Last fall
@Mdot21 started pushing his theory that you simply couldn't win big in CFB anymore by relying on a stout D. In today's game, he argued, you need a powerful offense.
I've come around to agreeing but I'm a data guy so I wanted some numbers to back it up.
I was thinking about it in relation to The Game and last year the Buckeyes scored 27 points in a two-score (barely) loss. I think that Michigan's defense was really good last year and I think that 20+ years ago a team with a D like that probably wins The Game something like 14-9 (tOSU in 2002) or 20-14 (M in 1997).
Not anymore: Ohio State gained 450+ yards and put up 27 points against that defense.
The thing is, the loser scoring 27+ isn't even unusual anymore. The last three losers of The Game scored at least 27 and in fact seven of the last 10 losers scored at least 27 points:
- 41 by M in a 1 point loss in 2013
- 39 by M in a 23 point loss in 2018
- 34 by tOSU in a 6 point loss in 2011
- 28 by M in a 14 point loss in 2014
- 27 by M in a 3 point loss in 2016
- 27 by tOSU in a 15 point loss in 2021
- 27 by M in a 29 point loss in 2019
Allow me to provide some perspective: In the 19 years that Bo Schembechler coached against Woody Hayes and Earle Bruce (1969-1987) the WINNING team never scored more than 27 points.
In other words, an amount of points (27) that was enough to pretty much guarantee a win back then is a typical losing score today.
Another perspective: In 1996 the Wolverines won 13-9 (I remember it well, I was in the tOSU student section). In the 25 years leading up to that (1972-1996) the scores were:
Winner:
- 20 points average
- 34 points most
- 9 points least
Loser:
- 12 points average
- 31 points most
- 0 points least
In the 25 years since (1997-2021):
Winner:
- 34 points average
- 62 points most
- 14 points least
Loser:
- 22 points average
- 41 points most
- 3 points least
So, in the last 25 years the loser of The Game has averaged more points than the winner averaged in the preceeding 25 years.
