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Topic: Chance of winning and the betting line

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #42 on: April 11, 2018, 10:42:45 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 11, 2018, 10:23:44 AM
Then there is my theory:
If you think about roulette from the casino's perspective, they make most of their money when it hits green.  If @Cincydawg bets red and I bet black the casino gives my money to him when it hits red and his money to me when it hits black.  Same thing if we are betting even/odd or whatever but the casino takes both of our money when it lands on green.  Consequently, my theory is that if the Casino could slightly increase the odds of landing on green they would.  Maybe the green spaces are a millimeter wider than the others or something but generally the casino would make more money that way so I always bet on green.  
I think that would be unlikely, at least in Vegas. The Nevada Gaming Commission is no joke. And the casinos know the fallout with the general public if they were to be proven to "cheat" the game with an unbalanced wheel. 
The casinos know they're going to make money even with a perfectly equally weighted wheel. It's built into the game. The risk, both with the gaming commission and with the public's perception, make it highly risky to mess around and not give people the right odds.
Now, you get outside Nevada, and maybe to smaller casinos in some of the less-regulated states or the Indian casinos, and maybe you have a point. But I don't see it happening in Vegas.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #43 on: April 11, 2018, 10:55:36 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 11, 2018, 10:42:45 AM
I think that would be unlikely, at least in Vegas. The Nevada Gaming Commission is no joke. And the casinos know the fallout with the general public if they were to be proven to "cheat" the game with an unbalanced wheel.
The casinos know they're going to make money even with a perfectly equally weighted wheel. It's built into the game. The risk, both with the gaming commission and with the public's perception, make it highly risky to mess around and not give people the right odds.
Now, you get outside Nevada, and maybe to smaller casinos in some of the less-regulated states or the Indian casinos, and maybe you have a point. But I don't see it happening in Vegas.
Yeah, probably not but it is the theory I go with.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #44 on: April 11, 2018, 01:08:33 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 06:34:03 PM
I suspect a really savvy player can make some dough on sports betting, with a lot of work.  As noted above, the House gets their take no matter what, but you are betting against some "fans" out there.  I imagine there is some heavy money that comes in if some bet gets out of whack, but perhaps you can still find room between the elephants.


Jimmy the Greek?
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #45 on: April 11, 2018, 01:36:40 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2018, 06:34:03 PM
I suspect a really savvy player can make some dough on sports betting, with a lot of work.  As noted above, the House gets their take no matter what, but you are betting against some "fans" out there.  I imagine there is some heavy money that comes in if some bet gets out of whack, but perhaps you can still find room between the elephants.
Just for 100% clarity, you are betting against the house, not against other players. That is a key differentiator between this and poker, where you're betting against other players and the house gets their cut.
The house wants 50/50 betting on either side of the line, because when they get that, it doesn't matter which side wins, they make money. If they set the line wrong and it goes 80/20, with the win in favor of the 80% side, the money to fund that comes out of the HOUSE not the 20% who lost their bet (of course they lose to the house). Or to make it simpler, let's say the betting comes in 100% on one side of the line and that side wins. Who pays the winners? The house, because there ARE no losing betters. 
But that's why the line can move if there is too much action going one direction. If the betting is coming in lopsided one way or the other, the line will move to entice closer to even action. Because when the action is even, the house CAN'T lose.
My point regarding this, however, is that the "line" may not be right, even when the betting is 50/50. The question is whether a savvy sports bettor can use his/her own SKILL in order to find places where those lines are off. 
Because unlike roulette, or blackjack, or video poker, the lines don't reflect an exact mathematical probability of outcome of an impersonal collection of spaces on a wheel, or a defined number of cards, or a random number generator in a CPU. The outcome is not mathematically determined. The outcome is dependent on humans, who are notoriously unpredictable. The question is whether a savvy bettor can determine WHEN the unpredictability leans more heavily a certain way.
With the vig, you don't come out ahead if you're correct until you can predict at a >55% clip. But it's still betting against the house.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #46 on: April 11, 2018, 04:32:31 PM »
When I say you are betting against some "fans out there", I mean their attitudes help set the line.  If you can discern that too many fans are betting unrealistically you might beat the House take.  Maybe.

I realize the bet is with the bookie.  But the bookie is trying to get to even bets if he can.  If OSU fans like to bet on OSU, you can perhaps go against that popular opinion and get a better line than is really warranted.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #47 on: April 11, 2018, 04:34:50 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 04:32:31 PM
When I say you are betting against some "fans out there", I mean their attitudes help set the line.  If you can discern that too many fans are betting unrealistically you might beat the House take.  Maybe.

I realize the bet is with the bookie.  But the bookie is trying to get to even bets if he can.  If OSU fans like to bet on OSU, you can perhaps go against that popular opinion and get a better line than is really warranted.
Understood. I can be a bit pedantic at times, so I just wanted to clarify in case anyone reading the thread wasn't clear.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #48 on: April 11, 2018, 04:59:28 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 11, 2018, 04:32:31 PM
I realize the bet is with the bookie.  But the bookie is trying to get to even bets if he can.  If OSU fans like to bet on OSU, you can perhaps go against that popular opinion and get a better line than is really warranted.
I get the theory.  In theory OSU, Bama, ND have lots of fans and in theory fans probably prefer to bet on their team so in theory the spread for OSU/Bama/ND should be slanted a little bit such that teams like OSU/Bama/ND with lots of fans should go somewhat below .500 ATS (against the spread).  
First, I'd like to see some research.  Do teams like tOSU/Bama/ND typically finish below .500 ATS?  
My other problem is that in at least half of the games in a typical year a team like tOSU/Bama/ND is obviously substantially better.  At that point the spread isn't a casino guess as to how much better tOSU/Bama/ND is, it is a guess as to how much tOSU/Bama/ND will want to win by.  
Lets say that Ohio State plays Purdue and the Buckeyes are favored by 17.  Mid-way through the 4th quarter the Buckeyes receive a punt and take possession ahead by 23 points.  Now I think at that point we could all agree that it sure looks like the Buckeyes are in fact at least 17 points better than Purdue but what happens next has as much to do with what Urban Meyer wants as anything else.  If Urban Meyer wants "style points" then there is a decent chance that the Buckeyes will score another TD and win by 30.  If Urban Meyer is happy with the performance and the (at that point) sure win and just wants to avoid injuries to starters and/or get a look at the backups in action he'll send out the second and third stringers on offense and when they lose the ball he'll send out the second and third stringers on defense and there is a decent chance that Purdue will score a TD and beat the spread by finishing "only" 16 points down to the 17 point favorite Buckeyes.  
I guess part of the reason I've never done much sports betting is that it would frustrate me to no end to watch as the team that I bet on had an easy opportunity to cover and didn't take it because they don't care about covering and just want to win.  In my above example it is the same thing if I had bet on Purdue +17 and they were down 19 and in FG range late.  Obviously they are going to try for a TD but all I need is a FG.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #49 on: April 11, 2018, 05:22:08 PM »
I rarely bet on favorites when the spread is 28 or more - ok, never

cause the coach may pull starters and take the air out of the ball once he gets up by 4 TDs in the 4th quarter

the dog then scores a late TD and poof!  my money down the drain
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #50 on: April 11, 2018, 05:31:14 PM »
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/against-the-spread/

Looks like popular powerhouse teams Ball State, Kansas, Akron, WKU, and UT-San Antonio had bad ATS scores last year.

Hmmmmm ....

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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #51 on: April 11, 2018, 05:32:30 PM »
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/

A little easier to read.  Iowa State did the best ATS last season.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #52 on: April 11, 2018, 05:34:29 PM »
I checked a few other years and my hypothesis is not valid, at all.  Derp.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #53 on: April 11, 2018, 06:57:22 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 11, 2018, 04:59:28 PM
I get the theory.  In theory OSU, Bama, ND have lots of fans and in theory fans probably prefer to bet on their team so in theory the spread for OSU/Bama/ND should be slanted a little bit such that teams like OSU/Bama/ND with lots of fans should go somewhat below .500 ATS (against the spread).  
First, I'd like to see some research.  Do teams like tOSU/Bama/ND typically finish below .500 ATS?  
I don't think any simple mechanical "bet against helmets ATS" is going to have an edge, because to be honest any simple mechanical system--if it's actually any good--would quickly be exploited to the effect that it would be nil. I think the "efficient market hypothesis" is usually overstated, but along the same lines if Vegas found themselves consistently losing money on helmet teams in the sportsbook, I am ABSOLUTELY sure they would see that and correct.
It's similar to the stock market. Once some systematic investment strategy, such as the "Dogs of the Dow", becomes popular, it gets baked into the investment strategies and then fails to outperform.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #54 on: April 11, 2018, 09:11:16 PM »
Nicely put, and completely agree.
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MarqHusker

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #55 on: April 12, 2018, 12:08:51 AM »
When finding a bookie was harder, or when lines had more of a spread between bid/ask it was common for the line to be a little juicier in helmet teams home market.  Nebraska was 2 or 3 pts more expensive to bet in Lincoln than the posted odds at a sportsbook during my college days. There was a market premium other wise the action was too heavy on the home team .
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