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Topic: Chris Holtmann
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MaximumSam · « **Reply #154 on:** January 30, 2024, 01:14:44 PM »

Quote

Have either of you ever taken any training on decision-making?

First rule of decision-making is that determining "good" vs "bad" decision-making is based on the PROCESS followed, not the result.

My whole job is mostly making decisions based on limited information, coupled with a lot of negotiation. I'm going to focus on the process - my clients are going to focus on the results. Which is really the heart of the debate here. Medina's whole thing is this has been going on for 7 years and the results haven't come. Which is fair!

My focus has been on the process - recruiting, KenPom rankings, etc. They are doing a lot of the right things and results should hopefully follow.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #155 on:** January 30, 2024, 01:48:21 PM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on January 30, 2024, 01:14:44 PM

My whole job is mostly making decisions based on limited information, coupled with a lot of negotiation. I'm going to focus on the process - my clients are going to focus on the results. Which is really the heart of the debate here. Medina's whole thing is this has been going on for 7 years and the results haven't come. Which is fair!

My focus has been on the process - recruiting, KenPom rankings, etc. They are doing a lot of the right things and results should hopefully follow.

Final Kenpom rankings by year:

2017-18: 16th
2018-19: 44th
2019-20: 8th
2020-21: 11th
2021-22: 31st
2022-23: 49th
2023-24: Currently 61st

IMHO programs tend to have a certain culture that persists after one coach leaves and another coach steps in. IMHO Holtmann benefited from having recruits from Matta that promulgate the culture for a few years, but right now seems to be on a downward trajectory.

You say "get old and stay old" which I know is a Painter quote, but I'm not sure it works the same in the world of NIL and transfer portal. And IMHO you've stated this is "young team" b/c they start 4 sophomores and 1 senior. I don't view sophomores as "young" unless they're project players. If your roster is so barren that you're forced to start project players at multiple positions, it belies your point about recruiting. The last two years they've had the top and the 2nd place conference recruiting by 247 rank, and you're telling me the #1 conference recruiting class in 2022 who are those four sophomores should be playing this badly? They shouldn't be project players.

Purdue in 2007 had their leading minutes played by Moore (true frosh), Kramer (true soph) & Hummel (true frosh), and went 25-9, 2nd in conference, and made the 2nd round of the tournament. In 2008 their minutes were led by Moore & Hummel (true soph), Johnson was 5th (true soph), and Lewis Jackson (true frosh) was 6th contributing >20 mpg. They tied for first in the conference and went to the S16.

If OSU had the #1 conference recruiting class in 2022 and those players were terrible as freshman (5-15) in conference despite Thornton leading the team in minutes and Sensabaugh 5th, with Okpara playing 15 mpg (not surprising--bigs take more time to transition to the college game), you can't act like they didn't get playing time to develop. If they're worth ANYTHING, those players should be better than 3-6 in conference against a weak opening schedule.

So it's either they're not as talented as the STARZ would represent, or Holtmann isn't capable of coaching them up to their talent level. Either way, it bodes ill for the program under his leadership.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #156 on:** January 30, 2024, 02:21:18 PM »

Review of the Holtmann hire my thoughts (since it came up). I'll start with a review or what came before.

I said earlier that I think Gene Smith screwed up the Matta situation. Matta did GREAT things at Ohio State. He took over a program that was reeling and under sanctions and:

1st season: 6th in B1G, NCAA suspension
2nd season: B1G Champions, R32
3rd season: B1G Champions, NCAA Runner-up.
4th season, 5th in B1G, NIT Champions
5th season, T4th in B1G, NCAA appearance
6th season, B1G Champions, S16
7th season, B1G Champions, S16 - Even though they "only" made it to the S16, this was Matta's best team and the best tOSU BB team in my lifetime IMHO.
8th season, B1G Champions, F4
9th season, T2nd in B1G, E8
10th season, 5th in B1G, NCAA appearance
11th season, 6th in B1G, R32
12 season, 7th in B1G, NIT 2nd round
13th season, T10th in B1G, no postseason

In his 13 seasons the Buckeyes achieved:

5 B1G Championships (better than one every three years)
10 NCAA Appearances (all but first and last two and they probably would have made it his first year but were under suspension)
5 S16's (better than one every three years)
3 E8's(about one every four years)
2 F4's (one every 6.5 years)
1 NCG appearance

That was phenomenal but there was also a clear downward trajectory at the end. "Peak Matta" as I call it, was the stretch from his second through his ninth seasons. In those eight years tOSU achieved:

5 B1G titles (better than every other year)
7 NCAA Appearances - they got screwed the year they missed and proved it by winning the Not Invited Tournament
5 S16's including four in a row
3 E8's
2 F4's
1 NCG appearance

That would be an extremely good eight year stretch anywhere except about four or five schools where they could legitimately hold the lack of NC's against you.

At this time and lingering for a few years thereafter, as an Ohio State fan, I really believed:

That we had found "our Izzo" and I mean that as the most sincere compliment to Izzo possible, and
That we were on a path that would probably result in an NC eventually. The Buckeyes had made the NCG once and the F4 another time and in a third season (Matta's 7th) I believe that they had the best team in the game bar none. If you are consistently fielding one of the best teams in the nation and getting to the F4, you are likely to win an NC eventually.

So after Matta's 13th season it seems like he and the AD had a conversation. The AD understandably gave him some latitude because he had done SO MUCH but at the same time the downward trajectory was alarming. During recruiting, Matta lost out on a few guys (one of which was to Holtmann's Butler) and my impression is that the AD decided to pull the plug.

The timing was a disaster because the coaching carousel had already stopped.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #157 on:** January 30, 2024, 02:38:03 PM »

Holtmann before Ohio State:
After playing at small schools and some assistant coaching jobs at smaller schools he was HC at Gardner-Webb for three seasons from 2010/11 through 2012/13. The first two were bad Big South teams with no postseason then he improved dramatically in year three and went to the CIT.

Butler hired him to replace Brandon Miller who more-or-less decided that he wasn't crazy enough to be a CBB Coach (I totally respect that decision).

Miller's one year at Butler had been a disaster anyway (4-14/14-17) but prior to that Brad Stevens had PHENOMENAL success at Butler including four straight Horizon League Titles and back-to-back NCAA CG appearances. Stevens' last year in the Horizon League was an off-year (CBI semi-final) and then he finished 3rd in Butler's lone year in the A10 and won a first round NCAA game. Then there was Miller's mess of a year. Then came Holtmann:

1st season: 23-11/12-6, T2nd in BigEast, 1-1 in NCAA.
2nd season: 22-11/10-8, T4th in BigEast, 1-1 in NCAA.
3rd season: 25-9/12-6, 2nd in BigEast, S16 - Note here that the 2-1 record in the NCAA was aided greatly by #5 seed Minnesota losing their NCAA opener thus allowing Holtmann's #4 seed Butler to advance to the S16 on a path of 13/12.

From there he was hired by Ohio State.

I don't frankly think this is a spectacular record before Ohio State. His teams at Butler were decent (like his first five years at tOSU) but unspectacular and his one-and-only trip to the S16 came via an incredibly easy path created by an upset.

It isn't a bad record, it just isn't great either and I think when you are Ohio State and you are throwing around Ohio State money, you should be looking for smaller school coaches with REALLY impressive resume's not decent/caretaker records.

I think it is fair to say that one of the key reasons for Holtmann's hire at Ohio State was the S16 run that immediately preceded it. IMHO, it is dangerous to overweight performance in ONE tournament because what you are really doing here is hiring him on the basis of a win in ONE game where he lucked into playing a unusually weak 2nd round NCAA opponent. Conversely, it wouldn't be fair to hold it against a guy that he lost to a #1 seed in the second round.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #158 on:** January 30, 2024, 06:45:45 PM »

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IMHO Holtmann benefited from having recruits from Matta that promulgate the culture for a few years, but right now seems to be on a downward trajectory.

His first year, definitely (recruits Matta didn't win with but still). His second year there were only two left, CJ Jackson and Andre Wesson. His best two years were in some order 2018, 2020, and 2021, so no, I don't think Matta recruits were holding up the program.

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And IMHO you've stated this is "young team" b/c they start 4 sophomores and 1 senior.

They are a young team because they have one guy in the rotation who is an upperclassman and on the team last year, plus two more seniors from the transfer portal, one who starts, and six freshmen or sophomores. Wisconsin was fairly middling last year, and this year they have upperclassmen who were on the team last year. Magically, they are good now.

Quote

Purdue in 2007 had their leading minutes played by Moore (true frosh), Kramer (true soph) & Hummel (true frosh), and went 25-9, 2nd in conference, and made the 2nd round of the tournament. In 2008 their minutes were led by Moore & Hummel (true soph), Johnson was 5th (true soph), and Lewis Jackson (true frosh) was 6th contributing >20 mpg. They tied for first in the conference and went to the S16.

Well, right. Matt Painter is the best coach in the conference, and Robbie Hummel is one of the best players in Purdue history. Purdue is the best program in the B1G, at least right now. So yeah, that is what they are chasing. This would be like me comparing any random coach to Urban Meyer and OSU and wondering why they aren't as good as that.

Also, we are discounting the nature of the sport right now. A lot of guys playing are in their fourth, fifth, and sixth years of basketball. Every team can fill out its roster with veteran guys. This is a massive change that people still aren't taking into account to any appreciable degree, but does affect the sport. There is a reason everything looks a lot more random than it used to be, and it ain't just shooting three pointers. I'm not aware that "get old, stay old" is a Painter original, but regardless, every coach says it and wants it and now can get it. The game is different.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #159 on:** January 30, 2024, 09:40:30 PM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on January 12, 2024, 06:15:52 PM

Honestly, I can't think of a single reason where you would fire Holtmann midseason, when they've been a pretty decent team. The idea makes no sense. You do that when things have gone hopelessly south

Um . . .

They've lost six of seven.

They are 3-7 in the B1G and have played the easier half of their schedule.

They are practically eliminated from the B1G race because the leaders aren't all going to go sub .500 the rest of the way.

The NCAA Tournament is a pipe dream.

This on the heels of a comically bad season last year and in Holtmann's seventh year with no league titles nor trips beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament to offset the lows.

They just played a top-15 team in a half-full arena because who would pay to watch this crap year after year?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #160 on:** January 31, 2024, 01:50:26 AM »

. . .

MaximumSam · « **Reply #161 on:** January 31, 2024, 07:28:00 AM »

Another name: Lamont Paris at South Carolina. Got Chattanooga turned around from awful to good. Quickly got South Carolina sorted out. Coached under Bo Ryan and Greg Gard. Only one tourney appearance so no March history to talk about. Didn't realize he's from Ohio, so might listen to offers.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #162 on:** January 31, 2024, 07:44:59 AM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on January 31, 2024, 07:28:00 AM

Another name: Lamont Paris at South Carolina. Got Chattanooga turned around from awful to good. Quickly got South Carolina sorted out. Coached under Bo Ryan and Greg Gard. Only one tourney appearance so no March history to talk about. Didn't realize he's from Ohio, so might listen to offers.

I brought him up 2 weeks ago and almost nobody responded.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #163 on:** January 31, 2024, 07:47:37 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2024, 07:44:59 AM

I brought him up 2 weeks ago and almost nobody responded.

I've brought up a dozen people and nobody responds to that either

847badgerfan · « **Reply #164 on:** January 31, 2024, 08:13:01 AM »

I didn't like any of those to be honest.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #165 on:** January 31, 2024, 08:28:17 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 31, 2024, 08:13:01 AM

I didn't like any of those to be honest.

Hence the problem

MaximumSam · « **Reply #166 on:** January 31, 2024, 09:25:49 AM »

If I had to guess I'd say Buzz Williams will be the next OSU coach. He is in his fifth year at TAMU, so he knows Bjork, and he has one NCAA appearance and probably won't make it this year, so TAMU won't care. Hooray?

847badgerfan · « **Reply #167 on:** January 31, 2024, 09:35:08 AM »

That would not be a good hire.

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Topic: Chris Holtmann

MaximumSam

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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MaximumSam

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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MaximumSam

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847badgerfan

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MaximumSam

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847badgerfan

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MaximumSam

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MaximumSam

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847badgerfan

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