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Topic: December 8 CFP rankings

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medinabuckeye1

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December 8 CFP rankings
« on: December 08, 2020, 09:45:38 PM »

  • 9-0 Bama:  @Ark, vs #6 UF in SECCG
  • 10-0 ND:  vs #3 Clemson in ACCCG
  • 9-1 Clemson:  vs #3 ND in ACCCG
  • 5-0 tOSU:  ?, TBD (likely either #14 NU or #16 IA)
  • 7-1 aTm:  @TN
  • 8-1 UF:  vs LSU, vs #1 Bama in SECCG
  • 8-2 ISU:  vs #11 OU in B12CG
  • 8-0 Cincy:  vs #24 Tulsa in AACCG
  • 6-2 UGA:  @ #25 Mizzou, vs Vandy
  • 8-1 Miami:  vs #17 UNC, vs GaTech
  • 7-2 OU:  @WVU, vs #7 ISU in B12CG
  • 6-1 IU:  vs PU, TBD
  • 10-0 CCU:  @ Troy, vs #19 UL in SunBeltCG
  • 5-1 NU:  vs IL, vs TBD in B1GCG
  • 4-0 USC:  @ UCLA then (if they win or CO also loses) vs TBD in P12CG
  • 5-2 Iowa:  vs UW, TBD
  • 7-3 UNC:  @ #10 Miami
  • 9-1 BYU:  vs SDSU
  • 9-1 UL:  @ #13 CCU
  • 6-3 TX:  @ Kansas
  • 4-0 CO:  vs UT then (if they win and USC loses) vs TBD in P12CG
  • 6-3 OkSU:  @ Baylor
  • 8-3 NCST:  Regular season complete
  • 6-1 Tulsa:  vs #8 Cincy in AACCG
  • 5-3 Mizzou:  vs #9 UGA, @ MissSt

As I see it the only reasonably plausible CFP contenders left are:
  • 9-0 #1 Bama:  The Tide are a lock if they win the SECCG (even if they do somehow lose to Ark first) and have a very good shot with an SECCG loss provided they don't also lose to Ark.  
  • 10-0 #2 ND:  The Irish are clearly in if they beat Clemson in the ACCCG and not guaranteed out if they lose particularly if it is close.  
  • 9-1 #3 Clemson:  The Tigers are a lock if they beat ND in the ACCCG and almost certainly out if they lose.  
  • 5-0 #4 tOSU:  I believe that the Buckeyes are a lock if they are an undefeated B1G Champion but anything less than that will have tOSU fans sweating things out depending on how the other games go.  
  • 7-1 #5 aTm:  As good as being #5 looks, I think that aTm needs help.  Either ND or Clemson must necessarily lose but if it is ND there is no guarantee that aTm would pass them.  If UF upsets Bama the Aggies are screwed because they'd be behind both.  I don't think they can pass tOSU without tOSU losing or at least looking REALLY bad in a close win and they could get jumped by a team close behind them winning a league title which aTm can't do.  
  • 8-1 #6 UF:  Just win baby!  If the Gators win out they are a lock.  Anything less than that and they are out.  

That is it.  I don't think any other team has a realistic shot.  

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bayareabadger

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2020, 09:58:50 PM »
Me: Rankings are stupid and silly and this is all just TV product

Also me: HOW DARE THEY PUT THAT TRASH MIZZOU TEAM IN THERE!!!
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2020, 09:58:50 PM »
It's truly a bizarro world with a 2-loss Iowa State ranked ahead of a 1-loss Miami and 2-loss UGA
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bayareabadger

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2020, 10:01:08 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 08, 2020, 09:58:50 PM
It's truly a bizarro world with a 2-loss Iowa State ranked ahead of a 1-loss Miami and 2-loss UGA
In what sense? Just the normal helmet logic?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2020, 10:05:07 PM »
Yeah.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2020, 10:20:49 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 08, 2020, 10:01:08 PM
In what sense? Just the normal helmet logic?
The internal logic of their own rankings:
  • ISU lost to their #19 UL and unranked OkSU
  • UGA lost to #1 Bama and #6 UF
  • Miami lost to #3 Clemson

Look at the losses of the other top teams:
  • #3 Clemson lost to #2 ND
  • #5 aTm lost to #1 Bama
  • #6 UF lost to #5 aTm
  • #9 UGA lost to #1 Bama and #6 UF
  • #10 Miami lost to #3 Clemson
  • #11 OU lost to #7 ISU and unranked KSU
  • #12 IU lost to #4 tOSU
  • #14 NU lost to unranked MSU
  • #16 IA lost to #14 NU and unranked PU

IMHO both ISU and OU are overrated.  OU might actually be that good  NOW, but their whole season is not that good.  I also think IU is underrated based on their internal logic.  Their one loss is better than either of OU's two losses and falls between UGA's two losses.  


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bayareabadger

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2020, 10:38:48 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 08, 2020, 10:20:49 PM
The internal logic of their own rankings:
  • ISU lost to their #19 UL and unranked OkSU
  • UGA lost to #1 Bama and #6 UF
  • Miami lost to #3 Clemson

Look at the losses of the other top teams:
  • #3 Clemson lost to #2 ND
  • #5 aTm lost to #1 Bama
  • #6 UF lost to #5 aTm
  • #9 UGA lost to #1 Bama and #6 UF
  • #10 Miami lost to #3 Clemson
  • #11 OU lost to #7 ISU and unranked KSU
  • #12 IU lost to #4 tOSU
  • #14 NU lost to unranked MSU
  • #16 IA lost to #14 NU and unranked PU

IMHO both ISU and OU are overrated.  OU might actually be that good  NOW, but their whole season is not that good.  I also think IU is underrated based on their internal logic.  Their one loss is better than either of OU's two losses and falls between UGA's two losses. 



Ehhh. I hate using the quality of loss as a base. UGA's wins are ... meh. 

Miami's best win is, maybe N.C. State? ISU at least has three wins against ranked teams.

Granted, assembling all this off these few games is kinda silly. Everyone is gonna have so-so records. I'll just use SP+ and FEI, tweak and adjust around results. 
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FearlessF

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2020, 10:51:47 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 08, 2020, 09:58:50 PM
It's truly a bizarro world with a 2-loss Iowa State ranked ahead of a 1-loss Miami and 2-loss UGA
took a long time for the stars to align weirdly for the Cyclones
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2020, 11:12:49 PM »
One way to get around CMC's inability to win the CyHawk. Don't play for it. 
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Hawkinole

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2020, 02:27:49 AM »
Is there a way ISU could sneak in? I know it is illogical, ISU is a 2-loss team, so is Iowa. If ISU hadn't lost in an upset to Louisiana Lafeyette, n/k/a Louisiana, early . . . just think.
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utee94

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2020, 08:19:38 AM »
Quote from: Hawkinole on December 09, 2020, 02:27:49 AM
Is there a way ISU could sneak in? I know it is illogical, ISU is a 2-loss team, so is Iowa. If ISU hadn't lost in an upset to Louisiana Lafeyette, n/k/a Louisiana, early . . . just think.
Yeah I don't know.  They have two losses, one is a really bad one, and they're not a helmet.  I think it would take a lot of weird to get them in but I guess ya never know.

But I think OU is going to beat them-- pretty handily-- in the rematch, so I don't think it matters.  The Sooners are playing much better football now, than they were at the beginning of the season.
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bayareabadger

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2020, 09:16:01 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 09, 2020, 08:19:38 AM
Yeah I don't know.  They have two losses, one is a really bad one, and they're not a helmet.  I think it would take a lot of weird to get them in but I guess ya never know.

But I think OU is going to beat them-- pretty handily-- in the rematch, so I don't think it matters.  The Sooners are playing much better football now, than they were at the beginning of the season.
It would take a lot for a 2-loss team to get in. Even if I think they’re a very good team and the losses aren’t THAT bad, top 4 is a HIGH bar.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2020, 09:27:43 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 09, 2020, 08:19:38 AM
Yeah I don't know.  They have two losses, one is a really bad one, and they're not a helmet.  I think it would take a lot of weird to get them in but I guess ya never know.

But I think OU is going to beat them-- pretty handily-- in the rematch, so I don't think it matters.  The Sooners are playing much better football now, than they were at the beginning of the season.
I'm with you on almost all of this.  

One big problem for ISU, IMHO, is that UL is hanging around at 9-1 and #19.  Louisiana has #13 CCU in the SunBeltCG.  If they win that they'll finish 10-1 and Sun Belt Champs with a three point loss to CCU, a quality win over CCU, AND at 17 point road win over ISU.  I'm not sure how you put ISU ahead of a team that has a better record, is also a conference champion, and beat them H2H by three scores.  

Teams that absolutely cannot pass:
  • The SEC Champs
  • The ACC Champs
Teams they can't pass without, as @utee94 said, "a lot of weird":
  • aTm - Because the ONLY way would be if aTm lost to TN and even then it would be questionable).  
  • The B1G Champs - Because unlikely even if it is an "and one" IU or NU and definitively not if it is an undefeated tOSU.  
  • The ACCCG loser - This is either 10-1 ND or 9-2 Clemson.  ISU might pass a two-loss non-champion Clemson but even that is doubtful.  
  • The SECCG loser - They absolutely would NOT pass a 1-loss Bama but even a 2-loss UF would have MUCH better losses (Bama and aTm) and comparable quality wins.  
  • Ohio State if they miss the B1GCG but finish undefeated anyway - This would REALLY suck for ISU because it would raise the possibility that they wind up behind two B1G teams along with, potentially, two ACC teams and three SEC teams.  

FWIW:
I think OU is a much better team right now but I don't think they can get there either because their losses (ISU and KSU) and will only get worse if they beat ISU the second time around.  
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utee94

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Re: December 8 CFP rankings
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2020, 12:57:15 PM »
Oh yeah, I think it would be tough to put OU in at this point, sitting at two losses.  

I will say I think OU is playing well enough now, potentially to deserve that #4 spot over the aggies and probably some other teams that might be considered for it.  I don't think OU would beat Alabama, Clemson, or tOSU, but I do think they might be better than all the other teams at play.  And that's not a dis to the ags, they're playing legitimately good football right now. I just don't think they're as good as OU at this point.  It's really amazing seeing an initially scattered team, actually improve over the course of a season.  I haven't seen that in Austin in... I don't kniw, over a decade.  I wasn't sure such a thing was even possible.


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