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Topic: Divisional races after week 8

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medinabuckeye1

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Divisional races after week 8
« on: October 24, 2022, 11:15:30 AM »
We'll start, as usual, with the simpler B1G-E:

Practically Penn State has to beat tOSU this weekend to stay in the race. If they do, it is a three team race between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions. If Ohio State wins this weekend then, for all practical purposes it is a two team race.

Mathematically all teams are still in the race but mathematical eliminations will commence this weekend provided that the top teams win or the bottom teams lose.

The B1G-W is much more complex:
The top-3:

  • 3-1 Illinois is  easily in the best position both because they only have one loss and because their one loss was non-divisional (Indiana). They control their own destiny. 
  • 3-2 Purdue controls their own destiny because they beat Nebraska and have yet to play Illinois. Thus, if Purdue wins out they'll be 7-2 and no worse than tied with the IL/UNL winner whom they beat.
  • 2-2 Nebraska lost to Purdue and has yet to play Illinois so they need a Purdue loss but other than that they control their own destiny. 
The other four teams in the division each have three losses so they each need help but none of them are altogether out of the running. 

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2022, 12:20:11 PM »
Barring a MAJOR upset or a series of them, Penn State's best chance in the B1G-E would be for the home teams to win all games between tOSU, M, and PSU, ie:

  • Michigan beat PSU in Ann Arbor 
  • PSU needs to beat tOSU in Happy Valley 
  • tOSU would need to beat M in Columbus. 

If that happened and the teams won the rest of their games then the tiebreaker would be the records of their B1G-W opponents. So far:
Michigan, 6-6:
  • 3-1 Illinois 
  • 2-2 Nebraska 
  • 1-3 Iowa
Penn State, 5-8:
  • 3-2 Purdue 
  • 1-3 Minnesota 
  • 1-3 Northwestern 

Ohio State, 4-9:
  • 2-3 Wisconsin 
  • 1-3 Iowa
  • 1-3 Northwestern 

A few weeks ago this looked like a winning formula for Penn State but at this point I think it looks good for Michigan. 
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ELA

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2022, 03:58:20 PM »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2022, 04:05:59 PM »
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FearlessF

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2022, 04:09:49 PM »
Sickos
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Cincydawg

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2022, 04:11:29 PM »
Would every team claim a divisional crown?
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FearlessF

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2022, 04:15:50 PM »
they could, I wouldn't

there are tie breakers for a reason
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Mdot21

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2022, 09:55:58 PM »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2022, 10:07:41 PM »


There couldn't possibly still be a path to a Rutgers-Northwestern final. 

Could there? 
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MarqHusker

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2022, 10:54:48 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 24, 2022, 04:15:50 PM
they could, I wouldn't

there are tie breakers for a reason
See 1994 SWC, 5 way Tie!
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MrNubbz

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2022, 11:37:57 PM »
I was told there'd be no math
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LittlePig

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2022, 08:58:45 AM »
As long as we are dreaming,  we might as well have 4-8 NW beat the 12-0 East champion and go to the Rose Bowl.
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ohio1317

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2022, 09:31:43 AM »
I'd say claim the divisional crown.  I've always been of the view, if you don't want to share a title, then win enough so you don't have to.  The tie-breaker is for the conference championship and that is enough of a prize all by itself.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Divisional races after week 8
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2022, 09:41:22 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on October 25, 2022, 08:58:45 AM
As long as we are dreaming,  we might as well have 4-8 NW beat the 12-0 East champion and go to the Rose Bowl.
Make it even more convoluted and give the CFP committee a real headache by assuming:
  • Penn State wins out to finish 11-1 with a win over tOSU and a loss to Michigan.
  • Ohio State loses to Penn State but otherwise wins out to finish 11-1 with a loss to Penn State and a win over Michigan.
  • Michigan wins their next four then loses to Ohio State to finish the regular season 11-1. Michigan then wins the three-way tiebreaker with tOSU and PSU and goes to Indy where they lose to sub .500 Northwestern. Thus, Michigan finishes 11-2 with a win over PSU and back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Northwestern.

At 5-8 the Wildcats are obviously not a CFP contender so they go to the RoseBowl. The B1G then has three potential playoff teams:
  • 11-2 B1G-E Champion Michigan: In Michigan's favor they have a blowout win over PSU and they won the tiebreaker and went to the B1GCG. To their detriment they are on a two game skid and lost to a bad team in the CG.
  • 11-1 B1G-E co-Champion Ohio State. In Ohio State's favor they just beat Michigan but to their detriment they did lose to PSU.
  • 11-1 B1G-E co-Champion Penn State. In Penn State's favor they have a win over tOSU but to their detriment they got blown out by Michigan.

Ordinarily the team that lost the CG would have the argument that making the CG gave them a tougher schedule but in this case that doesn't really apply especially considering that in the above scenario both PSU and tOSU would have beaten Northwestern in the regular season. Michigan's loss to them would be pretty much inexcusable.

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