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How do you rank the potential coaching candidates from least to most likely?

I'd be totally guessing, what do you think?

I think this'll be like the last search.  No big time candidates with any connections to Ohio State, so it'll probably be some random coach that has had some success, kind of like we got with Holtmann.  I would've said we might take another stab at McDermott, who almost took the job last time, but he's 59 now.  I doubt we want to go for someone that old.

So watch the tourney this year, and see who makes the S16.  One of those might be the new coach next year, just like Holtmann was after his run of beating 2 double-digit seeds right before his hire.

I frankly think that the mistake they made last time was that they put too much emphasis on performance in the immediately prior Tournament.  You subtly referenced it, but Holtmann's last Butler team made the S16 as a #4 seed on a path of 13-12 because #5 seed Minnesota got upset by #12 MTSU that year.  

The tournament is by nature fluky.  You might get into the S16 on a 13-12 path or miss it by losing to an underseeded #5 seed from the same spot.  Is the #4 seed that beat two double digit seeds to make the S16 really any better than the #4 seed that lost to a really solid #5 seed and missed the S16?  I'd say no so I'm more interested in a more comprehensive look at success compared to program baseline.  By that metric Holtmann was questionable at Butler.  

It might be a flash-in-the-pan, but I'm interested in Paris at USCe.  In South Carolina's entire history they have:

• 1 F4: 2017
• 1 E8
• 4 S16's:  2017, 1973, 1972, 1971
• 9 NCAA Appearances:  2017, 2004, 1998, 1997, 1989, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971
• 2 conference tournament championships:  1971 (ACC), 1933 (SoCon)
• 6 Conference titles:  2009 and 1997 (SEC), 1970 (ACC), 1945, 1934, 1933, and 1927 (SoCon)

He has them ranked #11 and only 1/2 game out of first place in the SEC at 21-4/9-3.  That is an impressive record especially when you consider that he is doing this at a program that has two NCAA Appearances this century and has won two league titles in the last 50 years.  

Besides, I have a lot of respect for what Wisconsin has accomplished under Bo Ryan and Greg Gard so I'm happy grabbing a guy from Bo Ryan's coaching tree.  

How do you rank the potential coaching candidates from least to most likely?

https://www.on3.com/college/ohio-state-buckeyes/news/chris-holtmann-replacement-odds-released-next-ohio-state-basketball-coach-wes-sean-miller-dusty-may-lamont-paris/

Apparently you can bet on it and here are the favorites/odds:

• +250 other
• +450 Wes Miller
• +700 Sean Miller
• +1000 Dusty May
• +1200 Lamont Paris
• +1200 Anthony Grant
• +1500 Pat Kelsey
• +1500 Will Wade

So there you go.

How do you rank the potential coaching candidates from least to most likely?

I'm pleased that Buzz Williams isn't dominating the conversation. Based on all I've read and heard, I'd say the odds lean:

• Greg McDermott
• Sean Miller
• Lamont Paris
• Other

I say McDermott first because Gene Smith was looking at him a lot last time, and he has done well since then. Mean Gene says he is going to be really involved, so you have to think McDermott is still a big option. Sean Miller makes a ton of sense, though I don't know how they view the NCAA stuff and I don't know if he would leave Xavier so soon. Lamont Paris makes a ton of sense, but I've heard they want a beautiful game sort of coach, and that ain't Badger Ball.

Those are the three names that everyone mentions. Wes Miller gets mentioned some, which I don't really get, other than he is a basketball coach currently located in Ohio. He's not really done enough at Cincy to separate him from the various midmajor options there are. 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/chris-holtmann-ohio-state-firing-one-and-done-players/7e43bdd82373fcef3f6d6133

The article mostly talks about Branham and Sensabaugh.

This article is the strangest take I've seen on Holtmann's firing (most others questioned the in-season timing).

At several points the article praises the development of Branham and Sensabaugh into NBA draft picks, sort of saying they were developed too well? IMO, Holtmann got lucky with those two. As well as Holtmann recruited, a few players were bound to end up in the NBA. If Holtmann's development got him fired it wasn't, as this article is working to make the point, because he developed too well. It was because Holtmann's player development was atrocious.

"There may have been no more emphatic force in the direction of the program, though, than the one-and-done departures of two players who were good enough to be first-round selections in what’s become of the NBA Draft but did exactly nothing to revolutionize the program."

"There are many reasons Holtmann’s dismissal was announced Wednesday, some of them in his control, some not...But a lot of it, as well, was youth. The past three seasons, the Buckeyes ranked 137th in Division I experience. At a time when college basketball was getting older because of the sudden taste for transfers and the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic, the Buckeyes’ most promising players were off gaining experience in the NBA."

I may be revising my ranking to Sean Miller first and McDermott 2nd. If they are willing to hire him, Xavier looks like they won't make the tourney and he could start immediately, which would help a lot to keep some guys around.

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2024/02/145660/a-billion-wicked-thoughts

Good stuff. I was particularly struck by the bolded line below...

The similarity lies in the optics of two programs with strong cultures that have suffered through pervasive, repetitive, uncomplicated and self-inflicted setbacks. Day and Holtmann both come across as leaders who would rather be proven right than change course to do what's right. That observation expired abruptly for the football program after the Cotton Bowl.

<snip>

As for the basketball program, there was nothing stinky about it except for the Januarys, Februarys, Marches, road games, 2nd halves - the pervasive, repetitive, uncomplicated and self-inflicted setbacks that showed no sign of being corrected. If Holtmann coached at Ohio State ten more years everyone reading this would have been able to retire early by shorting the program after the New Year.

<snip>

He did it with an odd elegance and grace that normally doesn't accompany a program that shows its ass every January and February in the 2nd halves of every basketball game it plays. And he showed no willingness or appetite to change, so Ohio State made that change on his behalf.

Of course he goes on (in the snipped portions) to talk about how Day changed course and is doing (from outside observation at least) everything that suggests he recognizes his mistakes and he's addressing them. 

This to me is what makes the situation similar to Painter when he hit his 2-year slump. Obviously we've already talked about the history of success he had with the Baby Boilers, but literally he had flirted with the Missouri job to get additional resources for the BB program (and a nice raise for himself obv), and then just after doing that, the program hit a tailspin. 

I think the difference is that Painter, like Day, recognized that HE was making mistakes. Painter owned up to it with the AD, explained how HE was going to change and how it would help, and the AD took his word for it and gave him enough rope to either hang himself or swing to safety. 

I can't know what went on behind closed doors between Holtmann and Smith, but apparently Smith didn't think the situation was going to right itself under Holtmann.