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Since we only have one year of mega-conference data I'm obviously looking at 2024 here.  

A couple early points:
In the SEC the contrast between Florida and Mizzou is stark.  Mizzou finished a game better at 5-3 vs 4-4 for the Gators but the Gators did it while facing nearly all of the best teams in the league.  They lost to all three SEC playoff teams:

• in OT in Knoxville
• by two TD's in the WLOCP
• by a lot in Austin

Their other loss was to 5-3 aTm.  Those are all "good" losses.  The Gators also beat two teams that finished 5-3 in the SEC (LSU and Ole Miss).  That 2-4 record against SEC teams that finished with winning records isn't great but it is a hell of a lot better than Mizzou did in those games:

• Lost by 31 in College Station
• Shutout 34-0 in Tuscaloosa
• Lost by 4 at USCe

Two points:

• Florida's .500+ SEC opponents were better than Mizzou's
• Florida's record against .500+ SEC opponents was better than Mizzou's

Florida was a better team, plain and simple.  They finished with a worse record because they played a tougher schedule.  

Now coming home to our league, the following is sorted by cumulative league record of league opponents (this is one of the league's tiebreakers and was THE tiebreaker that sent PSU to the B1GCG instead of IU):


Indiana is the real outlier here and it helps to explain the gaudy record that they put up in 2024.  They only played two B1G teams that finished .500+ in the league (tOSU and Michigan).  In those games they barely survived Michigan at home and got smoked in Columbus.  They missed:

• 9-0 Oregon
• 8-1 Penn State
• 6-3 Illinois
• 6-3 Iowa
• 5-4 Minnesota

If the Hoosiers had played four or five of the .500+ teams like most of the league did they very likely would have lost another game or two.  

Here it is sorted by wins over .500+ teams:


Oregon had some good luck in the scheduling department too.  I'm not trying to take away from their accomplishment, going 9-0 is great but . . .
They only had one challenging road game, their road opponents were:

• 0-9 Purdue
• 3-6 Wisconsin
• 3-6 UCLA
• 5-4 Michigan

They got Ohio State at home and won by a single point.  They got Illinois at home.  Those two plus Michigan are the only .500+ teams that they played.  Would they have finished 9-0 if their schedule had included Penn State in Happy Valley, Indiana in Bloomington, and Iowa in Kinnick?  

I point all of this out because, going forward, it is going to matter pretty much every year.  There are going to be teams like Indiana that are pretty good but not great that get a lucky draw and end up in the CFP and there are going to be teams like Florida that are frankly probably better than Indiana that get a tough draw and end up around .500.  

Wisconsin had Oregon beat and the OC shit the bed (and got fired the next day).

They were up 7 with more than a quarter to go.

Had them beat seems like quite an overstatement.

One more score and it's over. The D gave up 16 points. To Oregon.

16. They averaged 35.

Another interesting tidbit is that I think that HFA will pull the West Coast teams toward .500.  Good West Coast teams will get dragged down by all the difficult road trips to eastern schools while bad West Coast teams will be propped up by all the home games against jetlagged eastern opponents. 

Four of these things are not like the others.

Tennessee had a weak-ass schedule, too.  2 opp ranked in the preseason wound up stinking (NCST & OU) and they basically played Bama, UGA, and that's it.  Florida had them beat, but gave it away in OT.  

So while the Vols fans were eager for a big-boy opponent in the playoff, they were not as good as their record.  Hence the pounding.

One more score and it's over. The D gave up 16 points. To Oregon.

16. They averaged 35.

In that case, I’ve seen a lot of UW teams beat through the years, but then someone screwed up. 

(Oregon was a quite good team. UW wasn’t. UW put most of what it had into being close, it wasn’t enough. Oregon’s defensive front just beat that ass. Wasn’t much answer there)

Tennessee had a weak-ass schedule, too.  2 opp ranked in the preseason wound up stinking (NCST & OU) and they basically played Bama, UGA, and that's it.  Florida had them beat, but gave it away in OT. 

So while the Vols fans were eager for a big-boy opponent in the playoff, they were not as good as their record.  Hence the pounding.

I did the same table for the SEC, here it is:

Same story as in the B1G really.  There is a HUMONGOUS difference between playing MissSt's "SEC Schedule" of all three CFP teams and 7 out of 8 being teams that finished .500 or above and playing Texas' or Tennessee's "SEC Schedule" of just one CFP team and only 3 out of 8 being teams that finished .500+.  

Alabama REALLY stands out here not as good or bad per-se, but just weird.  Judging by games against the .500+ teams, the Tide were the best team in the SEC.  They went 4-1 against .500+ SEC teams.  That is more wins and a better wining percentage than any other team.  So far, so good.  Problem:  Judging by games against the teams that did NOT finish .500 or above the Tide were one of the worst teams in the SEC.  They lost not just one but two games to teams that finished below .500 (Vandy and Oklahoma).  In the SEC only Bama, Kentucky and Auburn lost more than one game to sub .500 teams.