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Topic: Chris Holtmann

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #126 on: January 29, 2024, 09:54:30 AM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on January 29, 2024, 09:13:06 AM
Radio Chatter: they were talking on Friday what if Holtman had won a specific 3 games?

What if his first year he beat Penn State? Then OSU would have had a share of the Big Ten Title, and a trophy in the case.
What if OSU beat Illinois in overtime for the Big Ten Tournament Championship? Another title and trophy in the case.
What if OSU beat Oral Roberts in the opening round of the NCAA tournament? Most likely they make it to the 2nd weekend, and a sweet 16 appearance.

If Holtman has those three accolades in his cabinet, he is given grace for these last two seasons. But since he doesn't, it looks like Bjork has his first termination to figure out here soon.
Hearing it put this way makes me wonder how close the line is between success and failure. 3 more wins over 6 years doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but in this case they end up being a huge deal.
I mean, yes and no . . . 

Those PSU losses were just weird.  The Buckeyes were great against the rest of the B1G and PSU sucked but they met three times and PSU swept the season series.  

I don't think a lot of people really care about the B1G Tournament.  Maybe but I just don't see it.  

Beating Oral Roberts in the NCAA Tournament would only even impact my opinion IF they also won game #2 and actually advanced to the S16.  

Even if he had won those three, we'd be here today saying that he won a B1G title in his first year (with Matta's guys) and hasn't been close since.  That isn't much better.  

Those three are magnified but that is only because the results in the rest of the games are treated as fixed.  I mean, we finished 12-8 and three games out of the B1G Title in 2021/22 so if you picked any three of the eight league losses from that year and said "what if he won these three?"  I wouldn't be here banging the drum to get rid of him because he'd have a league title with his own guys only a few years ago.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #127 on: January 29, 2024, 09:58:30 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 28, 2024, 05:32:46 PM
(Medina would say that Holtmann is recruiting well but coaching poorly, I'd expect.)
I'm sure you already know this but I really don't care.  As HC he is responsible for both recruiting and coaching.  The results are below the standard.  If it is because they don't have enough talent that is his fault for not getting better talent.  If it is because the gameday coaching sucks, that is his fault for not coaching better on gamedays.  

I *THINK* the talent is there.  Based on recruiting rankings and stars and all of that, it appears that Ohio State *SHOULD* at least be one of the more talented teams in the league.  Thus, I *THINK* that it is a gameday coaching problem and we've certainly seen that in a lot of end-of-game collapses (ie, against your Boilermakers last year when they let an almost sealed win slip away).  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #128 on: January 29, 2024, 10:27:29 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 29, 2024, 09:58:30 AM
I'm sure you already know this but I really don't care.  As HC he is responsible for both recruiting and coaching.  The results are below the standard.  If it is because they don't have enough talent that is his fault for not getting better talent.  If it is because the gameday coaching sucks, that is his fault for not coaching better on gamedays. 

I *THINK* the talent is there.  Based on recruiting rankings and stars and all of that, it appears that Ohio State *SHOULD* at least be one of the more talented teams in the league.  Thus, I *THINK* that it is a gameday coaching problem and we've certainly seen that in a lot of end-of-game collapses (ie, against your Boilermakers last year when they let an almost sealed win slip away). 
Yeah, I know it's the results that matter, not the cause. 

BTW it was a little similar during Painter's slump after the Baby Boilers. He was recruiting well, according to 247. Lot of top-100 guys. But the team wasn't performing.

The team came back based on a few guys WAY outside the top 100. Isaac Haas (144), Vincent Edwards (157), Dakota Mathias (210), and PJ Thompson (unranked). 

Painter at the time said that he was too focused on getting highly-rated players and needed to get "Purdue guys". Which the Painter-haters of the time took as bait to bash him even further that he was setting his sights on lunch-pail players that would never accomplish anything. But instead it was more that he wanted to find guys that fit rather than guys who were ranked and try to make them fit. The next year he brought in Caleb Swanigan (33) so it's not like he gave up on talent. But it seemed to have worked.

My guess is that part of what saved Painter's job is that he walked into the AD's office with an understanding of where he made mistakes and a clear vision of how he was going to fix it--on top of actually having proven he COULD deliver as a result of what he did with his earlier classes. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #129 on: January 29, 2024, 10:37:28 AM »
I'm curious what the board thinks about coaching decisions from the perspective of an AD so I want to do a separate post/poll on that but I want to make sure I have the two starting points right.  

My view as articulated in this thread is that an AD should start by realistically assessing the program to get a realistic expectation.  If the current coach is substantially above that, fight to keep him.  If he is substantially below that, fire him.  If he is near that, eh.  I really don't care what the plan is because my view is that the "average coach" should attain the program average.  

Further, my view is that coaching hires are basically a crap shoot so I think all the talk about "plan" is kinda silly because plenty of hires that looked dubious turned out great and plenty that looked great turned out bad.  

I think that the above is also roughly @betarhoalphadelta 's view but if I'm wrong, please correct me.  

The following is my paraphrasing of @MaximumSam 's view so if I'm misstating your view here, please correct me:
Max's view is that you need to have a transition plan in place first because you need to select a replacement that you think is better than your current coach.  
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MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #130 on: January 29, 2024, 10:49:26 AM »

Quote
Further, my view is that coaching hires are basically a crap shoot so I think all the talk about "plan" is kinda silly because plenty of hires that looked dubious turned out great and plenty that looked great turned out bad.  
What is interesting is that I also kind of feel that way, which is why going on an on about Holtmann being a "failure" sort of gets lumped in the same boat. Coaches aren't magical, everything is a crap shoot to some degree. I don't think it makes logical sense to say hiring a coach is a crap shoot and also fire the coach because a handful of games didn't go your way, especially these days.


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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #131 on: January 29, 2024, 11:11:20 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 29, 2024, 10:37:28 AM
I'm curious what the board thinks about coaching decisions from the perspective of an AD so I want to do a separate post/poll on that but I want to make sure I have the two starting points right. 

My view as articulated in this thread is that an AD should start by realistically assessing the program to get a realistic expectation.  If the current coach is substantially above that, fight to keep him.  If he is substantially below that, fire him.  If he is near that, eh.  I really don't care what the plan is because my view is that the "average coach" should attain the program average. 

Further, my view is that coaching hires are basically a crap shoot so I think all the talk about "plan" is kinda silly because plenty of hires that looked dubious turned out great and plenty that looked great turned out bad. 

I think that the above is also roughly @betarhoalphadelta 's view but if I'm wrong, please correct me. 

The following is my paraphrasing of @MaximumSam 's view so if I'm misstating your view here, please correct me:
Max's view is that you need to have a transition plan in place first because you need to select a replacement that you think is better than your current coach. 
I don't like the term "crapshoot". I think I'd prefer "educated guess" lol.. 

And in CBB, I don't think you need a transition plan. There are 330(ish?) Div I basketball programs. There will be qualified coaches available to hire. Whether that's poaching the mid-major ranks, an assistant from a P6 program, etc. It's not like you have to have your ideal coach locked up at the time you fire your current one.

 
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 29, 2024, 10:49:26 AM
What is interesting is that I also kind of feel that way, which is why going on an on about Holtmann being a "failure" sort of gets lumped in the same boat. Coaches aren't magical, everything is a crap shoot to some degree. I don't think it makes logical sense to say hiring a coach is a crap shoot and also fire the coach because a handful of games didn't go your way, especially these days.
I think about it more like a marriage. You go into marriage thinking you're going to be happy. Everyone does. But if the divorce rate (and I know this is a BS stat) is 50%, it seems that maybe a lot of people aren't all that great at making the decision. 

But if it's just not right, at some point you realize that. At that point you may not know whether the next person will be Mr/Mrs Right, but you know the one you're married to is Mr/Mrs Wrong, and you need to get out of it. 

Thinking you need to hang on to the one you're with, hoping for some magical improvement, is just a recipe for disappointment. 
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MrNubbz

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #132 on: January 29, 2024, 11:16:51 AM »
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"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #133 on: January 29, 2024, 11:31:08 AM »
I forgot to mention Anthony Grant at Dayton. Has a strong team this year and had a really great team that got dinged by COVID. But not counting this year he has two NCAA tourney appearances in 12 years between Alabama and Dayton.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #134 on: January 29, 2024, 11:33:44 AM »
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MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #135 on: January 29, 2024, 11:33:52 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 29, 2024, 11:11:20 AM

I think about it more like a marriage. You go into marriage thinking you're going to be happy. Everyone does. But if the divorce rate (and I know this is a BS stat) is 50%, it seems that maybe a lot of people aren't all that great at making the decision.

But if it's just not right, at some point you realize that. At that point you may not know whether the next person will be Mr/Mrs Right, but you know the one you're married to is Mr/Mrs Wrong, and you need to get out of it.

Thinking you need to hang on to the one you're with, hoping for some magical improvement, is just a recipe for disappointment.

The problem with this comparison is that one can be happier single than married to a crappy spouse. But OSU needs to have a basketball coach, and can't hire and fire people based on what it imagines a good program should be like. That's like guys who get married then constantly cheat in hopes of finding something better than what they have.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #136 on: January 29, 2024, 11:34:44 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 29, 2024, 11:33:44 AM
At this point support for Holtmann is nearing zero. 
I'd say the issue is less support for him, of which there ain't much, and support for firing him and paying the buyout and hiring a new coach, which is something different entirely and not something I have any real insight about.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #137 on: January 29, 2024, 11:40:03 AM »
Chit at this point he's hoping,wishing and praying for it.Buy a boat go fishing and retire to anonymity and enjoy your larceny - like congress/corporate does. The rest of you poor slobs what are you looking at? Get back to work


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"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #138 on: January 29, 2024, 11:51:24 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on January 29, 2024, 11:33:52 AM
The problem with this comparison is that one can be happier single than married to a crappy spouse. But OSU needs to have a basketball coach, and can't hire and fire people based on what it imagines a good program should be like. That's like guys who get married then constantly cheat in hopes of finding something better than what they have.
Yeah, there are limits to the analogy. To expand:

Quote from: MaximumSam on January 29, 2024, 11:34:44 AM
I'd say the issue is less support for him, of which there ain't much, and support for firing him and paying the buyout and hiring a new coach, which is something different entirely and not something I have any real insight about.

The extension of the marriage analogy is "well you need to stay together for the kids!" What, and raise them in an unhappy/dysfunctional household where their parents can't stand each other? That's healthy... :smiley_confused1:

When I got divorced, it was--and continues to be--expensive. But as the old saw goes, that's because it's worth it. I'd rather "pay the buyout" than continue to be unhappy... 

And that "buyout" is far more financially material to me than anything OSU is going to have to pay. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #139 on: January 29, 2024, 11:57:18 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 29, 2024, 11:51:24 AM
When I got divorced, it was--and continues to be--expensive. But as the old saw goes, that's because it's worth it. I'd rather "pay the buyout" than continue to be unhappy...

And that "buyout" is far more financially material to me than anything OSU is going to have to pay.
I literally laughed outloud at this.  
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