser would have to win their other two games, and
• The winner would have to go 1-1 in their other two games.  
• Note from above, however, that Indiana has to beat PSU and Michigan has to beat tOSU so there are exactly two ways this could happen:

Hypothetical scenario #1:

• Ohio State loses out (@RU, vPSU, @M) and finishes 6-3 in conference, 3-3 in the division.  
• Penn State loses their other two games (vsIU, vsRU) and finishes 6-3 in conference, 4-2 in the division.  
• Michigan beats Indiana and loses to MSU to finish 6-3 in conference and 4-2 in the division.  
• Indiana beats Purdue to finish 6-3 in conference and 3-3 in the division.  

The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H and in this scenario:

• Penn State is 2-1 (beat M and tOSU, lost to IU)
• Michigan is 2-1 (beat tOSU and IU, lost to PSU)
• Ohio State is 1-2 (beat IU, lost to M and PSU)
• Indiana is 1-2 (beat PSU, lost to tOSU and M)

The rules stipulate that when only two teams are left, the winner of the game between those two goes so PSU would go to Indianapolis.  

Hypothetical scenario #2:

• Ohio State loses out (@RU, vPSU, @M) and finishes 6-3 in conference and 3-3 in the division.  
• Penn State loses their other two games (vsIU, vsRU) and finishes 6-3 in conference and 4-2 in the division.  
• Indiana beats Michigan and loses to Purdue to finish 6-3 in conference and 4-2 in the division.  
• Michigan beats MSU to finish 6-3 in conference and 4-2 in the division.  

The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H and in this scenario:

• Penn State is 2-1 (beat M and tOSU, lost to IU)
• Indiana is 2-1 (beat M and PSU, lost to tOSU)
• Ohio State is 1-2 (beat IU, lost to PSU and M)
• Michigan is 1-2 (beat tOSU, lost to PSU and IU)

The rules stipulate that when only two teams are left, the winner of the game between those two goes so IU would go to Indianapolis.