Yeah that’s kind of how I read it too. I think they’ve already said that Cincinnati is out no matter what happens.
But other than that I think all of the teams can still get in by winning out including Michigan ( as an 11-1 team with a win over OSU) Oklahoma and even Wake Forest.
Well they clearly can't all get in by winning out because it is possible for one of Bama/UGA, one of MSU/tOSU/M, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Wake to all win out. That is five teams and one of them would necessarily have to be left out.
As I see it:
Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma all control their own destiny. I realize that Oklahoma is at #8 behind three one-loss teams (Oregon, tOSU, and Michigan) but I think that if they win out and finish at 13-0 and B12 Champs, they'd be in ahead of any of those teams. After that it gets tricky.
First things first, I think everybody behind there is rooting for either an UGA or Bama loss before the SECCG or an UGA win in the SECCG because if UGA/Bama both end up 12-1 they are almost certainly both in but if either of them ends up 11-2 or worse and a non-Champion they are almost certainly out.
#4 Oregon:
I think the Ducks' position is tenuous. They are the ONLY ranked team in their league so while MSU, tOSU, M, and OU will all be playing other ranked teams the Ducks don't get any more chances. They'd certainly be behind an undefeated MSU and I think they'd almost certainly be behind a 1-loss Michigan that could match their best win and add multiple additional wins against ranked opponents. The only potential 1-loss B1G team that they *MIGHT* end up ranked ahead of would be tOSU due to the H2H but even that is no guarantee. If tOSU and Oregon both get to 12-1 the Ducks will have that H2H but the Buckeyes will have basically every other argument. They probably are really only "safe" vis-a-vis the B1G Champ if the B1G-W Champion wins the B1GCG.
Aside from the threats in the B1G, Oregon also faces the possibility that either Oklahoma or Wake could pass them by going undefeated as well.
#5 Ohio State:
It would REALLY help the Buckeyes if the Ducks would hurry up and lose another game because if not then that H2H will be a problem because a lot of people will see it as THE determining factor. Aside from that, the Buckeyes could also be surpassed by an undefeated OU or Wake so even if they win out I think they need a little help.
#6 Cincinnati:
I don't think, as others have said, that Cincy has literally no chance, but their chance is pretty minimal. Without going into detail they basically need chaos. They are already behind three 1-loss P5 teams (Bama, Oregon, tOSU) and the two undefeated P5 teams behind them would almost certainly pass them if they remain undefeated as would 1-loss Michigan, OkSU, or Baylor if any of them win out. I think they can't realistically get in unless the alternative is a P5 team with at least two losses so they need chaos.
#7 Michigan:
Despite being lower ranked than the Ducks and Buckeyes, I think that the Wolverines might be in a better spot than either of them. Obviously they control their own destiny wrt tOSU but unlike tOSU, I am absolutely confident that a 12-1 Michigan would be ahead of a 12-1 Oregon. Michigan's biggest problem right now is MSU because they absolutely need MSU to lose a couple of games. I said I was confident that they would get in ahead of Oregon at 12-1 but 12-1 assumes that they make it to and win the B1GCG. Michigan's biggest problem is that they do NOT control their own destiny in that regard.
#9 Wake:
The ACC is horrible and that didn't hold Clemson back these past few years because Clemson had a history of winning CFP games and CFP Championships, Wake doesn't. They would obviously be last among undefeated P5 Champions and also behind a 1-loss UGA, Bama, or both. Realistically they would probably also be behind a 1-loss Oregon or B1G Champion.
#10 Notre Dame:
The Irish have two humongous disadvantages compared to the other 1-loss P5 teams. First they don't have a CG so they will not get that final chance to shine against a highly ranked opponent. Second, they have that pesky loss to Cincinnati which probably keeps them behind the Bearcats unless the Bearcats lose. The Irish need a LOT of help.
#11 and #12 OkSU and Baylor:
I'm taking these two together because their situation is nearly identical. By winning out either one would almost certainly finish as a 12-1 B12 Champ which would get them ahead of OU (because they'd have to beat them at least once to get there), ND, Cincy, and at least two out of three of MSU/tOSU/M. That only gets them to #6 so they still need two more losses.
Everyone else:
Probably no chance. In theory one of them could maybe make it with enough upsets ahead of them but it would require a LOT of upsets that cumulatively have almost no chance of all happening.
