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Topic: CFP Thread

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FearlessF

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #434 on: December 26, 2025, 04:12:29 PM »
what???
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #435 on: Today at 10:07:14 AM »
“Experts” in quotes.  If the Vegas line includes SP+ then that can’t beat Vegas.

I think it is weighted by how bettors view things also.
Just call them what they are: The TV people they have make picks.

that’s actually an interesting space about the ratings compared to the lines. The lines should be incorporating some similar mathematical principles to what those ratings use. The ratings also come out first, so they probably do have an effect.

And I think the way it usually works is an initial line is set, but it’s only open to a small group of big bettors. Then that’s going to have an effect on the initial line movement. And then everyone else can bet and lines shift with betting patterns and news that would affect the line/betting patterns.

Cincydawg

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #436 on: Today at 12:21:51 PM »
I idly wonder what percentage of total sports betting is by "whales", like wondering how much casino money is in the "back rooms" vs. the huge open floor.  One sits at a blackjack table with a $10 minimum and 7 people, the casino is raking $70 per winning hand, which is roughly a bit over half the hands, and losing a bit under half.  So, if the table is full, they are gaining something like $2 per round per couple of minutes, say $60 per hour, roughly.  They probably pay out $30 an hour in labor and then other costs.  Maybe they have 20 tables going, so mayb $600 net per hour?  Very rough guess.

In a back room with say two tables, the wagers might well be tens of thousansds, so perhaps they pay out much larger sums, with not much additional overhead (comps would be greater).

So, maybe 80% of bets on sports is from "big money"?????

The lines always fascinated me, the kind of ranking I'd do is one using prospective lines from LV.

MrNubbz

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #437 on: Today at 12:55:40 PM »
So Clemson and PSU are playing - what were they rated before the season kicked off?
“I will honour Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year." - Ebenezer Scrouge

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #438 on: Today at 01:17:50 PM »
So Clemson and PSU are playing - what were they rated before the season kicked off?
Preseason AP:
  • #2 Penn State 
  • #4 Clemson 


847badgerfan

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #439 on: Today at 01:30:34 PM »
Urban Meyer on G5 teams in the College Football Playoff: 'It's not fair to the players involved'
Urban Meyer on G5 teams in the College Football Playoff: 'It's not fair to the players involved'
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #440 on: Today at 01:50:46 PM »
So Clemson and PSU are playing - what were they rated before the season kicked off?
I told my friends that game is like 2 millionaires running into each other at a McDonalds.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #441 on: Today at 02:48:41 PM »
Urban Meyer on G5 teams in the College Football Playoff: 'It's not fair to the players involved'
Urban Meyer on G5 teams in the College Football Playoff: 'It's not fair to the players involved'
lotta things aren't fair
hell, the players could have went to purdue and not have been involved - would that be more fair?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #442 on: Today at 03:19:37 PM »
Meyer knows about the big, fat lie better than anyone.

In 04, he went undefeated at Utah and didn't sniff the NC.
In 08, he won the NC at Florida over an undefeated Utah who didn't sniff it.

The G5 wants their seat at the table and have it, but the reality is that situation makes it even less likely they'll win a NC, because they'd have to do it on the field.  They actually had a better chance at 84ing into an accidental NC when they didn't have a seat at the table.

They COULD create their own division of football and be realistic, identifying their own NC, but then they couldn't bitch and moan about fairness.
Bitching just to bitch.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #443 on: Today at 03:31:15 PM »
D1 is already subdivided in football.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #444 on: Today at 03:33:38 PM »
D1 is already subdivided in football.
Sigh.

Thanks.

Further subdivided.

You're on an IEP.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #445 on: Today at 03:36:09 PM »
You want three levels of D1 football? 

More? 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #446 on: Today at 03:37:42 PM »
I want there to be no big, fat lie.  

Having Alabama and Ohio State in the same division as Kennesaw State is fucking stupid.  And EVERYONE knows it.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CFP Thread
« Reply #447 on: Today at 03:41:43 PM »
The range of quality in FCS is more vast than that. 

One of the conferences is non scholarship. It's basically a place for D1 basketball schools to park their D3 caliber football teams, and call it D1. Then there's the HBCUs.... 

 

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